Oak's Corner: It's a FAAB Bonanza!

The Week That Was

I have played fantasy baseball for a lot of years and have been playing in the NFBC Main Event for 13 years now and I can say without a doubt this upcoming week of free agent bidding is going to be the wildest since I have been playing. Many times in May and June, we have an intriguing callup from the minors, and there have been some weeks we even have two or maybe three. Of course, sometimes those are names like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is owned in every league or players who've been stashed in a decent percentage of leagues. This week sticks out because we now have seven (!!) callups who are going to garner a ton of bidding interest and gets bids in every league, but also, they are players who are almost universally available in leagues with only Keston Hiura more than 20 percent owned in the NFBC 15-team format.

Usually, when there is one hyped guy coming up, everyone in every league is focused on that guy, everyone bids on him and the price goes up as people realize the level of popularity. This week will be unique in that with so many players that will get heavy bidding, we don't really know which of the prospects fantasy owners will prefer. Plus, people will go big on a couple of guys and smaller on others, to make sure they don't end up with multiple guys at big prices and leave themselves with no FAAB budget the rest of the way. Further, it's early enough in the season where I know there are a few teams that have spent a lot of their money, but most teams still have a good chunk of FAAB ready to blow.

It's a fascinating, fun and challenging week of FAAB where we need to first break down the guys available to see if we are interested, how much we are interested an then decide on bid prices based overall talent, positional and statistical needs of our teams and maybe most importantly, what we think their role is right now and how long their rope is. It will be interesting to see if the big FAAB money spent on Nate Lowe and Carter Kieboom (who both got sent back to the minors) will make people gun-shy at all about adding prospects, but I am guessing it won't. Without further ado, let's jump into the names and hopefully help you decide how much you want to bid on these guys and in what order you rank them. More than anything, have fun this weekend with your bids, these are really fun young players that are being added to the game and I am really looking forward to watching them develop.

FAAB Feelings

Austin Riley. Riley pretty much rammed down the door in the last three weeks in the minors, smoking an insane 13 homers in his last 19 Triple-A Games. Riley flashed significant power in the minors in 2018, hitting 19 homers in only 108 games across multiple levels and grades out very well in the power department in scouting reports. Riley's biggest issue in 75 Triple-A games in 2018 was his 29.3 percent strikeout rate, but he has managed to improve it immensely this year with a 19.1 percent strikeout rate in 27 games at Triple-A.

Riley carries the most power upside among the callups this week, but he also probably has the least clear path to sustained opportunity. Normally a third baseman, he had recently started to get work in the outfield, and an injury to Ender Inciarte sped up Riley's timetable. With Josh Donaldson at third base, it would take an injury (I know, I know, very possible) for him to play third base long-term, but his most likely path is a hot couple of weeks, and the Braves make Inciarte and his .218 batting average a fourth outfielder. Ronald Acuna (obviously) and Nick Markakis are pretty locked into playing time at the moment, so Inciarte as a fourth outfielder and Acuna to center field would be the path if Riley shows he can handle playing defense in the outfield.

Of course, Riley homered in his first game with the Braves and then got three more hits Thursday night just to further ramp up the excitement. Of everyone called up this week, I think Riley is the toughest one on whom to figure out a bid price because he has legit power upside but probably has the least visible path to staying up in the majors and playing every day. If you need pop and a third baseman, Riley has big upside and he will be popular, but just bid knowing it will likely take Riley producing right away and forcing the Braves hand to keep him up and playing every day.

Oscar Mercado. With their paucity of outfield options, the Indians called up Mercado to seemingly play every day in the outfield, and of course he's sitting already on Thursday, his second day in the majors. Mercado is very interesting in fantasy leagues because of the stolen base upside he brings to the table. The 24-year-old was originally drafted by the Cardinals in 2013 and has stolen at least 30 bases in every season since 2015, including 37 last year in only 132 Triple-A games. Mercado will likely not provide a lot of pop, but he did hit 13 homers in 2017 and eight last year, so he is not a total loss there.  He improved his strikeout rate in the minors in 2018 and if he can maintain that in the majors, his speed should make him an asset in batting average, although he did struggle in that category early in his minor league career.

A lot of his value could depend on where the Indians decide to hit him in the lineup as that will impact the number of opportunities he gets to run. It will also depend on his runs scored in a lineup that is anything but strong on the back half. While he isn't playing Thursday, one would think that the Tribe won't let an intriguing prospect sit on the bench regularly for Jordan Luplow (I know, he has been hot) and Carlos Gonzalez. I think Mercado may get a bit lost in bidding this week with some bigger names getting called up after him, but if you need steals — and those are very tough to find in free agency right now — he is very worthy of a medium sized bid.

