Updated Top 400 MLB Prospect Rankings Mailbag

In case you missed it, the Top 400 Prospect Rankings, Team Top 20s, ETAs, and Fantasy Baseball Dynasty Rankings have all been fully updated within the last week. Here's the corresponding mailbag podcast and the written version of the mailbag.

Before I get to the mailbag, as usual, here are the tiers on the updated top 400 prospect rankings:

Here are the tiers:

1 - Konnor Griffin

2-3 - Kevin McGonigle - Leo De Vries

4 - Jesus Made

5-8 Samuel Basallo - Sal Stewart

9-24 Sebastian Walcott - Max Clark

25-40 Caleb Bonemer - Travis Bazzana

41-62 Elmer Rodriguez - Andrew Fischer

63-117 Luis De Leon - Travis Sykora

118-161 Xavier Isaac - Rhett Lowder

162-204 Nathan Church - Jose Corniell

205-285 Tommy Troy - Gabriel Gonzalez

286-400 Ricky Tiedemann - Tyler Black

E77: Looking to make a pre-draft trade in my keeper league and have very similar trades in the pipeline for JJ Wetherholt (STL) and Kevin McGonigle (DET). McGonigle has been ranked ahead of JJ for months, of course, but how much better is he truly? I'm a rebuilding team that expects to be competitive next year. (The JJ trade comes with a better draft pick.) Seems like the McGonigle/Wetherholt difference is mainly in power (advantage McGonigle), though I wonder if Wetherholt will have the higher floor in 2027/2028. Is there anything I'm missing?

Actually, I think the difference is the hit tool, not the raw power. Wetherholt's hit tool is plus to double-plus and McGonigle's is borderline 80-grade. Peak Wetherholt might be a .280 hitter and peak McGonigle might be a .300 hitter, and with that extra grade of hit tool could come ~5 more homers, more runs and more RBI. Wetherholt has never done anything in pro ball that was surprising or double-take worthy. He was a really good draft prospect and he's been exactly as advertised while moving through the system at a normal pace for a player with his pedigree. Meanwhile, McGonigle, who is two years younger than Wetherholt, has routinely walked more than he's struck out while being young for the level. It's a great prospect (McGonigle) vs. a really, really good prospect (Wetherholt).

Josiah Tindor: Where would UCLA shortstop and likely 1-1 pick this year, Roch Cholowsky, fit in this list if eligible?

I think we can often get too caught up looking ahead, and I think the top of the current prospect rankings is strong enough that I'd have Cholowsky in the 9-10 area with Sebastian Walcott (TEX) and Aidan Miller (PHI). That's incredibly high praise by my standards -- I rarely put FYPD players in the top 10, let alone the top 20. As high as Cholowsky's floor is, the solid exit velocities and lack of speed don't point to a future first-round pick in fantasy.

PaulMax: Could you do a compare/contrast between Samuel Basallo (BAL) and Rainiel Rodriguez (STL)? I'm wondering who has better floor/ceiling and who is more likely to keep catcher eligibility long term.

I think Basallo is more likely to stick at catcher just because he's in the big leagues already and still plays catcher, and Rodriguez could potentially move off the position before he reaches the majors. However, I think it will play out similarly to Basallo, where Rodriguez is a catcher and designated hitter for his first couple years with the Cardinals and TBD after that. Both guys should hit enough to be everyday DH/1B if the catching doesn't work out.

I also think Basallo has the higher floor and ceiling, just because we've seen him dominate at Double-A and Triple-A already. They're both elite catching prospects for fantasy, as these two and Adley Rutschman are the only catchers I've ever ranked top 15 on the top 400, if memory serves. 

Bruce Jacobson: Joshua Baez (STL) at No. 11 overall seems super bold, especially over Walker Jenkins (MIN) and Max Clark (DET). Do you expect him up by May?

I had Baez ahead of Jenkins and Clark on the Jan. 15 update too. I think he's got a higher fantasy ceiling and a quicker ETA than both Jenkins and Clark, so that was my reasoning, especially on this last update after Jenkins had another soft tissue injury this spring (a hamstring injury limited him to 82 games in 2024 as well). Baez has more raw power than Jenkins and certainly more than Clark. He also likes to run as much, if not more than Jenkins and Clark. If you're a Jenkins/Clark holder and you don't want to trade them for Baez, I'd understand that because of their pedigree and the high pick you used on them, but I'd take Baez over Jenkins/Clark in a startup without thinking twice. I believe that position players can be injury prone too, just like pitchers, which is why I'm a little lower on Jenkins and Chase DeLauter (CLE), among others, than consensus. If you don't care at all about Jenkins' injury history, then preferring him to Baez is valid. To each their own on that front.

