Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 6

I was fine with 8-7 last week as I didn't feel especially strong about any of the slate's games. My best bet (the Raiders) was terrible, and I went 2-2-1 in the Supercontest which was okay under the circumstances. (I had a tie in the Supercontest and none in my weekly record because their line for Cowboys-Texans was three, whereas ours was 3.5.)

This week, I feel more strongly about a number of games - you can see the lines I set here. In particular, I like the Browns, Redskins and Falcons. I'll post my best bet in Staff Picks and my Supercontest picks in the comments.

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THURSDAY NIGHT

Eagles -3 at Giants

I made this line a pick 'em, so I should be thrilled to take the Giants, but I have misgivings about it. The Giants are coming off an improbable last-second loss (something I like to avoid), have been terrible at home and Eli Manning and the offensive line match up poorly against a stout Eagles front seven. On the positive side, I like the home team on a short week (though this is an easy trip for the Eagles), the Giants actually played the Eagles tough last year (when the Eagles were good) and the Eagles secondary is struggling. I suppose I'll stick to my guns and take the points.

Eagles 24 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Cardinals +10.5 at Vikings

I made this line exactly 10.5, so it's more or less a coin flip. I like the Cardinals a lot better with Josh Rosen, so I'll take the points here.

Vikings 23 - 13

Chargers -1 at Browns

The Browns came through last week, and I like them again in this spot as slight home dogs against a Chargers team that almost always has better metrics than results. Take the points.

Browns 24 - 20

Bears -3 at Dolphins

If Mitchell Trubisky has turned a corner after his six-TD game, then the Bears are legitimate contenders. We can't know that until he plays, though, in which case, the Dolphins, awful as they've been the last two games, are probably the value. Take the home dog.

Bears 20 - 19

Panthers +1 at Redskins

I see these as roughly equal teams, Monday night's debacle notwithstanding, so I'm happy to give up only one point in Washington. Take the Redskins.

Redskins 23 - 20

Colts +2.5 at Jets

This is exactly where I set the line too. The Jets looked great last week, but Andrew Luck is back, and he's so much better than Sam Darnold right now. I'll take the points.

Colts 26 - 20

Steelers +2.5 at Bengals

I set this line at three - these are roughly equal teams and fierce rivals. The Steelers were good last week, but tend to struggle on the road. Take the Bengals.

Bengals 23 - 20

Buccaneers +3.5 at Falcons

The Falcons got worked last week in Pittsburgh, but before that they were toe to toe with the Saints, crushed the Panthers and barely lost in Philadelphia and against the Bengals. I think they're a good deal better than the Bucs and should get right at home. Lay the wood.

Falcons 34 - 27

Seahawks -3 vs. Raiders (in London)

Derek Carr has to stop throwing interceptions on first and goal. Third and long from midfield, it's okay to take a chance, but Carr has just been moronic. That said, I like the Raiders on a neutral field getting the full field goal, though not as much as I thought I did before I realized the game was in London.

Raiders 24 - 23

Bills +8.5 at Texans

I made this line eight, so I should be (barely) on the Bills, but they simply have no passing game right now. Deshaun Watson is day-to-day with a chest injury, so I'll let that be the tie-breaker. Take the points.

Texans 21 - 13

LATE GAMES

Rams -7 at Broncos

I laid the wood last week in Seattle, and this is a similar game - tough road venue, desperate team, seven-point spread. But I'm going back to the well. The Rams were unlucky to have two receivers concussed, and I doubt they'll let the Broncos run roughshod over them the way the Seahawks did. Moreover, Case Keenum is no Russell Wilson. Lay the tree.

Rams 34 - 20

Jaguars -3 at Cowboys

I truly despise Jason Garrett and the Cowboys, but the Jaguars' strength - covering opposing wideouts - isn't important in this game, and Blake Bortles was terrible last week against a mediocre defense. Take the points.

Jaguars 17 - 16

Ravens -3 at Titans

The Titans lost in Buffalo, but this is too many points at home in what should be an ugly slugfest. Take the home dog.

Ravens 15 - 13

SUNDAY NIGHT

Chiefs +3.5 at Patriots

I set this line at three, and while the Patriots are tough at home in prime time, the Chiefs are at least as good and probably better. Andy Reid's in-game management makes me nervous, though, and Bill Belichick will have his team ready with 10 days to prepare. Even so, I'll take the points.

Patriots 33 - 30

MONDAY NIGHT

49ers +9.5 at Packers

The Niners probably are a good buy-low here, but I set this line at 10.5 because Aaron Rodgers is better at home, and C.J. Beathard is not good. It feels like the sucker side, but I'll lay the wood.

Packers 31 - 17

For the podcast version of this article, click here

Last week, I went 8-7 to put me at 45-30-3 on the year, lost my best bet, the Raiders (2-3 overall), and went 2-2-1 in the Supercontest (15-9-1). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.