This article is part of our DFS College Basketball series.
Another big slate of games for DraftKings Tuesday, with a $10k top prize in its $18 Fadeaway contest. Let's take a look at today's implied totals before reviewing the recommended plays.
Top Players
Keegan Murray, F, Iowa ($9,800 DK, $8,500 FD)
Keegan Murray is the most expensive player on the board, but don't let that stop you from taking him. Iowa is projected to score the most points on the slate, per both KenPom and the implied totals, so the Hawkeyes are certainly a team to target. Keegan Murray is by far Iowa's most productive player, and he's having such a spectacular season that he's currently ranked fifth in KenPom's "Player of the Year" standings. More importantly, Murray currently has the highest offensive efficiency rating in the country among all players that use at least 28 percent of their team's possessions when on the court. Murray has scored 36-plus fantasy points (DK) in his last five games, including eight of his last ten overall. It's also worth pointing out that Michigan State has been rather careless with the ball on offense, allowing the second-worst steal rate in the Big Ten during conference play. Coincidentally, Iowa's defense is stealing the ball at the second-highest rate in the conference, with Murray second on the team in steals. Murray has a high bar to clear thanks to his salary, but all signs indicate he should once again have another productive day on both sides of the court.
David McCormack, F, Kansas ($7,300 DK, $7,400 FD)
Kansas State's defense has struggled in two key areas against Big 12 opponents, rebounding and interior defense. Since conference season started, the Wildcats have had the second-worst defensive rebounding rate in the conference as well as allowing opponents to make almost 53 percent of two-point attempts, the third-highest percentage allowed in the Big 12. This is great news for David McCormack, as he currently has the highest offensive rebounding rate in the country, in addition to having the sixth-highest offensive efficiency rating among all Big 12 players during conference play. McCormack went through bouts of inactivity earlier in the year, but it appears that's behind him now. He's seemingly returned to form, scoring in double figures in seven of his last nine games. McCormack has recorded a double-double in his last two games, and based on today's matchup, he's got a decent chance at making it three in a row.
Middle Tier
Chase Audige, G/F, Northwestern ($6,600 DK)
Nebraska is easily the worst team in the Big Ten, both offensively and defensively, per KenPom's efficiency ratings, so Northwestern shouldn't have too much trouble in this game. Offensively, Nebraska is allowing steals at the worst rate in the Big Ten since conference season started, which doesn't bode well for the Cornhuskers because Northwestern has the third-highest defensive steal rate in the conference. Chase Audige leads Northwestern in steals, which isn't surprising considering he has the third-highest steal rate in the Big Ten during conference play this season, something he did last season as well. Additionally, Audige is taking 27 percent of his team's possessions when on the court, effectively tied for the highest shot rate on the team, so one can expect him to stay busy on both sides of the court. Audige is coming off a couple of disappointing performances, but he recently put up nearly 30 fantasy points back on Feb. 5 when Northwestern traveled to Nebraska in their first encounter of the season, so I'm expecting Audige to bounce back against a familiar and favorable opponent.
Kevin Obanor, F, Texas Tech ($5,600 DK, $4,100 FD)
Oklahoma has had a rough time defending Big 12 opponents this season, ranking second-worst in the conference in terms of defensive efficiency. Furthermore, Oklahoma is allowing Big 12 opponents to make over 54 percent of two-point attempts, the worst percentage allowed in the conference. As a team, Texas Tech is making over 52 percent of its two-point attempts against conference opponents, the third-highest percentage in the Big 12. Kevin Obanor has done his part in maintaining a high team percentage, as he's made 62 percent of his two-point attempts this season, the highest percentage on the team among players with 100-plus two-point attempts. Obanor has been hit-or-miss recently but playing against a softer opponent will likely lead to a productive day for Obanor. Last week on Feb. 16 against Baylor, Obanor recorded 23 points and 13 rebounds in 29 minutes, demonstrating that he's more than capable of having a big game.
Value Plays
Charles Bediako, F, Alabama ($4,700 DK, $4,600 FD)
Alabama's frontcourt has a massive advantage in this game, just one problem -- the playing time for Alabama's frontcourt is rather unpredictable at times. The important stats to note are that Alabama has superior rebounding rates on both sides of the court in addition to facing a soft interior defense. Since conference season started, Vanderbilt is allowing opponents to make over 53 percent of two-point attempts, the third-highest percentage allowed in the SEC. Alabama, meanwhile, is making almost 54 percent of its two-point attempts against SEC opponents, the second-highest percentage in the conference. Charles Bediako is a significant reason for the high team percentage, as he's making nearly 68 percent of his two-point attempt this season, the 26th highest percentage in the country among all qualified players. Bediako has also put up other impressive numbers, including the second-highest offensive efficiency rating among all SEC players, the second-highest offensive rebounding rate among all SEC players, and the third-highest block rate in the conference.
Mike Nuga, G, UNLV ($3,400 DK)
On paper, Nevada's primary defensive weakness has been on the perimeter, where it's allowing Mountain West opponents to make 37 percent of three-point attempts, the second-highest percentage allowed in the conference. Mike Nuga is one of the best shooters on UNLV, having made 42 percent of his shots from behind the arc during conference season, so he might knock down a few extra shots in this game. Nuga wasn't much of a factor early in conference season, but he's been playing more aggressively lately, scoring 15-plus fantasy points (DK) in five of his last seven games, including two instances of 25-plus fantasy points in that span. Nuga is taking over 20 percent of his team's shots when on the court, the third-highest rate on the team, so we can expect him to take his shots assuming his recent playing time trends continue. All in all, Nuga's salary isn't bad for someone who has a chance at putting up 20-plus fantasy points.