As to when Baez will be up, it might not be until the first or second week of June after the Super Two cutoff, and if the Cardinals want to be incredibly stingy, it might not be until late-August. He's ranked ahead more because of his talent than his ETA, but I do think Baez is the most likely of the three to be up in May.

Bo Knows: How would you rank Chase DeLauter (CLE), Carson Benge (NYM) and Joshua Baez (STL) for 2026 in an OBP league?

Benge, DeLauter, Baez just for 2026 in OBP. As I said above, it's not clear when Baez will be up and we know the other two are Opening Day regulars. I know DeLauter's value is peaking again, but I'm shorting him due to significant durability concerns. Even so, he'll be playing and productive until he gets hurt. Benge is the best of both worlds, lacking any clear shortcomings and having a spot in the Opening Day lineup.

CruJones: Loving the Ralphy Velazquez (CLE) bump...

This isn't a question, but I did want to mention Velazquez in this article. He's such a talented hitter and doesn't get nearly enough love. Not only does he consistently make very hard contact, but he's the rare lefty-hitting prospect who might not get platooned at all initially in the majors. I also think there's a scenario where he gets the call from Triple-A this summer and it's a massive FAAB event.

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Travis Pastore: Looking for this year's Nolan McLean, are there certain skills or stats you look out for when trying to find a pitcher who can make a big jump up the rankings?

• A full pitch mix, including a weapon for righties and lefties
• At least a mid-90s fastball
• Generates weak contact at a strong clip
• Ideally a K-BB% north of 20%
• An ability to handle a starter's workload

My pick is his teammate Jack Wenninger (NYM), who gets an A+ in the full pitch mix, fastball and starter's workload components, he had an 18.9 K-BB% at Double-A, but he's been trending even higher in that department. McLean had a 46.9 GB% at Double-A in 2024 and Wenninger had a 46.5 GB% at Double-A last year. Both guys had a pitch mix that suggested more upside in that department, and I'm expecting Wenninger to jump into the 50s with his groundball rate this year like McLean did in 2025.

Gabriel: Does Mike Sirota (LAD) project as a true CF? Does this give him a clearer path to the bigs before Josue De Paula (LAD), Zyhir Hope (LAD) and Eduardo Quintero (LAD)? 

Sirota and Quintero are the true center fielders. Hope is a corner outfielder while De Paula might end up as Freddie Freeman's replacement at first base. I think Sirota's defense and handedness will lead to him playing more than the lefty-hitting Hope, and I think Sirota's just a more dynamic athlete. All these guys steal bases, but Sirota is a better runner than Hope or De Paula and Sirota's bat speed is among the best in the minors.

Paul: Who is your favorite and why out of the young shortstops who are all close in ranking Dax Kilby (NYY), Eli Willits (WAS), JoJo Parker (TOR), Luis Hernandez (SF) and Josuar Gonzalez (SF) and who is projected to move off shortstop long term?

The one who almost certainly won't stick at shortstop is Parker, who, like org. mate Juan Sanchez (TOR), profiles best at third base. Kilby may move to second base or center field down the road due to a subpar arm, but he's not a lock to move off shortstop. Willits and Gonzalez are no-doubt shortstops and Hernandez has a decent shot to stick there too.

The sticking at shortstop part didn't affect where I ranked any of these five, as I think second base and third base are just as valuable in fantasy. Kilby is my favorite because he flashed superstar upside last year at Single-A. He's a big, athletic mover with long strides and excellent exit velocities for a teenager. 

Nevsim: Ranked in the 50s as a teen after only playing in the DSL is big, but what is the difference between Josuar Gonzalez (SF) compared to when Jesus Made (MIL) got into the top-20 after his successful DSL showing? (Similarities/differences in the profile)

There are probably more differences than similarities with Gonzalez and Made. Even just biographically, Gonzalez was the headliner of his signing class while Made received a six-figure bonus and was widely available in dynasty leagues heading into his pro debut. Gonzalez's speed/athleticism is his carrying tool, while Made's bat is his carrying tool. Made is a good athlete for a future No. 3 or No. 4 hitting third baseman, which he projects to be in a couple years. I'd expect Made to be a 30-35 homer, 20-steal guy, while Gonzalez could be a 40-steal guy who hits 20 homers.

