Conference tournament action tips off in a Big way on Tuesday, as the first round of the Big 12 and Big Ten tournaments commence. That's not all, however, as the WCC championship also gets a moment in the spotlight. Here are my predictions for a trio of games featuring each of these leagues.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Utah 
vs. Cincinnati
Utah is the worst defensive team in the conference, by a mile.
The Utes' defense ranks 213th in adjusted efficiency, which naturally includes the worst mark during the Big 12 conference season. Since league play started, Utah's defense ranks last in efficiency, two-point field goal percentage allowed (57 percent), turnover percentage, and effective field goal percentage. It's also the fifth-worst in defensive rebounding, further underscoring the unit's weakness.
The Bearcats' offense, meanwhile, has caught fire over the past month. Since February 8th, Cincinnati has posted five of its six most efficient offensive performances of the season, including an emphatic 84-68 win at Kansas.
Considering these two facts, I'm inclined to take Cincinnati in this matchup, though I prefer our odds of a high-scoring game for two other key reasons.
First, the Bearcats prefer to push the pace offensively, ranking 102nd in average offensive possession length. Second, while Utah's offense isn't the most dynamic, ranking 92nd in adjusted efficiency, the Utes actually do a good job of scoring from long-range. They made 36 percent of three-pointers this season (87th) and made at least 10 shots from beyond the arc in six games, so they have shown an ability to get hot from the perimeter.
For these reasons, I'm taking the over.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 138.5
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Maryland 
vs. Oregon 
Against Big Ten competition, the Terrapins posted the worst offensive rating in the league. They also finished last in turnovers, non-steal turnovers, and free-throw percentage, and they were among the bottom four teams in two-point, three-point, and effective field goal percentages. Not good, to put it lightly.
It's hard to score points against any team with these kinds of numbers, and Oregon's defense is unlikely to cooperate. The Ducks had a disappointing season, as most college hoops fans know, but they performed well defensively down the stretch. Oregon had six of its seven best defensive performances of the conference season in February (by efficiency), including an 85-71 win over Wisconsin. It's also worth noting that Oregon's defense held Big Ten opponents to under 53 percent on two-point attempts, the fifth-best mark in the league. The Ducks may be weak in other areas, but, led by star center Nate Bittle, defending the paint isn't one of them.
In the other direction, Oregon's offense wasn't great, but that's probably okay in this instance because Maryland's defense is nearly the worst. Since the conference season started, the Terps' defense ranks second-worst in the league in efficiency, turnovers, free-throw attempt rate allowed, two-point, three-point, and effective field goal percentages allowed. Opponents can often decide how they want to score, in other words.
This is welcome news for Oregon, as its offense ranks higher than Maryland's defense in all of the aforementioned categories. While we're at it, I should highlight the fact that the Ducks are great at drawing contact near the rim, posting the sixth-highest free-throw attempt rate during Big Ten play. This trait, combined with the Terps' penchant for fouling, played out exactly as expected when Maryland hosted Oregon in early January. The Ducks took 21 foul shots and made 18-of-31 (.581) shots inside the arc en route to a 64-54 victory. The same game also marked Oregon's second-best defensive performance of the season (by efficiency).
All things considered, I like our chances of seeing history repeat itself on Tuesday. I'm taking the Ducks.
College Basketball Best Bet: Oregon -3.5
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Santa Clara 
vs. Gonzaga 
The Broncos won their 26th game of the season on Monday, matching their most wins in a season since 2013. In looking at their team profile, it's easy to see why. They have the best offensive attack in the WCC.
During the conference season, Santa Clara's offense led the league in efficiency, two-point field goal percentage (59 percent), and effective field goal percentage. The Broncos also made 37 percent of three-pointers and ranked among the top four in the league in turnovers and rebounding percentage, further cementing their well-rounded attack.
In contrast, Gonzaga's offense took a step back compared to what we're accustomed to seeing. The Bulldogs' offense ranks 34th in adjusted efficiency, its worst mark since 2014. This isn't a terrible standing, although two traits are concerning. First, Gonzaga seldom scores from the perimeter. The Bulldogs recorded just 23 percent of their total points from three-pointers, among the 20-lowest teams in D-1. They seldom attempt them, for good reason. They made just 32 percent from beyond the arc during the conference season.
The other concern for Gonzaga is that it doesn't often get to the charity stripe, and when it does, it doesn't convert. The Bulldogs rank 291st in free-throw attempt rate and made just 68 percent of foul shots during league play, the worst mark in the WCC.
Gonzaga won both of the regular-season games against Santa Clara, but it's worth noting that the latter held a lead in the second half in both instances. Given a team with a strong offensive attack, I'm taking the points in this spot.
College Basketball Best Bet: Santa Clara +6.5
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Tuesday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Tuesday:
- Utah vs. Cincinnati - Over 138.5
- Oregon -3.5
- Santa Clara +6.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