Nicky Lopez. Among the big names called up, Lopez is likely the least well-known, but he has an interesting profile to take a look at in fantasy leagues. Most importantly, the Royals have actually come out and said he isn't up to play part-time and will be the everyday second baseman for now. They even moved Whit Merrifield to full-time outfield duties. In addition, the Royals also slotted him in the two hole in his first three games, a very nice spot between Merrifield and Adalberto Mondesi. Lopez already has responded with five hits and three walks, hitting the ground running at full speed.

The crazy thing that sticks out in Lopez' profile so far this season in the minors is the bonkers 5/20 K/BB rate, and no, I did not transpose those numbers! Lopez has been an elite contact guy in the minors, and combined with his speed, that has made him a nice batting average asset with a career .296 mark in the minors. Lopez hasn't been a huge stolen base threat in the minors, but did swipe nine bags in only 31 games this year after stealing 15 last year across two levels and comes to a team that is very willing to let their players run. If he continues to hit second, he has a chance to be an asset in three categories, and while he isn't going to help you with power, he figures to not be a total zero there with nine homers last year in the minors. Lopez is not the sexiest add this week by any means, but sneakily will be a guy who really helps with his skill set combined with his lineup spot and team commitment.

Brendan Rodgers. Rodgers hasn't been officially recalled as I write this, but by all "sources," the 2015 third overall pick is getting the call on Friday and will have played in plenty of time before the Sunday FAAB pools to lock. After a 17 homer/12 stolen base campaign in Double-A in 2018, Rodgers has been blistering Triple-A so far this season to the tune of a .356 batting average and .644 slugging percentage with nine homers in only 35 games. Aside the obvious talent, the added appeal on Rodgers is that he will get half his games in Coors Field. The downside on Rodgers comes from the team dynamic, not only because the Rockies have found a way to mess with rookies' playing time over the last couple of seasons, but also the fact that are not likely to just not play Ryan McMahon or Daniel Murphy at all.

The initial callup rumors started when Trevor Story bruised his knee at Fenway this week, but all reports are that his injury is minor and he could as soon as Friday. Rodgers' path to everyday playing time comes at second base where the Rockies have already sent down Garrett Hampson, and while McMahon has had a few moments and is a well thought of prospect, he is still hitting only .242 with three homers, as the Rockies have struggled to replace DJ LeMahieu so far in 2019. McMahon and Murphy are also both lefties, and this gives the Rockies the ability to sit them both against lefties if they want to. If I trusted the Rockies more to just let Rodgers play upon his callup, I'd be fully be in on a stud prospect coming to play a summer at Coors, and while I'lol be bidding, I admit the team dynamic will probably temper my bids unless I see some quotes from the team that say otherwise.

Keston Hiura. I saw Hiura up close this spring, and I was impressed by his bad speed as he hit a homer in the game I attended in Mesa. Hiura got the call earlier this week when the struggling Travis Shaw headed to the Injured List for a strained right wrist. The complication with Hiura comes from the unknown of how the Brewers will handle Shaw when he gets back from the Injured List. Shaw is only hitting .163 this year with a massive 32.5 percent strikeout rate, but he's still a guy who's hit 30 homers for the Brewers in each of the past two seasons, so it might be tough for them to give up on him. Conceivably, Shaw could take over for Eric Thames as the part-time lefty platoon partner for Jesus Aguilar at first base and then maybe fill in for Hiura or Mike Moustakas as needed.

The 22-year old Hiura was the ninth overall pick in the 2017 draft and is the Brewers top offensive prospect. He has been an absolute monster to start the Triple-A season, mashing 11 homers in 37 games on his way to an impressive 1.106 OPS. In his first full season in the minors in 2018, Hiura hit 13 homers with a .293 average in 123 games across Single and Double-A, and also tossed in 15 stolen bases. If Hiura can start hot and the Brewers hand is forced, he finds himself in a really nice lineup and home park, which ramps up his upside even further. I think Hiura will be very popular this weekend with a high bid needed to win him, especially since he qualifies at second base. I like an aggressive move on Hiura, as the Brewers are in contention this year and it's their best interest to put the best lineup on the field right away. I think that ends up being Hiura most days.

Willie Calhoun. Calhoun was called up by the Rangers on Thursday when Elvis Andrus hit the Injured List for what is being called a mild hamstring strain. Calhoun is interesting as he is the one guy in this list who was popular in drafts last year as he was coming off a late-season trade to the Rangers from the Dodgers and assumed to be the Ranger starting left fielder to begin 2018 after homering 31 times in Triple-A in 2017. The 2018 season did not go as planned, as Calhoun had trouble in the field and was reportedly upset about starting the year in the minors. He eventually did get called up to the Rangers last year but struggled in the bigs, hitting only .222 while striking out 22.2 percent of the time in 35 games. The strikeouts were a big surprise, as he has been an elite contact guy in the minors, usually hovering somewhere around an 11 percent strikeout rate.