Robert Eastin: Love the double up arrows on A.J. Ewing (NYM). Was it his spring performance or just digging more into the data that made you bump him up?

A combination. Even just comparing Ewing to No. 1 overall pick Eli Willits. If all goes according to plan with Willits, he'll essentially be Ewing at shortstop. I'm also a bit more bullish than I was on the last update about Ewing getting to at least 10-15 homer power to go with his excellent hit tool and speed.

KenBalderston: Loving the Henry Bolte (ATH) love! How much leash do you expect he has in your rankings here? As an example, if he put up another 30% strikeout rate in his second run at AAA, do you expect he'd fall as fast as he's risen in this update?

JohnnyHaveADay: Can Henry Bolte (ATH) continue his .400 BABIP and 60% contact into MLB? What makes you so optimistic? Who would you prefer in dynasty 5x5, Bolte or his teammate Denzel Clarke?

Bolte has a low floor in the batting average department, and he's got multiple issues -- he needs to make more contact and he needs to elevate the ball more than he did last year. However, he also has superstar-caliber power/speed tools and he'll be 22 for most of the year at AAA. His 110 mph 90th percentile exit velocity this spring was elite, as is his bat speed and athleticism. I am expecting him to strike out around 30 percent of the time initially this year at AAA while still being very productive, and then I'd be expecting the K rate to dip into the 26-28 percent range after a month or two. If he's back up at 32 percent and doesn't make any improvements, he'll drop back to the 100-125 range. Obviously he's not going to run a BABIP around .400 in the big leagues, but his high minor-league BABIP tells us how hard he hits the ball and how fast he is. I prefer him to Clarke in dynasty since they have the same weaknesses and Bolte is over three years younger.

Beerbot: Josue Briceno (DET) PLUMMETING...due to injury mostly?

Honestly, going from 39 to 69 is not much of a drop. There are so many talented, exciting prospects in the top 100, and Briceno is still a guy who should be universally rostered. He's just not going to debut this year after the injury.

Fred: Would you pick up Didier Fuentes (ATL) to replace Roki Sasaki for Fuentes' value this year?

If it's a league where Fuentes is still out on waivers, even after his great spring, I'd probably hold Sasaki and just see how he looks in his first couple starts (I would NOT start him in my fantasy lineup). If Sasaki can't throw strikes in his first couple starts, I'd move on from him and Fuentes might be an option at that point. I definitely believe in Fuentes more, but Sasaki clearly has a better fantasy role to start the year.

Gabriel: Carlos Lagrange (NYY) looks filthy, health permitting do you think he remains a starter long term? Or is he more of a Mason Miller Jr.? 

I think anyone with Lagrange on their fantasy roster and the Yankees would be lucky if Lagrange were a Mason Miller clone. He's someone I tried to get out in front of this time last year after the Yankees surprisingly assigned him to High-A after he had an 18.8 BB% at Single-A in 2024. The walks were a big problem again at Double-A (14.9 BB%), and he cut his walk rate this spring, but that was a small enough sample that it might not mean anything. The guy I keep comparing him to in my head is Jacob Misiorowksi, as Misiorowski was ranked in a similar range and had similar flaws entering last season before finally making the necessary improvements with his command/control. That's a best-case scenario, and I think Lagrange ending up a closer is still more likely, but he's got multiple paths to providing fantasy value long term.

Qucan: Do you foresee Sam Antonacci (CHW) growing into more power? He feels underrated...

Yes, hence the big jump up my rankings. He hit for a bit of power in the Arizona Fall League too, and I have liked him a lot for a while, I just was hesitant to assume he'd break through with the White Sox already having Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth, Miguel Vargas and soon Roch Cholowsky. However, after watching Antonacci this spring and hearing the White Sox coaching staff talk about him, I think he's going to break through at some position this summer. He reminds me a bit of Luke Keaschall for fantasy, and he has legit bat speed, so I'm envisioning 10-20 homers with 25-plus steals at peak.

Alaska Authority: Bo Davidson (SF) got a double down arrow, say it ain't so!

Like with Briceno, Davidson fell, but not in a meaningful way. He's in the same tier he was in on the last update, I just moved some guys ahead of him after he had a quiet spring. 

Greg T: Just picked up Juan Valera (BOS) after seeing that huge jump. What led to such a big jump for him?

Zak Gonzalez: Quite the bumps for Juan Valera (BOS) and Jefferson Rojas (CHC). What was your process behind those two?

