This article is part of our Final Four Preview series.
A year of incredible March Madness upsets has left a seemingly unlikely Final Four matchup. 2023 is the first year in NCAA Tournament history where neither Final Four game features a 1, 2 or 3 seed. To get here, Miami has toppled the overall favorite in Houston as well as the No. 2 seed Texas. While UConn's run has been relatively easier, they have been absolutely dominant every step of the way. The two teams have nearly opposite styles of play, with the Hurricanes relying on their perimeter scoring to lead the way, while the Huskies dominate on the inside. UConn is looking to become the first non-1 or 2 seed to win it all since the school did in 2017.
Miami Hurricanes, Midwest Region No. 5 seed
Backcourt: The strength of the Hurricanes comes from their guard play. Nijel Pack and Isaiah Wong are capable of outscoring any duo in the country and can really light it up from downtown. During the NCAA Tournament, Pack is shooting 44.8 percent on 7.3 three-point attempts per game. Meanwhile, Wong has feasted at the charity stripe, converting 87.5 percent of his 6.0 free-throw attempts throughout March Madness. The duo has combined for an average of 2.3 steals per game this season. While they don't generate a lot of assists, their scoring gravity is crucial to Miami's success.
Frontcourt: Miami is incredibly undersized, with Norchad Omier and Jordan Miller both standing at 6-foot-7 in their frontcourt. Despite this, the Hurricanes have only been
A year of incredible March Madness upsets has left a seemingly unlikely Final Four matchup. 2023 is the first year in NCAA Tournament history where neither Final Four game features a 1, 2 or 3 seed. To get here, Miami has toppled the overall favorite in Houston as well as the No. 2 seed Texas. While UConn's run has been relatively easier, they have been absolutely dominant every step of the way. The two teams have nearly opposite styles of play, with the Hurricanes relying on their perimeter scoring to lead the way, while the Huskies dominate on the inside. UConn is looking to become the first non-1 or 2 seed to win it all since the school did in 2017.
Miami Hurricanes, Midwest Region No. 5 seed
Backcourt: The strength of the Hurricanes comes from their guard play. Nijel Pack and Isaiah Wong are capable of outscoring any duo in the country and can really light it up from downtown. During the NCAA Tournament, Pack is shooting 44.8 percent on 7.3 three-point attempts per game. Meanwhile, Wong has feasted at the charity stripe, converting 87.5 percent of his 6.0 free-throw attempts throughout March Madness. The duo has combined for an average of 2.3 steals per game this season. While they don't generate a lot of assists, their scoring gravity is crucial to Miami's success.
Frontcourt: Miami is incredibly undersized, with Norchad Omier and Jordan Miller both standing at 6-foot-7 in their frontcourt. Despite this, the Hurricanes have only been out-rebounded in one tournament game so far, and that was just by two to Texas. Their ability to compete on the glass is mainly due to Omier, who is averaging 13.3 rebounds in March Madness and 10.1 on the season. The sophomore center is a defensive powerhouse, tallying 1.2 blocks and 1.0 steals per game in 2022-23. Meanwhile, Miller's 15.3 points per game rank second on the team, and he is a legitimate threat from the outside.
X-Factor: Nisine Poplar is the team's X-Factor, as his scoring punch can really put Miami over the top. He has scored in double digits in three out of his four tournament appearances and has elevated his game on the biggest stage. The 6-foot-5 sophomore is averaging 12.0 points on 52.8 percent shooting from the field, a marked improvement from his 8.5 points and 47.2 field-goal percentage on the year. The one aspect of his game that has lagged behind is his three-point percentage, which has dipped from 38.4 percent on the season to 31.3 percent in the tournament. If Poplar can heat up from downtown, it might be impossible for UConn to keep up with the Hurricane's offense.
Who They Beat to Get Here:
Drake, 63-56
Indiana, 85-69
Houston, 89-75
Texas, 88-61
They'll win IF: They can compete inside. Miami is at a significant height disadvantage against UConn. With Alex Karaban standing at 6-foot-8, Adama Sanogo at 6-foot-9, and Donovan Clingan at 7-foot-2, the Huskies have three key rotation players taller than any Miami starter. UConn also ranks second in offensive rebounding percentage, while the Hurricanes rank 179th in defensive rebounding percentage. If Norchad Omier can continue his excellent stretch of play and not allow the Huskies' bigs to dominate the game, Miami's guard-centric offense could light them up from the perimeter. However, it might be impossible for the Hurricanes to overcome a significant rebounding disparity.
