Beating the Book: Chris Liss Handicaps Week 3

Week 2 was okay. I went 9-6-1 overall, and won my best bet, but going 2-3 in the Supercontest (after being 2-1 heading into the Sunday night game) was disappointing.

Once again, I made my own lines before looking at the actual ones, and this week, I hewed to them closely after changing my Chiefs lean last week and losing with the Steelers.

My favorites as of now are the Jaguars, Cardinals, Ravens, 49ers and Lions. I'll post my best bet in Staff Picks and my Supercontest picks in the comments and in the #arealmanwould slack room.

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THURSDAY NIGHT

Jets +3 at Browns

These are roughly equal teams, so this strikes me as the right line. But all things being equal, take the home team on the short week. Lay the wood.

Browns 24 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Colts +6.5 at Eagles

I made this line seven initially, and I'll stand by my instincts. The Colts are better coached and improved on defense since last year, but Carson Wentz is back, and the Eagles should be focused off an upset loss. Lay the wood.

Eagles 27 - 20

Bengals +3 at Panthers

This is where I had it, and it's probably the right line between two roughly equal teams. It's a coin flip, but give me the Panthers.

Panthers 20 - 16

Titans +6.5 at Jaguars

I had this line at 10.5(!) and thought it would be 9.5, assuming Blaine Gabbert is still the quarterback. The Titans won last week, but it took at fake punt TD among other things. The Jaguars might be a little comfortable after handling the Patriots last week, but that's my only real concern. I'd expect the defense to smother Gabbert or Marcus Mariota. Lay the wood.

Jaguars 23 - 9

Saints +3 at Falcons

This is the obvious number, and the one I had too. The Falcons have looked better so far this year, but injuries on defense have hurt them. I'll take the points, but I don't feel strongly about it.

Saints 24 - 23

Broncos +5 at Ravens

I made this line 5.5, so I'm on the Ravens who have extra rest, are tougher at home and who should get after Case Keenum. Lay the wood.

Ravens 23 - 13

Giants +6 at Texans

The Giants looked embarrassingly bad Sunday night against the Cowboys, and Eli Manning is almost certainly done. But this is a big line for a Texans team that can't protect its QB, and the Giants offense can't be as bad as last week. I made this line 4.5, so I'm taking the points.

Texans 24 - 20

Raiders +3 at Dolphins

I've been defending Jon Gruden from the stats-police all summer, so I assumed I'd be on the Raiders against the 2-0 Dolphins. Imagine my surprise when I saw this line was only three. My line was a meager 3.5, and I guessed the real line would be 5.5, so I'm on the Dolphins.

Dolphins 27 - 23

Packers -3 at Redskins

I made this line two, so I'm on Washington. They played badly last week, but there's a lot of variance week to week. Take the points.

Packers 24 -23

Bills +16.5 at Vikings

These massive lines are always tough. The Vikings could win 42-0, but don't mistake the obviousness and magnitude of the potential loss with its likelihood. (I guessed and made this line 16.5 thanks to Bills fan Kevin Payne posting it on Twitter before I did the exercise.) I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the points.

Vikings 21 - 6

49ers +6.5 at Chiefs

The Chiefs are an exciting team, no doubt, but it's time to sell high here. The 49ers should keep up against a beatable defense and make this game close. Take the points.

49ers 31 - 30

LATE GAMES

Chargers +7 at Rams

The Chargers can hang with anyone, and they don't have to travel anywhere, so they're probably the value here. I just hate backing them against a well-coached team. I made this line seven, and I'll do the square thing and lay the wood.

Rams 30 - 20

Bears -6 at Cardinals

I don't remember what hallucinogenic substance I was on, but I made this line a pick 'em. The Cardinals are terrible, and the Bears defense looks good, but this is way too many points for the Bears on the road off a short week. Take Arizona.

Cardinals 16 - 13

Cowboys +1 at Seahawks

I made this line a pick 'em, so I guess I'm supposed to take Dallas here, even though I despise Jason Garrett, and I don't like teams playing in Seattle. Still, I'll hold my nose and do it - Pete Carroll seems out to lunch, and the Seahawks are coming off an even shorter week than the Cowboys.

Cowboys 20 - 19

SUNDAY NIGHT

Patriots -6.5 at Lions

I made this line 4.5. Maybe the Patriots integrate Josh Gordon into the gameplan right away, but otherwise, they're a dink and dunk passing team, and the Lions should be able to hang with them at home. Take the points.

Patriots 27 - 23

MONDAY NIGHT

Steelers -1 at Buccaneers

The Steelers are a mess. They tied the Browns and lost at home to the Chiefs, Le'Veon Bell is still holding out, and now Antonio Brown is AWOL. Still, I expect Brown to be back, and Ryan Fitzpatrick to come back to earth. I made this line 2.5, and it's only one, so I'll take the Steelers.

Steelers 27 - 20

Last week, I went 9-6-1 to put me at 16-14-2 on the year, won my best bet, the Bengals (2-0 overall), and went 2-3 in the Supercontest (6-4). Last year I went 117-125-14 on the season, 12-4-1 on best bets, 43-39-3 in the Supercontest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,545-2,395 (51.5%), not including ties.