We only have a baker's dozen to work with on Friday's slate, but thankfully, at least a couple of them should provide some thrills. Coming off a 3-0 sweep with yesterday's action, having won 20 of my last 27 picks, I present my selections for Friday's slate.
Top College Basketball Best Bets for Today
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Princeton 
at Brown 
At first glance, Brown's defense seems substantially better than Princeton's offense, but a closer look reveals a different story, including a massive Princeton advantage in one key area.
Since the conference season began, both Princeton's offense and Brown's defense rank fourth in the league in efficiency, making this a somewhat even matchup. Still, two items stand out.
First, the Tigers' offense leads the Ivy League in turnover percentage, an important trait because Brown relies on turnovers for stops (second in the league). It doesn't affect opposing shots quite as well, ranking sixth in effective field goal percentage allowed.
The second, and perhaps more critical, note is that the Tigers are among the best in the Ivy League at getting to the charity stripe, ranking second in free-throw attempt rate while making 81 percent of their foul shots during the conference season. In contrast, the Bears' defense ranks last in the league in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
This played out exactly as we might expect when these two teams first clashed back in January, with the Tigers making 22-of-22 free throw attempts en route to a 63-53 victory.
The Bears usually need their defense to play well to win, as they've had severe offensive issues throughout the season. Their offense ranks among the bottom 40 teams in adjusted efficiency, effective field goal percentage, and free-throw attempt rate. Against Ivy League opponents, the Bears have made under 27 percent of three-point attempts, unsurprisingly the worst mark in the conference.
All things considered, I gotta take the Tigers in this one.
College Basketball Best Bet: Princeton +1.5
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Indiana 
at Purdue 
It's hard to fade Purdue's elite offense, but, then again, it's also hard to trust its defense in this matchup.
The Boilermakers are decent defensively, but they're weaker in the paint, allowing Big Ten opponents to make 55 percent of their two-point attempts, which ranks 12th in the league. At the same time, the Hoosiers are among the best at scoring in the paint, making 60 percent of shots inside the arc, the 11th-best mark, and perhaps more impressively, they maintained this mark against league competition, also making 60 percent against conference foes, the second-highest mark in the Big Ten. This mismatch between Indiana's offense and Purdue's defense played out exactly as we might expect when these teams first collided back in late January, when Indiana made 11-of-17 two-point attempts (65 percent) against Purdue in a 72-67 point victory.
Purdue reached its lowest point total of the conference season in the first round against Indiana, so it's hard to imagine the Hoosiers replicating that defensive feat, especially given the rematch will be at Mackey Arena.
Purdue's offense ranks second nationally in adjusted efficiency and sports top-40 rankings in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and rebounding. They're making 57 percent from inside the arc and 38 percent beyond it, giving them few, if any, offensive weaknesses.
Indiana's defense, meanwhile, has played at a respectable level but is nonetheless below average compared to the rest of the conference. Against league opponents, the Hoosiers' defense ranks 11th or worse in the Big Ten in efficiency, turnovers, rebounding, and free-throw attempt rate allowed.
I'm inclined to believe Purdue gets its revenge on Friday, although, given a large spread to deal with, I'm more confident in seeing a higher point total. Indiana hoists three-point attempts as frequently as any team in the country, eighth-most to be exact, so it wouldn't be surprising if they made a late push to sneak back in the game or extend it in the closing minutes.
College Basketball Best Bet: Over 148.5
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Siena 
at Merrimack
Merrimack has the distinction of being arguably the worst rebounding team in the nation. The Warriors rank dead last among all D-1 teams in defensive rebounding percentage and 344th in offensive rebounding. Their other defensive concern is their penchant for fouling, ranking 270th in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Both of these weaknesses play directly into Siena's hands, which ranks 130th in offensive rebounding percentage and has made 75 percent of its foul shots (99th).
Aside from these two strengths, Siena has played well offensively, boasting the highest adjusted efficiency rating among all MAAC teams, including a league-best rating during the conference season. Additionally, Siena's offense also leads the league in effective field goal percentage, turnovers, and two-point field goal percentage (56 percent).
Merrimack will likely need its defense near top form because its offense isn't nearly as sharp. The Warriors' offense ranks 222nd in offensive efficiency and 263rd in effective field goal percentage, making it unreliable at scoring. One concern for them in this matchup is that they score an unusually high amount of points from the charity stripe, with foul shots accounting for almost 24 percent of their total points, the 30th-highest mark. The concern in this case is that Siena seldom sends opponents to the foul line, ranking 33rd in free-throw attempt rate allowed.
Overall, considering this match is close on paper with Siena having a couple of advantages, I gotta take the points in this spot. My money's on the Saints.
College Basketball Best Bet: Siena +3.5
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Friday College Basketball Best Bets:
Here's a recap of my best college basketball bets for Friday:
- Princeton +1.5
- Indiana at Purdue - Over 148.5
- Siena +3.5
For up-to-date information on the latest college basketball betting odds and props from multiple sources, check out the college basketball odds page on RotoWire.
