Beating The Book

It sounds impossible, but that's now two winning weeks in a row. Granted, they're 8-6/7-5-2 and not 10-4/11-3, but any improvement will do. And while I lost my best bet (Patriots), the three games on which my lines diverged the most from the market's (Saints, Titans and Raiders) all covered easily. (Don't ask why I foolishly made the Pats my best bet.) I also went 3-2 in the Supercontest, though that's now a lost cause. 

This week, I especially like the Titans, Bills and Jets. 

THANKSGIVING DAY 

Texans -3 at Lions

I made this line 2.5. I know the Lions are terrible, and Deshaun Watson is good, but as long as Matthew Stafford's thumb is okay, I'll take the full field goal with the home team that's used to playing on Thanksgiving. Back the Lions. 

Lions 27 - 26

Football Team +3 at Cowboys

This is exactly where I set the line. The Cowboys seem like the better team after their win in Minnesota, but my rule is when there's no daylight between my line and the market number, fade my emotional lean. Take the Team. 

Football Team 23 - 20

Ravens +5 at Steelers

This line was only four yesterday morning, which surprised me. I get it's a rivalry, and that the Ravens badly outgained them in their prior loss, but this a short week after Baltimore lost an overtime war with the Titans, while the Steelers breezed to a win in Jacksonville. I set it at 6.5. so I'm still on the Steelers. 

Steelers 27 - 20

EARLY GAMES

Raiders -3 at Falcons

I made this line 2.5 as the Raiders are pretty good, but the Falcons have been better since they fired Dan Quinn, and it's a road game for Las Vegas after a tough, hard-fought Sunday night loss to the Chiefs. I'd feel better if I knew Julio Jones were playing, but give me the home dog. 

Falcons 24 - 23

Cardinals -2.5 at Patriots

I had the Pats last week, and their lack of pass rush was a serious problem. Still, this is a cross-country trip and early body-clock game for the Cardinals in a cold-weather venue, Kyler Murray is banged up and not as polished as Deshaun Watson and they're laying wood, to boot. Give me the Pats. 

Patriots 20 - 19

Giants -5.5 at Bengals

If you had told me a week ago this would be the line, I'd have known instantly Joe Burrow wasn't playing. I actually made it Giants minus seven, given their improving defense, offensive line and week of rest off the bye. Lay the wood. 

Giants 31 - 17

Browns -6.5 at Jaguars

I made this line 5.5, so I'm on the Jaguars, but this isn't a strong lean. 

Browns 24 - 19

Panthers +4 at Vikings

I thought this line would be higher, but the Vikings home losses to the Falcons and Cowboys apparently have reduced the price. Give me Minnesota at a discount. 

Vikings 29 - 23

Titans +3.5 at Colts

I was wrong about this matchup the first time, but I still think the Titans are the better team, so I'll go back to the well. Take the points. 

Titans 27 - 24

Chargers +5.5 at Bills

Anthony Lynn is Santa Claus when it comes to giving away points and time on the clock, while the Bills have played well of late and have the advantage of an early game and cold-weather venue. Lay the wood. 

Bills 31- 16

Dolphins -7 at Jets

I loved auto-betting the Dolphins every week because all they did was cover, but they were heavy on big plays and light on sustained offensive success. They should bounce back against the Jets, but this is a big number, and the Jets are starting (barely if you squint) to look like merely a bad NFL team rather than performance art. Take the points. 

Dolphins 26 - 20

LATE GAMES

Saints -6 at Broncos

I don't love buying the Broncos off a win, and the Saints might be the NFL's best team. But Taysom Hill is the kind of QB who gets solved before too long, it's a road game in altitude, and the Broncos defense showed up last week. Take the points. 

Saints 24 - 20

49ers +7 at Rams

I made this line 7.5, so I'm narrowly on the Rams, but I don't love it. The Rams are coming off a big win and short week, while the Niners are well coached, beat the Rams the first time and coming off the bye. 

Rams 27 - 19

Chiefs -3.5 at Buccaneers

I'm on the Bucs here, despite Tom Brady's poor showing Monday night. The Chiefs will light up their secondary, but Tampa should move the ball consistently too and keep it close enough. Take the points. 

Chiefs 31 - 30

SUNDAY NIGHT

Bears +8.5 at Packers

I made this line only eight, so that puts me on the Bears, but I neither feel strongly about it nor look forward to watching it. 

Packers 28 - 20

MONDAY NIGHT

Seahawks -5.5 at Eagles

Like everyone else, I hate the Eagles, but getting this many points in a standalone Monday night home game against a team with a bad defense and offensive line is enough for me. Give me the first-place team. 

Seahawks 27  - 23

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I went 8-6 last week to bring my season-long record to 76-82-3, lost my best bet (Patriots 3-8) and went 3-2 in the Supercontest to go 25-28-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.