Beating The Book

Last week was shaping up to be a brutal one, but after a comeback by the Bears, and miracle comeback by the Broncos and wins on Sunday and Monday nights, I went 6-8, lost my best bet (Ravens) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest. 

This week, I especially like the Titans, Saints and Patriots. 

For the podcast version of the article click here. 

THURSDAY NIGHT

Packers -5.5 at 49ers

The 49ers have lost all their good players and starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. The Packers might be down to fourth- and fifth-string running backs (though Aaron Jones could play.) In the end, this was too many points to lay on the road. Take the 49ers. 

Packers 27 - 23

EARLY GAMES

Seahawks -3 at Bills

I made this line three, and it is three. I think Buffalo's more overrated than Seattle, so give me the Seahawks. 

Seahawks 31 - 27

Broncos +4 at Falcons

This is exactly where I set the line too. I'll fade the Broncos coming off a dramatic win and having to travel. Take the Falcons. 

Falcons 27 - 20

Bears +5.5 at Titans

I made this line 8.5, as I think the Titans are in the top tier, while the Bears are an average team. Lay the wood. 

Titans 24 - 16

Lions +4 at Vikings

The Vikings bludgeoned the Packers last week, but I'll sell high here. I don't think much of the Lions, but Matthew Stafford should move the ball against that defense. Take the points. 

Vikings 27 - 24

Ravens -2.5 at Colts

I made this line Ravens plus three, so I'm on the Colts, though I liked it a lot better when Baltimore was laying the full field goal. I dread backing Philip Rivers against a good defense, but the Colts defense is also good, the Ravens just got done with a war, and Lamar Jackson has been erratic and is now missing Pro Bowl left tackle Ronnie Stanley. Take the points. 

Ravens 24 - 23

Panthers +10.5 at Chiefs

I made this line 14, so I'm probably on the sucker side, but it is what it is. If the Chiefs throw down field to Tyreek Hill and Mecole Hardman, they can name their score. Lay the wood. 

Chiefs 37 - 23

Texans -7 at Jaguars

I had this at 6.5, and now it's moved up to seven which puts me on Jake Luton and the Jaguars. 

Texans 26 - 20

Giants +3 at Football Team

This is where I set the line, and when it's a tie, be a homer. The Giants have gone toe to toe with the Rams, Eagles and Buccaneers too, so I like getting points, so long as Danny Dimes doesn't give the game away. 

Giants 20 - 19

LATE GAMES

Raiders +1.5 at Chargers

I made this line three. The Raiders are solid, but the Chargers have the better quarterback and better pass rush. 

Chargers 27 - 24

Steelers -13.5 at Cowboys

I made this line 8.5 before I discovered Andy Dalton was out. I have no idea who will start for Dallas, but it won't be Ben DiNucci, and it won't be anyone good. I suppose I'll hold my nose and take the Cowboys. 

Steelers 19 - 6

Dolphins +4.5 at Cardinals

It's hard to have a read on Tua Tagovailoa because he barely had to do anything last week, but I think these are roughly equal teams, in which case the 4.5 is enough. Take the points. 

Cardinals 24 - 21

SUNDAY NIGHT

Saints +5.5 at Buccaneers

If Michael Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders are back I think these are roughly equal teams. The Giants showed the Tampa secondary was beatable (even if Dimes missed all the throws), and the Saints also run block and defend the run. Take the points. 

Saints 27 - 24

MONDAY NIGHT

Patriots -7 at Jets

This is a huge number for the current edition of the Pats to lay on the road, and yet the Jets don't seem like an NFL team. Cam Newton needs a get-well game, and I think he makes good. Lay the points. 

Patriots 27 - 17

For the podcast version of the article click here.

I went 6-8 last week to bring my season-long record to 54-64-1, lost my best bet (Ravens 2-6) and went 2-3 in the Supercontest to go 17-22-1 overall. Last year, I finished 127-123-6 on the regular season, 8-9 on best bets and 43-40-2 in the Super Contest. In 2018, I went 141-106-9 on the season, 10-7 on best bets, 48-36-1 in the Super Contest. From 1999-2019, I've gone 2,690-2,496 (51.9%), not including ties.