Mound Musings Q&A: Endgame Odyssey, the National League

Brad Johnson discusses upheaval in NL bullpens including in Cincinnati where Emilio Pagan has proven to be a capable closer when he's healthy.
Mound Musings Q&A: Endgame Odyssey, the National League

Last week we examined some shaky AL bullpens, but they don't have a monopoly by any means. The are plenty of bullpens in the National League with evolving roles, which includes teams making decisions on who will get the call in the ninth inning.

With so many undecided bullpen scenarios, I found myself leaning to a specific plan of attack on draft day. Basically, I targeted an actual closer to anchor my bullpen, then tried to fill in behind him with pitchers I felt could eventually work themselves into relatively consistent save chances. Challenging? Absolutely! However, there is great satisfaction in outmaneuvering your opponents. This approach tests your scouting and assessment skills as many times the mainstream will select a pitcher – often the primary set-up guy – and label that pitcher the next in line for saves. Interestingly, that guy is only the benefactor in maybe half of the scenarios. Sometimes there is a better option. Our goal here is to identify him, hopefully before the word gets out.

Let's review some NL bullpens with question marks as we navigate the 2026 season:

Pirates – Here is an NL Central team, a division that could see any of the five teams emerge as division champion. Rumors circulated on and off over the past couple years that closer David Bednar might be dealt, and it finally happened. He's with the Yankees now. Bednar struggled at times but they do not seem to have an ideal replacement. There is a decent

Last week we examined some shaky AL bullpens, but they don't have a monopoly by any means. The are plenty of bullpens in the National League with evolving roles, which includes teams making decisions on who will get the call in the ninth inning.

With so many undecided bullpen scenarios, I found myself leaning to a specific plan of attack on draft day. Basically, I targeted an actual closer to anchor my bullpen, then tried to fill in behind him with pitchers I felt could eventually work themselves into relatively consistent save chances. Challenging? Absolutely! However, there is great satisfaction in outmaneuvering your opponents. This approach tests your scouting and assessment skills as many times the mainstream will select a pitcher – often the primary set-up guy – and label that pitcher the next in line for saves. Interestingly, that guy is only the benefactor in maybe half of the scenarios. Sometimes there is a better option. Our goal here is to identify him, hopefully before the word gets out.

Let's review some NL bullpens with question marks as we navigate the 2026 season:

Pirates – Here is an NL Central team, a division that could see any of the five teams emerge as division champion. Rumors circulated on and off over the past couple years that closer David Bednar might be dealt, and it finally happened. He's with the Yankees now. Bednar struggled at times but they do not seem to have an ideal replacement. There is a decent compliment of set-up arms that includes righties Justin Lawrence, Dennis Santana and southpaw Gregory Soto. Soto is seeing the ninth-inning work early this season with Santana pitching the eighth in a practice dictated by matchups, but none of them really profiles as a closer. Looking for a sleeper? Keep an eye on Jose Urquidy who is new to the club after missing time due to TJ surgery.

Diamondbacks – We'll pass along kudos to a fine committee. The D-backs have often relied on set-up guys like Kevin Ginkel to finish games the past couple seasons, but they probably want A.J. Puk to claim the gig and run with it. He has an electric arm (when its firmly attached), but injuries have tarnished his recent results, and he's hurt right now and not expected back until June. This is, thankfully, one of those relatively deep pens. They have righties Justin Martinez, Ryan Thompson, Jonathan Loaisiga and Taylor Clarke to bridge from the starter to the end-gamer. The end-gamer, with Puk out, looks a lot like Paul Sewald. He's not too bad and might even keep the job when Puk returns, or at least hold the right side of a committee.

Reds – The Reds look competitive in the tough NL Central, but there are questions to be answered in their bullpen. They currently have a more or less proven closer in Emilio Pagan. He has battled some injuries that have impacted his command. When healthy and in sync, he's pretty capable. Meanwhile their setup guys, are competent. The consensus focuses on Tony Santillan and Graham Ashcraft – who are both solid set-up guys – combining with southpaw Caleb Ferguson. Closing is not new to Pagan, who saved 20 games in 2019 for Tampa Bay, but he might be a bit miscast in the role now. Santillan has the arm – he can touch the upper 90s – and he has displayed respectable command – and the ability to miss bats. They have filled in well for Pagan, and I think there's a decent chance they take over as the primary closers long term. This is a fairly deep bullpen with other set-up men Pierce Johnson and Brock Burke.  

