The NBA playoffs have begun, starting a two-month path toward one team lifting the Larry O'Brien Championship Trophy.
So we turned to AI to simulate the NBA postseason 100 times, producing odds for each of the 16 playoff teams. These won't necessarily correlate with odds at top sports betting sites. But these NBA championship AI projections provide some insight into which teams might be most likely to win the NBA Finals and which teams advance most often to each stage in the playoffs.
How We Arrived At These Projections
The interactive NBA championship AI projections graphic above is based on a 100-run simulation of the 2026 bracket. Each simulation runs a complete best-of-7 series for every round using per-game win probabilities derived from three inputs:
- 1. Seed differential: Higher seeds start with a baseline advantage based on historical playoff data.
- 2. Game 1 result: First-round probabilities are adjusted to reflect actual outcomes (e.g., the Magic's Game 1 upset win over the Pistons reduced Detroit's series win probability).
- 3. Team strength ratings (scale 1–100): These are derived from 2025–26 regular-season performance, roster quality and playoff track record. We used this metric to calculate win probabilities for all rounds beyond the first. Win probability formula for rounds 2–4: P(A wins game) = Strength(A) / (Strength(A) + Strength(B))
Each series was simulated game-by-game until one team reached four wins. Results were aggregated across all 100 runs to produce advancement percentages at each round. Data is as of April 20, 2026.
First Round NBA Playoff Odds for Higher Seeds and Upset Chances
Our projections are designed to be a different way to look at NBA betting possibilities. It should come as no surprise that, in our computer modeling, the higher seed wins every first-round series. Seven of the eight higher seeds won Game 1 over the weekend (more on the exception later).
The Oklahoma City Thunder, the defending champions who had the best regular-season record at 64-18, opened their best-of-seven Western Conference playoff series on Sunday with a 119-84 victory over the visiting Phoenix Suns. That 35-point win was the most lopsided result of the eight Game 1 clashes.
The lone outlier over the weekend was the Orlando Magic. The No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference upset the top-seeded Detroit Pistons, 112-101, on Sunday. For more on that angle, see our story Magical Opener: Can Orlando Repeat Game 1 Upset Over Pistons?
NBA Playoffs Game 2 Odds
How realistic is it that all the favorites will win their first-round NBA playoff series?
Over the past five seasons, nine lower-seeded teams have won their first-round playoff series, including four in 2023. That's an average of nearly two instances per season. And the only time since 2021 that all eight higher-seeded teams advanced to the second round was in 2022.
So, do our simulations project too much chalk? Or is the gap between the best teams and the ones in the middle of the pack that much greater in 2026?
The Game 2 odds at BetMGM Sportsbook, as of the afternoon on April 20, suggest the latter. The eight higher seeds are favored by an average of 8.9 points a game. The only lower seed favored in Game 2 is the Houston Rockets, who are giving 4.5 points to the Los Angeles Lakers even though L.A. won Game 1, 107-98. No surprise, the largest spread on the board is between the Thunder and the Suns, where OKC is laying 17.5 points for Game 2.
NBA Finals Odds and Title Projection Outlook
Oklahoma City is the lone team projected to advance out of the first round 100% of the time after 100 simulations. The Thunder were so impressive in the regular season and in Game 1 that bet365 Sportsbook considers the team even money to win the NBA title. The operator has posted a prop on who will win the title, with the Thunder at -110 odds and the field (all other teams combined) also at -110.
Our computer-driven model isn't quite that confident, but OKC is still the most frequent champion, taking the title 20 times. However, the title race is much closer in our projections than sportsbook apps operators would suggest with their NBA futures odds.
The East team projected to win the NBA championship most often isn't the top-seeded Pistons, but rather the No. 2 seed Boston Celtics, at16%. The Lakers, Nuggets and Knicks all captured the crown more than 10% of the time.
Boston is a near certainty to oust the rival Philadelphia 76ers in the first round, according to the calculations, with Philly winning the series just once in 100 tries.
The Celtics are the East champions most frequently (28%) but there is an interesting twist. The projections have the top No. 1 seeds meeting in the NBA Finals as the most frequent season-ending matchup, happening 12 times.
Check out our NBA odds and betting lines at RotoWire.com throughout the postseason to see the latest line movements and to compare operators at a glance.
