This article is part of our Beating the Book series.
After a 3-1 week in the Wild Card games, I went 1-3 last week, though I will forgive myself the Saints loss. The Titans were a stupid bet, given the coaching disparity, and it was over from the moment Mike Mularkey punted on 4th-and-2 in plus territory, down seven on the road as a 13.5-point dog. The Falcons were knocking on the door in the closing seconds, but they would have had to call a decent play (too much to ask), and also make the two-point conversion.
This week, I like the Jaguars a lot and am lukewarm on the Vikings.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Jaguars +9 at Patriots
I could see the Patriots blowing them out, especially if they get off to a fast start and force Blake Bortles to play from behind. And the Patriots match up better than most teams against the Jaguars with Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis being the focal points of the offense rather than outside receivers. Still, I don't think it'll go that way. The Jaguars offense got it done in Pittsburgh, and I expect them to move the ball consistently against an average Pats defense. Tom Brady will make smart decisions, but the Jacksonville back four are good enough to turn him into a dink-and-dunk artist and limit big plays, last week's Ben Roethlisberger explosion notwithstanding (only Martavis Bryant was open on his four long TDs, and Roethlisberger just happened to make one-in-a-hundred throws.)
The teams that have taken down Brady and the
After a 3-1 week in the Wild Card games, I went 1-3 last week, though I will forgive myself the Saints loss. The Titans were a stupid bet, given the coaching disparity, and it was over from the moment Mike Mularkey punted on 4th-and-2 in plus territory, down seven on the road as a 13.5-point dog. The Falcons were knocking on the door in the closing seconds, but they would have had to call a decent play (too much to ask), and also make the two-point conversion.
This week, I like the Jaguars a lot and am lukewarm on the Vikings.
AFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Jaguars +9 at Patriots
I could see the Patriots blowing them out, especially if they get off to a fast start and force Blake Bortles to play from behind. And the Patriots match up better than most teams against the Jaguars with Rob Gronkowski and Dion Lewis being the focal points of the offense rather than outside receivers. Still, I don't think it'll go that way. The Jaguars offense got it done in Pittsburgh, and I expect them to move the ball consistently against an average Pats defense. Tom Brady will make smart decisions, but the Jacksonville back four are good enough to turn him into a dink-and-dunk artist and limit big plays, last week's Ben Roethlisberger explosion notwithstanding (only Martavis Bryant was open on his four long TDs, and Roethlisberger just happened to make one-in-a-hundred throws.)
The teams that have taken down Brady and the Patriots over the last decade have been of the young, hungry, athletic variety, able to get pressure with four rushers and cover on the back end. The Jaguars fit this model to a tee, and Doug Marrone showed last week a willingness to take smart chances as a big underdog, meaning it's unlikely he'll get totally outcoached like Mike Mularkey did last week. So I'm taking the points, and I wouldn't be surprised if the Jaguars win outright.
Jaguars 24 - 23
NFC CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Vikings -3 at Eagles
The Eagles have to be the sharp side here as a home dog. And I'm concerned about the Vikings getting it back together after the emotional rollcoaster of a win they had last Sunday. Let's face it, they expected to be watching this one on TV before one of the most bizarre and improbable plays in NFL history. Can they not only pick up the pieces and get back to work, but go on the road and lay three points? The Eagles defense is stout against the run, but beatable against the pass, and the Vikings have the weapons to exploit it. Moreover, Nick Foles looked bad for most of the game before looking sharp on the team's fourth-quarter drive. I'm torn here, but with the line moving from three and a half to three, I'll take the public side and lay the wood. Back the Vikings.
Vikings 20 - 16
I went 1-3 against the spread in the Divisional Round, putting me at 4-4 overall in the playoffs. I was 117-125-14 on the season and 43-39-3 in the SuperContest. From 1999-2017, I've gone 2,428-2,270 (51.7%), not including ties.