Prediction: I have been betting against Miami all tournament long, even predicting them to be upset by Drake in the first round (which nearly happened). Despite this, the Hurricanes have pulled off incredibly impressive upsets over No.1 Houston and No. 2 Texas to reach the Final Four after making the Elite Eight in 2022. However, no team looks more in form than UConn at the moment, and it feels tough to pick against them. They are 5.5-point favorites over Miami on Caesars Sportsbook for good reason. The Huskies have jumped all the way to the top spot in KenPom's rankings despite being a four-seed entering the tournament. UConn has won their four tournament games by margins of 24, 15, 23 and 28 leading up to the Final Four. They also seem like the worst possible matchup for Miami, as they only allow their opponents to shoot 29.7 percent from three on the year. Especially considering the obvious mismatch inside, I have to regrettably pick against Miami yet again.
--Michael Gillow
Connecticut Huskies, West Region No. 4 Seed
Backcourt: UConn's backcourt has no shortage of size in its starting lineup, with 6-5 Tristen Newton running the point and 6-5 sophomore Jordan Hawkins at the two. Newton, an East Carolina transfer, has filled the void left by RJ Cole admirably, as he's dishing out 4.7 assists per game while also shooting 37 percent from deep. Meanwhile, Hawkins is coming off an excellent weekend in which he posted consecutive 20+ point scoring games on the strength of nine 3-pointers. Nahiem Alleyne serves as the team's sixth man, with Joey Calcaterra and Hassan Diarra also getting some minutes off the bench. None of them are heavily involved in the offense, with Calcaterra being the most efficient of the three at 44 percent from long range.
Frontcourt: The Huskies go with three forwards in their starting lineup: 6-6 SF Andre Jackson, 6-8 PF Alex Karaban and 6-9 C Adama Sanogo. The offense runs through Sanogo, who is averaging 20 ppg and 9.8 rpg on 65 percent shooting through four NCAA tournament games. Jackson chips in as a jack of all trades, as he was two points and a board away from a triple-double against Gonzaga. Meanwhile, Karaban is no slouch either, as he's posting impressive shooting splits of 60/41/84 on the season. Sanogo is also able to play more aggressively on the defensive end with there not being much of a dropoff in his backup, as 7-2 freshman Donovan Clingan relieves him off the bench.
X-Factor: Clingan. It's been difficult for Clingan to get much playing time behind Sanogo, but he's made the most of his minutes when he's on the court. He's an excellent fill-in should Sanogo get in foul trouble, or perhaps UConn will look to get the 7-2 freshman center a little more time on the floor considering Miami's starting lineup doesn't include anyone over 6-7. His numbers have been about as efficient as you could imagine, shooting 65 percent from the floor while averaging a whopping 17.2 rebounds per 40 minutes. He's also made his presence known on the defensive end with his size, contributing nine blocks during the Huskies tournament run. Clingan has a bright future when he moves into a starting role.
Who they beat to get here:
Iona 87-63
Saint Mary's 70-55
Arkansas 88-65
Gonzaga 82-54
They'll win IF: The Huskies can held Nijel Pack in check. The Hurricanes' point guard is a big part of the team's success, as he's had a great tournament run, averaging 18.5 points and shooting 13-of-29 (44.8 percent) from three. He's mostly struggled in Miami's seven losses this season, where he's averaging just 10.5 points on 33 percent shooting with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. UConn has the guard size to make Pack uncomfortable and has made life difficult for quality opposing PGs (Aidan Mahaney and Daniss Jenkins) thus far. Miami has been able to survive despite poor games from Isaiah Wong and having to negotiate foul trouble with Norchad Omier, but it'll need a big game from Pack to have a chance at making the National Championship.
Prediction: Miami will certainly look to push the pace in this game, something it'll look to do against a moderately-paced UConn team to take them out of their comfort zone. The Hurricanes did a great job of that against a Houston squad that certainly didn't want to play that way. Miami has put on an offensive display with three consecutive 85+ point scoring games, and also found a way to win a slugfest against Drake in the first round. The Huskies, however, have had no trouble playing any style of play and have easily succeeded against three teams that have played up-tempo. With four wins by 15+ thus far, can I pick against them? Nope. UConn is simply too good from top-to-bottom, and Miami isn't good enough defensively to end their run.
--Ryan Pohle