Juan Valera was arguably the talk of Red Sox camp -- Justin Gonzales (BOS) has a case too -- as he missed time with elbow soreness last year but showed up sitting 98-100 with his fastball and touching 101. It's not just about the velocity with Valera though, he gets whiffs with his slider and changeup and has much better command than the typical 19-year-old fireballer.

Rojas has admittedly been a tough prospect for me to pin down -- kind of like George Lombard (NYY), who I already regret pushing into the top 40. Rojas has been pushed really aggressively by the Cubs and the results haven't always been there as a result, but he is a good shortstop with a good hit tool, which is a great place to start. If the hit tool is above-average to plus, which it might be, then he'll probably access 15-plus homer power and steal 15-plus bases. He looked really good this spring and I think I lowered him too much after his struggles last year at Double-A.

Luke Anderson: Can you dive into John Gil (ATL) a bit? It seemed like he had a very solid spring but he didn't move much in the new update.

Well, he put on a show shortly after I released the rankings. I think I've been higher on Gil than anyone since his strong finish last year, but I could be mistaken. Anyway, yes, he's great. He has added muscle and is still fast and should provide value with his glove. I probably would have ranked him in the 130 range if I'd waited to see him in the Spring Breakout. 

Scott: In James We Trust but you're gonna have to sell me on 25-year-old middle reliever Trevor McDonald (SF) with the double up-arrows. The projections are pretty meh. What kind of role are you seeing for him?

I will try to sell you on McDonald being a top 200 prospect for dynasty leagues. First, he was excellent in the majors in 15 innings last year (20 K-BB%, 53.5 GB%) -- not as a middle reliever but as a starter -- and had a great spring (24 K-BB%, 75 GB%), even though he gave up some runs in his last couple outings. His fastball velocity is up (touched 97.2 mph) after he spent the offseason working on his body and diet. The one thing he doesn't have is a strong pitch to neutralize lefties, but I think he's next in line when the Giants need a starter, ahead of Carson Whisenhunt and Blade Tidwell. You can definitely bypass adding him if you're not into rostering prospects in their mid-20s, but I've got a few shares.

Josh'n: Who's your favorite prospect outside the top 200 to eventually make the top 50 and top 100 by midseason?

Andrew Mason: Any buzz behind the scenes on Breyson Guedez (ATH)? Good numbers in the DSL last year and a moonshot in the Spring Breakout...

Guedez is my answer to Josh'n's question. He's been generating a lot of buzz, which is why I added him to the rankings on this update. He generated even more buzz after the update went live, and if you want to spec on him in leagues where only 200 prospects are rostered, I think that's justifiable. Hitting a ball 110 mph and 450 feet in a game is a rarity for any 18-year-old hitter, and I'd expect him to be higher on the next update, especially if he gets assigned to Single-A and skips the complex league.

Woosyourdaddy: could you elaborate on the big drop for Jonny Farmelo (SEA) all the way outside of the top 200. Lots of missed time with various injuries since he was drafted, but he was originally viewed as a 70-grade speed guy with power potential . What has caused you to get off that bandwagon?

I haven't been on the Farmelo bandwagon for a while, if there even is still a Farmelo bandwagon. He's missed so much time with injuries that it's negatively affected his hit tool. If he were to be healthy all season, I'm sure he'd climb back into the top 150, but I think he'd strike out enough that he wouldn't crack the top 100, but it's possible he could stay healthy and improve at the plate. There's just a lot that needs to go right for him. He turns 22 in September and has played 29 games at High-A.

John: Some up movement for Devin Fitz-Gerald (WAS), not exact but a possible lesser Kevin McGonigle (DET) candidate?

I've seen this comp out there and I think it's a reach, but maybe a much lesser version of McGonigle who barely runs and is a 55-60-grade hitter instead of a 70-80-grade hitter.

Drew B.: Seeing some big spring buzz on Jose Fernandez (ARI). Did he get any consideration for the list?

He was one of my last cuts! He was a below league average hitter as a 21-year-old at Double-A last year, so he would have made the list based solely on his loud spring. If you want to value him in that 200-400 range, that's perfectly fine.

CHALUPAAAA: Kristian Campbell (BOS) is available in my minor league draft. Where would he rank in this list?

In the 90s after Arjun Nimmala (TOR) and Ethan Frey (HOU).

SoxSocks: Thoughts on Christian Scott (NYM) for 2026 and beyond?

I love him. He's one of my most-rostered pitchers in Draft Champions (draft and hold leagues) this year. Scott reminds me a lot of Shane Bieber when he first came up.