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Best NBA Bets Today
Spurs to win, +130 @ DraftKings
It all comes down to this game Saturday at Paycom Center. The Thunder will aim to return to the NBA Finals after winning the 2024-25 title, while the Spurs aim to pull off the upset in their return to the postseason for the first time in the current decade. The Thunder are the odds-on favorites on the moneyline, ranging from -145 to -162, and have the home-court advantage, but the Spurs have proven they can compete on the road. They stole Game 1 of the series and are carrying the momentum after delivering a dominant performance in Game 6, where they suffocated Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (15 points on 6-18 FG). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams (hamstring) and Ajay Mitchell (calf), so they'll be decimated in terms of depth and without two of their best secondary scorers. The Spurs will be at full strength, so an upset win on the road might be a real possibility.
Under 212.5 points, -110 @ Ceasars
Game 6 of the series looked poised to hit the over until the Thunder hit a wall offensively in the second half, but the game still ended with 209 total points. Defense was far more intense in that game, as it was a potential series-decider, and it's safe to expect that trend won't change in Game 7 with the stakes being so high. Even though four of the six games in the series have hit the over, don't be surprised if the under hits once again. The under has happened in two of the Spurs' three wins, and it would've been the case in Game 1 (another Spurs victory) had the game not gone to extra time. With increased defensive intensity from both teams, look for this game to be a low-scoring affair.
De'Aaron Fox over 13.5 points, -120 @ FanDuel
Fox didn't have a good performance in Games 5 and 6, combining for 14 points while shooting 5-for-24 from the floor. However, he scored 15 and 12 points in Games 3 and 4. Even though Victor Wembanyama is going to lead the Spurs offensively, San Antonio also needs Fox at his best if they want to have a chance of winning Game 7. The veteran floor general has been bothered by an ankle injury in the series, but his experience will be key in this game. Expect him to be heavily involved as an offensive weapon in the backcourt. Fox is averaging 16.5 points, 4.3 rebounds and 6.0 assists per game in the playoffs.
Jaylin Williams over 1.5 three-pointers, +135 @ BetMGM
The Thunder will need their role players to step up in the absence of Williams and Mitchell. The Spurs seem to have found a way to limit the impact of Jared McCain in the backcourt, so Jaylin Williams is another role player who can find a way to make an impact with his three-point shooting. He went 0-for-4 from three-point range but is still shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc on 4.2 attempts per game in the series, so the volume is clearly there. With Mitchell and Williams out, Caruso and McCain commanding extra attention from the defense, and Williams seeing 18.0 minutes per game in the Western Conference Finals while providing solid minutes to rest both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein, look for Williams to emerge as a dangerous threat from long distance.
