Saturday's two-game slate of epic proportions again gives us the shot at $20,000 over at DraftKings, where a $20 entry gets you a five in 3,529 chance at winning four-figures. The contest pays to a reasonable 20.1 percent of entrants. Too rich for your blood, or prefer single-entry tournaments (like myself), a $5 entry gets you a shot at $250 in first place and pays to 22.7 percent of entrants.
College Basketball DFS: DraftKings Picks & Preview for Saturday, April 4
Two games, four very worthy teams, and seemingly minimal surprises rotationally are in store Saturday. Roll the ball out, and let the best team win. Michigan - Arizona is going to be the obviously stacked game with a 157.5 point total against Illinois - UConn sitting at 139.5, but both games feature narrow spreads and highly efficient offenses.
For better or worse, pricing is very reduced, as we don't have anyone priced at $9,000 or greater. I say for worse because it really does open the slate up for a plethora of different styles of roster builds. For me, personally, I lean one real pay up, as few guys under $5,000 as possible, and as many of the high middle-tier you can squeeze in.
My personal fade list for Saturday include Elliot Cadeau ($7,000) and Andrej Stojakovic ($5,900). The latter doesn't do enough peripherally to have a ceiling, and the former, well, consider me a jaded Tar Heel. Cadeau is playing terrifically, I don't trust him to shoot well in a large stadium, nor do I want to count on him playing smart and under control at this stage for this price. Not rooting against him at all, I just can't personally do it.
College Basketball DFS Top Players
Yaxel Lendeborg, F, Michigan ($8,600)
This certainly isn't reinventing the wheel. But I think we're forced to pay for one of Lendeborg or Tarris Reed ($8,900) and build out from there. I believe the masses will be on Lendeborg, so there can certainly be a competitive advantage in Reed, but this is perceived chalk I'm willing to eat. Cheaper, and a better gamescript, should lead to the safer floor, which we arguably don't care about if Lendeborg is indeed chalk, and he's clearly got the ceiling to match or better Reed, averaging 25.0 points, 8.3 rebounds, 4.3 assists, a steal and block over his last three.
Koa Peat, F, Arizona ($7,200)
After you're top-priced selection, the fun starts. Keaton Wagler ($8,000) will get no hate from me, while Aday Mara ($7,700) brings a huge ceiling and low floor. Beyond that, it's a coin flip betwen Brayden Burries ($7,400) and Peat, both of whom are playing at an elite level. I'm leaning towards Burries being higher rostered, so Peat for me as we build a strong frontcourt and seek guard help in the lower tiers. This matchup is fascinating with both sides having three players at 6-foor-7 or greater. This could blow up in our face if Peat is on Lendeborg defensively as fouls become a scare. But if we can get him matched up with Mara on switches off the dribble, or against Morez Johnson individually, I like Peat's chances for some easy baskets. He's averaging 18.2 points, 6.6 boards and 2.0 assists with a 27.6 percent usage rate in his last five.
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Middle Tier
Jaden Bradley, G, Arizona ($6,300)
This is the second piece of chalk Saturday I believe we should eat. Bradley hasn't topped 27.25 DKP since the Big 12 semi-finals, mostly because he hasn't needed to. He rarely leaves the court, 33.0 minutes in his last six, and the price break is so massive from an $8,800 season-high how do you not just let everyone use him, yourself included, and be different elsewhere. I find Bradley to be savvy enough to get Cadeau in foul trouble shoots 80.8 percent from the foul line if/when he's got the ball late. He's also sitting at 39.4 percent from behind the arch. Paired with a fast, high-scoring game script, and this looks like a ceiling opportunity.
Tomislav Ivisic, F, Illinois ($5,700)
From the Illini mid-tier, I probably prefer Kylan Boswell ($5,400) for the fact he'll play more and have the ball in his hands often. But Ivisic isn't priced too high, and the ninth-highest priced option at a position that seemingly falls off a cliff behind him. Fouls are a major concern if he's slugging it out against Reed on the inside, but that can also lead to plenty of rebounds and blocks. UConn has shown they can spread out bigger teams and force them to play small, but that doesn't negate the Illini having a frontcourt size advantage, nor their third-ranked offensive rebounding percentage. A 3x floor should be present with double-double potential.
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College Basketball DFS Value Plays
Nimari Burnett, G, Michigan ($4,900)
Perhaps this is chalk play No. 3. Burnett averaged 8.4 points and 2.7 rebounds during the year, playing just 19.9 minutes. Over his last five that's risen to 10.0 points and 4.8 rebounds across 24.4 minutes. I'd prefer the price to be a few hundred less, but it should be an easy buy as a secondary piece to the Wolverines attack, and being able to find a steady guard at this price seems to amplify the fact we should target forwards in the above tiers.
Solo Ball, G, Connecticut ($4,100)
We can't look at the box score from these two's late November matchup; they're different teams now and the rotations are vastly different. Heck, Reed played just 15 minutes (four fouls) and freshmen Braylon Mullins and Wagler combined for five points in 24 total minutes. Point made, I hope. But Ball is a wildcard I'm willing to gamble on at this reduced number. In his first 12 games of the season, he had a 26.3 percent usage rate, averaging 15.4 points, 3.5 rebounds, 1.5 assists and 11.8 shot attempts, He then missed a game and returned with a 22.9 percent usage rate, 11.7 points, 3.0 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 10.2 shot attempts. But he's vital to the Huskies' rotation, playing 31 minutes on average last weekend while taking 19 shots. Minutes and volume suggest a 4x floor and you can dream on a ceiling of 6x or greater if he can get something to fall early. Ball won't be a slate breaker, but he can be a game changer for both his team and yours. He had 15 points and five boards against the Illini previously.
If you need an absolute punt play because you want as many aces as possible, Jayden Ross ($3,500) is your man. He managed 7.25 DKP last time out with a zero percent usage rate! He averaging 20.1 minutes over his last 14 and can stumble into at least 2x without scoring.
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