After homering only nine times last year in the minors, Calhoun has rediscovered his power stroke this year, hitting eight homers already in 32 games. Calhoun could help in power and average, usually a difficult combination to find in free agency. How you feel about Calhoun moving forward this year depends on how real you think Hunter Pence is, as for Calhoun to really get full-time at bats against righties, it will come at the expense of Pence, as Shin-Soo Choo, Joey Gallo and Nomar Mazara are not going to sit against many righties. The Rangers could use a solid right handed bat in their outfield, but Calhoun is going to need Pence to regress to his 2016-2018 self to really lock into everyday at bats. Hitting in the summer in Texas is always intriguing, and if Calhoun can finally find his way into the lineup every day, he becomes a very valuable bat, and there's a chance he could slide under the radar at lower prices than the other bats mentioned above since his sparkle wore off a bit for people after last season.

Corbin Martin. The one pitcher on this list actually made his debut last Sunday, but in many leagues, including the NFBC, he wasn't available last weekend, as he hadn't seen any major league action by the time the player pool closed on Sunday morning. Martin made his MLB debut on Sunday, striking out nine Rangers over 5.1 innings while allowing only two earned runs. He spent the majority of his 2018 at Double-A, posting a 2.97 ERA over 103 innings, but his strikeout rate was not very exciting at 8.4 K/9. He did manage to induce a lot of ground balls at 47.3 percent and has been a ground baller throughout his time in the minors.

Martin throws hard (95.8 mph average in his first start) and also features a curve ball and a changeup. Right now, my favorite aspect in terms of fantasy value with Martin is the situation he's in. The Astros are a great team to pitch for, as they score a ton of runs and pitchers have thrived in their system as of late. Further, he has a chance to run with this job, as the Astros seem pretty set on moving Collin McHugh into a bullpen role, and their two young starters whom a lot of people liked preseason, Josh James and Forrest Whitley, haven't pitched well this year and don't seem anywhere near grabbing rotation jobs in Houston.

Martin's acquisition price will depend on how he pitches this weekend in a tough start in Fenway, but if he's good there, the price is going to really fly high. If he's just fine, the price should still be high, but he might be available at a decent price if he gets hit hard by the Red Sox. My bids will be affected by that second start, but with starting pitching seeing a lot of injuries lately, I'm planning on being aggressive on Martin and hope all the hype of the slew of offensive callups plus maybe just an average start Saturday in Boston will keep his price in the manageable range, but I tend to doubt it.

Series of the Weekend

Rays at Yankees. Only six teams in baseball find themselves with a .600 winning percentage and the fact that two of them are facing each other this weekend makes this a clear series to focus your eyeballs on this weekend. The Rays have come out of the gate hot this year, but the Yankees have managed to weather all their injuries and come into the series winners of eight of their past 10 games, and find themselves only a half game back of the Rays.

With almost all the big bats in New York missing time, one of the constants in the lineup has been Gleyber Torres who leads the team with 155 at-bats. He has continued the success he found in 2018 this year, currently sporting a .290 average for eight homers and has also tossed in three steals. Torres has taken some steps up this year, dropping his strikeout rate to 21 percent and upping his hard hit rate to 43.1 percent. As the Yankees injured stars come back, Torres will also get a bump in his counting categories, but in these first six weeks, Torres' has been the rock in the Yankees lineup they desperately needed.

The Rays are in the bottom half of baseball in runs scored, but sport a seemingly impossible team ERA of 2.82, more a half a run better than any other team. Unfortunately, the Tyler Glasnow full breakout is in a timeout right now, but Sunday's starter, Charlie Morton, has also been huge for the Rays. Morton has made nine starts in his first season with the Rays and has compiled a 2.32 ERA while fully maintaining his 2018 strikeout rate, currently sitting at 10.9 K/9 to go with a career high 12.4 percent swinging strike rate. Further, in a season that has seen elevated hard contact all over baseball, Morton has actually dropped his hard hit rate to 26.1 percent. He has also dropped his exit velocity to 84.5 mph (from 87.1 mph in 2018), putting him in the top five of all starting pitchers, and has also allowed four barrels total through nine starts. With Yonny Chirinos (with his sparkling 0.92 Whip), Blake Snell and Morton going this weekend in Yankees Stadium, this series should be a fantastic test for the Yankees offense and a really fun series to check out.