Best Ball 2026: Finding the Market's Blind Spots
Though it's not directly tied to fantasy, having a working knowledge of NFL odds is helpful for drafters in identifying how the oddsmakers view every offense. NFL betting sites are great at releasing odds for every game almost immediately after the schedule is released. We can take that data and learn some important stuff for our fantasy drafting purposes.
Not only can we quickly see who the oddsmakers view as the best/worst offenses, but we can also compare those figures to last year's totals to find which teams may be on the rise and which teams may be due some regression.
The point of this article is to get a snapshot of how the oddsmakers view all 32 offenses and compare it to how the fantasy best ball ADP markets value those same offenses. Spotting the meaningful differences can be helpful for us in either evading the landmines or finding some pockets of value in our drafts.
Remember you can keep tabs on our best ball rankings and best ball cheat sheet throughout draft season.
2026 Top Five Offenses in Implied Points Per Game
Strength of schedule ranked 1-32 with 1 being the easiest, 32 being the hardest. SoS ratings from ESPN's Mike Clay
| Team | Implied PPG | SoS | Win Total | SB Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 26.35 | 1 | 10.5 | +1700 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 26.03 | 2 | 9.5 | +1200 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 26.01 | 5 | 11.5 | +1100 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 25.87 | 30 | 11.5 | +550 |
| Buffalo Bills | 25.71 | 20 | 10.5 | +1000 |
We've got the usual suspects up at the top of the board. This list isn't too dissimilar from the Super Bowl odds leaderboard, frankly.
Here's how the best ball market is drafting each of these teams individually
- Lions: The market is all over the Lions and rightfully so. It's an offense that has RB1 (Jahmyr Gibbs), WR4 (Amon-Ra St. Brown) WR 25 (Jameson Williams) and TE6 (Sam LaPorta). It also helps that Detroit's tough finish to last season has aided them in getting one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this season. Even if Detroit can't recapture the salad days under Ben Johnson, it's hard to see this offense struggling with the amount of star power at the skill spots and the
- Rams: The Rams' offense isn't as concentrated at the top in terms of fantasy draft capital with two players (Puka Nacua and Kyren Williams) going in the first three rounds. However, Vegas still likes the Rams to lead the league in scoring. I am starting to wonder if the defensive improvements will mitigate the amount of trackmeets they'll be involved in. The Rams did rank sixth in PROE last year, I wonder if that number ticks down a little bit if they're holding as many second-half leads as Vegas expects. Puka Nacua is still a good pick in the top half of the first, but I find myself getting a little more interested in the Rams run game whether it's Kyren Williams in the third or Blake Corum in the 8th.
- Bills: Josh Allen is a force of nature. He is the only quarterback going in the first three rounds, and the market doesn't value the next quarterback (Lamar Jackson) until the fifth. James Cook goes ahead of him as a late first-round anchor, and then the market is largely unsold on the pass-catchers. DJ Moore is WR1 here, but WR27 in ADP. Khalil Shakir goes in the 120s, as does Dalton Kincaid. The market is telling us what we already know, that this offense basically runs through two guys. It's worked for them, but it's a little frustrating for fantasy players knowing that if you miss on either Cook or Allen, you're not getting access to one of the best offenses in football.
- Bengals: This team is loaded at the top skill spots; they're one of two teams with four players going in the first six rounds of best ball drafts. They're a pass-first team that ranked fifth in PROE last year despite Joe Burrow missing significant time. The defense should be a little bit better this year but the Bengals are still plenty comfortable in any sort of back-and-forth setup thanks to their offensive firepower. Cincinnati would be my bet to lead the league in scoring this year if I knew Burrow and Ja'Marr Chase would be healthy for the full season.
- Ravens: This is another top-heavy offense. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and Zay Flowers are drafted as elite options at their respective positions. Mark Andrews is next up, but he's going in the 10th round more often than not. All of this is to say that maybe it's justifiable to aim a little higher on the main cast of characters in this offense, or that there's unrealized value somewhere in this offense later in drafts.
