College Capper: Best Bets Week 8

Chris' Picks

Hey - a winning Week 7! I'm claiming Pitt as a win, as the number had moved amply up to where they covered by the time the column was published, as noted in the comments. I'm also now 3-0 in games to stay away from, most recently hinting at FSU covering against UNC. The most obvious line here is Alabama (-20). I'm not saying stay away from it, and I'm sure as heck not taking the Vols. I'll likely hammer the first half, but something seems amiss. Lots of road favorites for me this week, which usually isn't a winning strategy. Let's buck that trend!

Tulsa (-10) at South Florida (Friday)

 I believe in Bulls' head coach Jeff Scott and his offensive mind. But I just don't think USF is a good offensive team just yet -- this is a major rebuild. Yes, they scored 37 last week and could be improving. But putting up 25.5 ppg against The Citadel and ECU isn't impressive. They have only four TD passes to date, average 5.7 yards per attempt, and 3.97 yards per rush. Tulsa's defense meanwhile is allowing 3.17 YPC and 6.7 YPA...doing so against Oklahoma State and UCF. Their offense isn't great, but they won't need to score a ton to cover.

Florida State (+5) at Louisville

Most logic has Louisville snapping a four-game losing streak and winning here. It's a rebound spot against an FSU side likely due for letdown following an upset of UNC. The 'Noles were shut out in the second half and still held on, and they completed only eight passes. I'm just going to go against my own logic and push the angle that FSU is finding is rhythm under Mike Norvell. I like quarterback Jordan Travis to exploit a getable Cardinals run defense. It's also a revenge game for Travis, who transferred from Louisville. FSU has plenty of issues defensively, but in the end, I'll take the points and the momentum. This opened at (-9), so I'm hoping we see some later action on Louisville and possibly drive the number up a tick.

Virginia Tech (-8.5) at Wake Forest

You know what's coming from the Hokies, a steady dose of rushing attempts. They rank second nationally in rushing, averaging 312.0 YPG and 6.9 YPC, scoring 15 times. It's an attack that sits between option offense Air Force and Army. The feeling is it's that simple. Wake ranks 62nd against the run, and have allowed nine rushing scores in their three conference games. They lost to an N.C. State team that Virginia Tech beat by 21, and the Hokies are about as close to fully healthy as they've been all season, giving their defense some much-needed depth, which they didn't have two weeks ago at UNC. 

South Carolina (+6) at LSU

I'd likely immediately yank this if I knew Tigers' QB Myles Brennan was going to play, but at this point, that seems unlikely. A green quarterback is likely under center, and pairing that with a struggling run game that's averaging 96.7 YPG and 3.2 YPC, and I like getting points here, even if on the road. LSU has serious defensive issues too, particularly against the pass, allowing Missouri to toss for 406 yards. These two teams both beat Vanderbilt 41-7, and while that's never a tell-all, there are just more questions on the Tigers side than the Gamecocks.

Marshall (-17)  at Florida Atlantic

I liked this a lot better when it opened at (-13.5), but I think Marshall is a pretty solid football team on all fronts and I was not impressed with the Owls in Willy Taggert's debut. I also assume they'll be at least somewhat shorthanded due to a combination of positive tests and/or contact tracing. They put up a mere 21 points against Charlotte, throwing for just 98 yards. Yes, the run game was decent, but I'll take Marshall's third-ranked run defense to shut that down. The Herd are allowing just 2.4 YPC, and are battle-tested, beating Appalachian State. Quarterback Grant Wells has impressed and can offer offensive balance against the Owls' defense that gave up over 300 yards to the 49ers, and RB Brenden Knox will be the best skill player on the field. 

Last week: 4-1, Season: 15-17-2

GREG'S PICKS

Stop me if you've heard this one before, last week I went 3-2. For the fourth consecutive week, I ended up one game above .500, but unlike the previous week, I felt a bit unfortunate that I missed out on the fourth win. The three wins I did pick up were fairly easy once again as the Tulane and Alabama overs hit with ease and the North Texas over hit with plenty of time to spare on the clock. There was a bad loss, however, as Tennessee not only didn't cover, not only didn't win, but wasn't even competitive against Kentucky. The game that prevented the sought after 4-1 record was West Virginia, which went up 28 with two minutes to play but allowed a kickoff return touchdown on the ensuing kick. What made that sting so much was the fact that Kansas hadn't scored since the 1st quarter and the chances of the Jayhawks driving down the field for the cover were next to nothing.   

Syracuse (+46) at Clemson

There are no numbers I could post here that would make my case for taking Syracuse in this spot. No, this pick is based on one thing and one thing alone – human nature. Everyone saw what Clemson did to Georgia Tech this past week. Everything went the way of the Tigers and the final score was an extremely ugly 73-7. Is Syracuse any better than Georgia Tech? Probably not, but whatever fire that was lit under Clemson this past week simply won't be there this week. Things have a way of evening out and in this case, that doesn't mean that Syracuse will make this a game, it simply means that Clemson simply can't play as well as it did last week.             

Kansas State (-20) vs Kansas

I mentioned last week that I was going to fade the Jayhawks until they prove me wrong and while they covered my line this past week, they didn't cover the closing line which fell below 21, so I'm going to continue to fade them. The Jayhawks looked better early in the game against WVU, but they did next to nothing over the final 45 minutes and I'm expecting that version of the Jayhawks to show up this week. Kansas State hasn't blown anyone out this season, but this will be its worst competition to date and that includes Arkansas State.              

Over (72.5) Central Florida vs Tulane 

UCF is a bit of a mess this year, well, on defense anyway. The Knights are allowing over 500 yards per game, 300 through the air and 200 on the ground. The 200 on the ground is important this week as Tulane moves the ball well on the ground, averaging 232 yards on the ground. UCF is going to be hopping mad after losing by one point this past week to Memphis, and the Knights will undoubtedly score a bunch of points, but as far as stopping Tulane, I'm not sure they are equipped to do so.           

Over (55.5) South Carolina at LSU

LSU's defense is an absolute mess right now and although I'm a little worried the Tigers might have fixed some things on their bye week, I don't think they've had enough time to get everything right. While South Carolina isn't a juggernaut on offense, neither is Mississippi State or Missouri and both of those teams went up and down the field with ease when they played LSU. As for the Tigers' offense, that's not an issue at all. LSU lost a lot of offense in the offseason, but there's still plenty left to go around. Unless the Tigers have fixed all of their issues on defense, this game should go over a relatively low total with ease.      

Minnesota (+3) vs. Michigan

I tried to stay away from any matchups involving teams in their first games of the season, but this one looks too good. If these two teams had played last season, I can't imagine that Michigan would have been favored and Minnesota looks to be just as good this season, if not better than it was last season. I'm not sure I can say the same for Michigan, but the absence of any hype whatsoever leads me to believe that expectations have dropped in Ann Arbor. This is a big game for the Gophers and they'll be ready for the big name that's coming their way. I'm also leaning over here as the Gophers bring nearly everyone back on offense, but they'll have some holes to plug on defense.          

Last Week: 3-2-0, Season: 15-16-0