This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
This is the 17th year I've written this column, and I'm back to square one. That is, the way I handicapped games with my brother in 1999 is the way I'm doing it now. For a while I got into a "fade the public" ideology which worked for a short while but like all ideologies eventually failed when confronted with real events over time. Last year, I decided I'd call it as I saw it, irrespective of what the public or the "sharps" were doing, and I had my best results in nearly a decade.
So that's the policy going forward - no super savvy contrarian stuff, no concern with whether I have 15 underdogs or 15 road teams in a given week - it's just whatever I happen to feel about the game and a couple sentences explaining that impression, knowing the explanation does not remotely constitute a rigorous argument. In fact, the argument is almost beside the point. Every line is the market's equilibrium for a game at a given time, the sum total of bets for and against. Of course, there's an plausible argument for either side, logic that cuts both ways. The key, I've come to believe, is not to get caught up in that, but simply to observe a lot of football, pay attention to those observations and trust your own judgment. The reasoning comes after the fact.
Like last year, I'll pick some best bets - games I'd put real money on each week and track my record on those separately. I went 18-12 on those (60%) in 2014, a success rate I'd love to duplicate. The trick will be letting them come to me and not forcing best bets just to have some every week.
This week, I particularly like the Jets, Bengals and Falcons - and I'll make the Jets an official best bet. Panthers-Jaguars, Buccaneers-Titans, Colts-Bills and Rams-Seahawks gave me the most trouble.
For what it's worth, I picked 12 favorites this week.
THURSDAY NIGHT
Steelers +7 at Patriots
The Patriots have to be the public pick here, the idea being Tom Brady will be especially intent on proving something after the offseason scandal. But the public isn't as dumb as it used to be, and the Steelers are not only missing Le'Veon Bell but also center Maurkice Pouncey. Lay the points.
Patriots 34 - 24
EARLY GAMES
Packers -6.5 at Bears
I'm inclined to lay the wood here because I don't think John Fox is a good coach, and the Bears would need to bring their "A" game to keep this competitive. Back Green Bay.
Packers 31 - 20
Chiefs +1 at Texans
I view these as roughly equal teams, and the Texans are laying just one point despite playing at home. Back Houston.
Texans 20 - 17
Browns +3 at Jets
I'm surprised the Jets are only laying three here at home. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a competent backup, and the Jets defense should have its way with Josh McCown and the motley collection of skill players with whom the team has surrounded him. Back New York.
Jets 19 - 9
Colts -3 at Bills
I hate this game. The smart money has to be on the Bills at home, but the Colts draw Tyrod Taylor in his first start, and Andrew Luck always seems to defy the predictive metrics. Back the Colts.
Colts 27 - 20
Dolphins -4 at Redskins
Maybe Kirk Cousins is the answer, but he was incredibly turnover prone in his extended audition last year, and the Miami defense is not the ideal way to ease into the season. Back Miami.
Dolphins 24 - 17
Panthers -3.5 at Jaguars
This game gave me the most trouble. I wanted to take the Panthers - Blake Bortles showed nothing as a rookie, and a healthy Cam Newton is a quality NFL quarterback. But Carolina finished below .500 last year, lost its top receiver and shouldn't be laying more than a field goal on the road. Back the Jaguars.
Panthers 20 - 17
Seahawks -4 at Rams
The Seahawks always seem to struggle against the Rams, and they're laying a fair amount of points on the road. I don't love the matchup of Nick Foles against that Seahawks defense, but I'll take the points. Back St. Louis.
Seahawks 17 - 16
LATE GAMES
Saints +2.5 at Cardinals
This line implies the Saints are better than the Cardinals, and I think that's a 50/50 proposition. Take the home team laying less than three.
Cardinals 24 - 20
Lions +3 at Chargers
This feels to me like a game that'll go down to the wire with either team having a chance to win, and as such I'll take the points. Back the Lions.
Chargers 24 - 23
Titans +3 at Buccaneers
Marcus Mariota looked a lot better than Jameis Winston this preseason, but it's hard for me to get past the Titans head coach, Ken Whisenhunt, who is beyond terrible. The Bucs upgraded their offensive coordinator this offseason, but it might take some time for the team to learn Dirk Koetter's system. I'd love to fade both teams, but I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the Bucs at home.
Buccaneers 17 - 13
Bengals -3.5 at Raiders
Maybe Derek Carr shows some miraculous improvement this year, but the Bengals are fully healthy again, and I expect them to handle the Raiders fairly easily. Lay the wood.
Bengals 27 - 13
Ravens +4.5 at Broncos
I think the Ravens are going to be good again, but this is a bad setup, travelling to play in the thin air Week 1. I also expect Peyton Manning to be in sync with his receivers from the start. Lay the points.
Broncos 27 - 20
SUNDAY NIGHT
Giants +6 at Cowboys
The Giants defense without Jason Pierre Paul has one strength, and that's its cover corners. But the linebackers and safeties are among the weakest in the league, and Dallas should be able to run at will. The Giants offense should be able to move the ball, but Eli Manning will have to play his "A" game to keep pace. Back Dallas.
Cowboys 30 - 23
MONDAY NIGHT
Eagles -3 at Falcons
Maybe Chip Kelly is a genius, and the Eagles will be really good. But they didn't make the playoffs last year, they're breaking in an entirely new cast of offensive players and they're laying points on the road against a team that plays much better in its own venue. Back Atlanta.
Falcons 24 - 23
Vikings -2.5 at 49ers
The Niners have been so decimated this offseason, they open as home dogs against the Vikings and rightly so. Maybe the new regime is better than we realize, and they have the team ready, but I think the Vikings will handle them, and the line is less than three. Back Minnesota.
Vikings 23 - 20
Incidentally, I'll be discussing some of these picks in the weekly East Coast Offense podcast
I went 135-116-5 in 2014, and best bets were 18-12-1. From 1999-2014, I've gone 2,068-1,880 (52.4%), not including ties.