2026 Bottom Five Offenses in Implied Points Per Game
| Team | Implied PPG | SoS | Win Total | SB Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 18.56 | 32 | 4.5 | +75000 |
| New York Jets | 18.56 | 7 | 5.5 | +30000 |
| Cleveland Browns | 18.76 | 4 | 6.5 | +35000 |
| Miami Dolphins | 19.03 | 31 | 4.5 | +40000 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 19.13 | 25 | 5.5 | +15000 |
This is where things get interesting to me. We know who the best offenses are pretty reliably. Finding the undervalued offenses is a great way to get leverage on the field. I always think back to the 2023 Texans as the prime example of a largely ignored offense that ended up smashing.
The fantasy ADP and the Vegas implied totals are telling us two different stories here. Fantasy players are spending premium draft capital on Ashton Jeanty, De'Von Achane, Brock Bowers, Jeremiyah Love, Trey McBride, Breece Hall and Garrett Wilson. Vegas is telling us that these are the worst offenses in the NFL. Something's gotta give.
The tool above aims to show how fantasy drafters are approaching all 32 teams vs how Vegas views them. If you slide the ADP weight all the way over to 100%, the Cardinals are the 12th most valuable offense in fantasy, the Raiders are 15th, and the Jets are 25th. The Dolphins are down at the bottom no matter how you slice it. It's really Achane and nobody else.
If you just go on what Vegas is telling us, those are among the worst offensive environments.
Fantasy production is, of course, more than just points on the scoreboard. All bad offenses are not created equal. Play count, offensive philosophy (PROE), and yards can still help us extract fantasy value from bad offenses.
On the Cardinals
Look at Arizona last year. There were some contextual things at play, like Kyler Murray and all of their running backs getting hurt, and them deciding to just go with a "F it, we're throwing it" approach that helped keep the Cardinals fantasy assets viable. They ranked 23rd in points but 19th in yards and 12th in plays.
So, I guess the lesson here might be that low implied point totals can signal a poor offensive environment, but there's still a path for fantasy success if the offense has tempo and plays with a pass-first philosophy. Being bad and being fun are not mutually exclusive.
I want to stick on Arizona for a minute. Last year might've been a black swan event. This offseason has made it highly unlikely for a repeat.
There's a new coaching staff and the team just spent the third overall pick in the draft on Jeremiyah Love, in addition to giving Tyler Allgeier a $12m deal. Also we might not get the primo target concentration that Trey McBride and Michael Wilson enjoyed last year if Marvin Harrison stays healthy.
We might be looking at a more balanced, more deliberate, and more boring version of bad in Arizona. That's where I get concerned about the fantasy community being this bullish on the Cardinals. Also worth noting that there's so much market trepidation about the quarterback situation that Jacoby Brissett is currently QB30 in ADP. The market is right to be concerned about drafting Brissett knowing he's unlikely to start the full season, especially down the stretch. But if we're that concerned about the QB play, how are there three Cardinals pass catchers going in the top 100? There's going to be at least one expensive wrong answer in this offense, if not more.
2026 Most Improved Offenses By Implied Totals
| Team | 2025 actual PPG | 2026 implied | Shift | 2026 Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LV | 14.2 | 19.28 | +5.08 | 28 |
| TEN | 16.7 | 20.74 | +4.04 | 26 |
| NO | 18.0 | 21.63 | +3.63 | 23 |
| KC | 21.3 | 24.50 | +3.20 | 12 |
| LAC | 20.6 | 23.56 | +2.96 | 14 |
Now, let's get into the offenses that the oddsmakers see taking a step forward this year.
The Raiders are the one team that appears in both this section and the bottom five implied PPG table. The oddsmakers are at once saying that the Raiders will be markedly better this year on offense, but it doesn't really mean that much in the grand scheme given how low the 2025 baseline was.
Like the Cardinals, there's some tension between the Raiders from a real life and a fantasy perspective. Ashton Jeanty is going at the 1/2 turn in drafts now, and Bowers is the first tight end off the board. Also like the Cardinals, the Raiders have a new coaching staff coming this year.
Looking at this offseason, I tend to have more faith in the Raiders taking a leap this year. The Klint Kubiak hire is hard not to be excited about. There's also the improved offensive line, the expected upgrade at quarterback, and the sneaky good move to bring in Jalen Nailor this offseason.
