Top MLB Betting Picks for July 1: MLB Same-Game Parlays and Props
- 2026 Regular-Season Betting Record: 6-6-1 (-2.79 units)
- 2026 Regular-Season Player Props Betting Record: 6-7 (-1.84 units)
After racking up 24 runs over the first two installments of a four-game Coors Field set, the Marlins look to continue bashing in Wednesday night's battle of the 1993 expansion franchises. The starting pitching matchup heavily favors the visitors, a fact that helps inform our thinking from a betting perspective.
With the stage set, let's examine a same-game parlay and a player prop for tonight's game:
Cash in on the best sportsbook promos available at the best MLB betting sites this baseball season. The BetMGM bonus code gets new players one of the best welcome bonuses in the industry.
Best MLB Bets Today
MLB Picks for Marlins at Rockies
- SGP: Marlins -0.5 and Over 3 runs - F5 (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Javier Sanoja 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+125 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Hunter Goodman 2+ Total Bases (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
Miami Marlins at Colorado Rockies Best Bets
After outscoring Colorado by a 24-10 margin over the first two games of the series, the Marlins trot out ace Max Meyer for Wednesday's contest. A first-round pick in the 2020 First-Year Player Draft, Meyer has fully blossomed over the first half of this season, going into tonight's clash with a 9-0 record, 2.60 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 9.9 K/9 and 0.7 HR/9 across 17 starts.
What's more, Meyer's numbers hold up extremely well when split out to his road starts, as he holds a 4-0 record, 3.11 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 0.8 HR/9 and even more impressive 10.1 K/9 in that scenario. A look at his Statcast numbers backs up the legitimacy of his surface metrics, as Meyer has a .221 xBA, .298 xwOBA and 3.64 xERA while allowing a career-low 8.0 percent barrel rate.
Given he'd pitched to a 5.29 ERA and 1.43 WHIP over his first three big-league seasons, it's not entirely surprising to find some Colorado hitters have had past success against Meyer. The most prominent in today's likely starting lineup is slugger Hunter Goodman, who already has a whopping 26 homers after hitting 31 all of last season and has tagged Meyer for a .667 average with a pair of round-trippers in six career encounters.
Ironically, Goodman has been at his best outside of Coors. But he's still naturally a dangerous presence that can help Colorado contribute to the game's run total even when Meyer is still in the game. Given Goodman's prodigious power, his history against Meyer and the fact 12 of his 20 hits at home against righties this season have gone for extra bases, I'm in the camp of a 2+ total bases prop for him Wednesday.
On the other side, veteran southpaw Kyle Freeland is slogging through yet another very difficult season. Freeland walks into Wednesday's matchup against a group of hitters that have given him plenty of past trouble sporting a 1-7 record, 7.50 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 2.0 HR/9 across 14 starts. Freeland's actually had more trouble outside his hitter-friendly home park, but his home splits include a 6.75 ERA, 1.61 WHIP and 1.7 HR/9 over 37.1 innings.
As his metrics indicate, hitters are seeing the ball extremely well and squaring up plenty against Freeland. He's yielding a career-worst 11.2 percent barrel rate and also sports a .299 xBA, .507 xSLG and .368 xwOBA. Righty bats have particularly bedeviled him at home, where he's conceded a .320 average, .427 wOBA, 1.74 WHIP and 2.2 HR/9 to them across a sample of 136 hitters.
Current Marlins bats own a collective .400 average and .954 OPS against Freeland across 42 career plate appearances, a sample that includes five extra-base hits and nine RBI. As if that wasn't worrisome enough, Miami also posted a .342 wOBA, .796 OPS and .242 ISO against left-handed pitching on the road during the month of June (138 plate appearances).
Miami's Javier Sanoja, who owns a career-low 10.2 percent strikeout rate and is hitting a blistering .550 with four extra-base hits, seven RBI and five runs over the last six games, is also 4-for-7 with a double and two RBI against Freeland in his career. While almost all his success against lefties this season has come at home, Sanoja's reliable bat, the Marlins' projected run total of 6.2 runs and his recent body of work all put me on his 3+ hits + runs + RBI prop.
Additionally, given the metrics cited for both pitchers, a bet on the Marlins being ahead by at least one run and over 3 total runs being scored in the first five innings is in play as our same-game parlay.
Check out Caesars Sportsbook this MLB season and use the Caesars Sportsbook promo code for one of the top MLB betting promos.
Check out Fanatics Sportsbook to bet on MLB odds and use the Fanatics Sportsbook promo for a great welcome offer.
Check out on one of the top sports betting apps when you sign up with the bet365 bonus code for your baseball betting.
MLB Picks Recap
- SGP: Marlins -0.5 and Over 3 runs - F5 (+115 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Javier Sanoja 3+ Hits + Runs + RBI (+125 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
- Hunter Goodman 2+ Total Bases (-105 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 Unit