Rockies – I'll save readers some time. I almost just neglected to include Colorado's bullpen in this review, but the bottom line is there is no bottom line. Victor Vodnik is probably the favorite for save chances, but I am hesitant to jump on his bandwagon. Tell me if you've heard this before: "Very live arm with electric stuff, but he can't be relied upon to throw strikes." That would more or less be Mr. Vodnik. He can close, if he can throw strikes, but that's a big if. Others who have seen the ninth inning (or have been rumored to see it someday) include Juan Mejia, Brennan Bernardino, Jaden Hill and Jimmy Herget. They are collectively scary (that's being kind). Combine that with pitching half their games in Coors Field. Yikes! It's rare when I can't find anyone with strong positives, but here we are.

Marlins – This one appears to be sorting itself out this year, as their best option, newly signed Pete Fairbanks, who stayed healthy and closed regularly for Tampa Bay in 2025, is now plying his trade in Miami, albeit even as a short starter? They just hope the good health continues. If it doesn't – he has quite a history – that would leave the door open for a cast of several options including Anthony Bender (my top alternate) and other decent set-up guys like Lake Bachar, Calvin Faucher, Tyler Phillips and lefty Andrew Nardi who could all get into the mix at some point. Bender appears to be a lukewarm choice with most of the alternatives banged up right now. I do, of course, also have a dark horse I am watching. Keep an eye on Bachar. Yes, he's still learning on the job, and I still don't think he's quite ready, but he could grow into it. I expect this to maybe be a hot hand assignment if anything happens to Fairbanks. Right now, Bender is doing a respectable job, but if he falters, we could get a look at whoever is next in line. 

Nationals – Let's go back to those old school days. Books on the floor; here's your test. Q1. Who's the best closer option in Washington? A. Clayton Beeter, B. Brad Lord, C. Cionel Perez, D. Cole Henry, or E. None of the above. Right now, it's pretty much Beeter – the most legitimate closer in the bunch. Realistically, Lord, with his name on so many other innings, probably isn't in the closer considerations, but I really don't feel Perez or Henry are ideal candidates. This is actually a fairly deep pen with those mentioned joined by the ho-hum Gus Varland, Paxton Schultz and PJ Poulin any of whom could serve as a set-up man. So, I guess the answer to our question, at least for now, is none of the above. Unless the Nationals go shopping or Beeter gets his act together, this could be a closer by committee. I think Beeter still gets a slight edge now, but any of the options could step in at some point.

Cardinals – Like most of these, there are options here, and the possibility of a right/left committee approach. My choice for saves leader is Riley O'Brien. He took over closing duties from southpaw JoJo Romero in September of last year, and he has already logged saves this year. My guess is he and Romero will split save chances as long as they avoid meltdowns. Theoretically, Ryne Stanek could also be in the mix, but I think somebody would need to open the door for him. Their pen is relatively deep, so they should be able to get the game to the ninth-inning guys. Stay tuned on this one.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

  • Initially it sounded like a minor arm injury, perhaps a couple weeks off, but as the Cubs looked into it further, they found Cade Horton's injury to be far worse, and they have announced he will miss the rest of the 2026 season. They were already dealing with injuries, so finding a quality replacement won't be easy.
  • Depth can evaporate quickly. Zach Eflin joined six other Orioles pitchers on the disabled list after undergoing TJ surgery late last week. Luckily, while Eflin is not expected back until mid-season next year, only one of the other arms is expected back (Colin Selby due back in May) later than the end of this month.
  • Colorado's Kyle Freeland got some attention by starting out posting pretty solid numbers in his first couple starts, but things came screeching to a halt when he was unexpectedly scratched from his start last weekend.
  • If you can pitch, you can win. Ask the Twins. Taj Bradley is off to a 3-0 start with a 1.25 ERA. His ratio could be better if he can cut down the walks. I think that will happen as the season wears on. He's not allowing many runs, as he has logged 29 strikeouts in just 21 innings. And, it all looks for real. Get on board.
  • I have said for years that pitching for the Cubs is bad juju. Jameson Taillon has long been a favorite pitcher, but he has the little bear on his uniform. What do you do? I just can't do it. Having Cubs on my roster could bring on another ice age or begin a fire that could consume the entire city of Chicago.

For next week, the plan is to take a quick look at a couple pitchers off to lackluster starts you might want to pursue, and conversely, to identify pitchers off to hot starts you might want to avoid.

Find out which projected starters are going and when with RotoWire's Probable Pitchers page!

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
For more than 30 years, pitching guru Brad "Bogfella" Johnson has provided insightful evaluation and analysis of pitchers to a wide variety of fantasy baseball websites, webcasts and radio broadcasts. He joined RotoWire in 2011 with his popular Bogfella's Notebook.
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