The oddsmakers are stopping short of saying the Raiders are a formidable offense, but they're expecting real improvement. If the Raiders really do take a leap, who's to say that they don't improve by even 7.0 PPG or more? Again, 2025 sets the bar really low. Getting over the 22 PPG threshold would put the Raiders right around a top 20 offense.
Here are some thoughts on the other offenses expected to improve
- Titans: Similar to the Raiders in that it's a low bar to clear from last year. Offseason graded out well between the coaching hire and talent acquisition (Carnell Tate, Wan'Dale Robinson). I want to believe Cam Ward can take a step forward. If he does, the Titans might get out of the AFC South basement.
- Saints: The buzziest team from this group. We started to see things come together down the stretch last year as Tyler Shough looked like the QB of the future in NOLA. Another healthy season from Chris Olave + the Travis Etienne and Jordyn Tyson additions should help lock in those gains that we saw from this offense late in 2025.
- Chiefs: This seems pretty straightforward. It was basically a season from hell last year for the Chiefs. Are we allowed to mention that the Patrick Mahomes only missed three games though? They were 6-7 going into the game where he got injured. And the offense wasn't exactly humming. Still it's hard to see the Mahomes-led Chiefs stay down for long. It doesn't need to look like 2019 for it to register as a bounce back for them.
- Chargers: Going from Greg Roman to Mike McDaniel is such a massive upgrade that I'm not sure the oddsmakers are boosting the Chargers enough. If they can get through the season without losing both starting tackles, this offense is going to be scary. Banking on good injury luck is always a safe bet with the Chargers, right?
2026 Offenses Trending Down
| Team | 2025 actual PPG | 2026 implied | Shift | 2026 Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NE | 26.5 | 23.59 | -2.91 | 13 |
| IND | 27.4 | 23.28 | -4.12 | 16 |
| LAR | 30.0 | 25.87 | -4.13 | 4 |
| SEA | 29.2 | 25.00 | -4.20 | 9 |
| JAX | 27.7 | 23.18 | -4.52 | 18 |
This is an interesting list. I think what it's telling us is that Vegas doesn't fully buy what these offenses did last year and expects them to come back to earth to some degree. Outside of the Rams, each of these teams significantly outperformed expectation last year. I understand where the oddsmakers are coming from. The regression monster is real.
If there's one team I'm circling from this group as the regression candidate, it's Indianpolis. Their season before Daniel Jones' injury was disorienting. How were they doing all that? Danny Dimes landing deep shot after deep shot to Alec Pierce? Tyler Warren pacing for one of the best rookie TE seasons we've ever seen before cooling off? Jonathan Taylor playing all 17 games for the first time since 2021? It was a perfect storm.
Fastforward to now. Daniel Jones is rehabbing a torn Achilles. Alec Pierce had offseason ankle injury that may keep him out into training camp. Michael Pittman and Braden Smith are gone.
2025 really might end up looking like a fluke for Indy. I'd rather get out a year early on most of their fantasy weapons aside from Taylor and Josh Downs.
On the Jaguars
The Jags are arguably the most important offense to get right for fantasy this year. If nothing else, they're the most polarizing.
They got ridiculously hot after they bye last year, ranking second in points scored from Week 9 through the end of the regular season. There was a lot going on. Trevor Lawrence looked like he officially arrived. Travis Hunter was on IR. Brian Thomas was a nonfactor for the most part. Jakobi Meyers, Parker Washington and Brenton Strange were carrying this passing game, just like we all expected.
The market doesn't know what to do with this team. It has no Top 50 picks by ADP. It also has eight players who go between pick 50 and 150. The top three receivers go within 40 picks of each other.
Vegas doesn't seem to be buying that the Jags do it again this year. The fantasy market is split on where the production is coming from. Parker Washington vs Brian Thomas is ruining friendships across the country. Bhayshul Tuten is precariously slotted in the RB Dead Zone.
There's obviously a ton of potential here. But the wide range of outcomes is making this offense one of the toughest to solve. Something tells me we'll be revisiting this offense another time or two during draft season.
