Mound Musings: Time to Pull the Chute?

A month has passed, and we are now about to move into May. This is typically a time I try to sort through my pitching staff, and take a good long look at any underperformers. We're far enough through the season most starting pitchers have taken about six or seven turns. That should be long enough for the majority to work through any latent mechanical issues, or get healthy, or build up normal arm strength/endurance. There are exceptions, so every dog might not get the heave-ho, but I am at that point in the season where I need a viable reason to accept poor performance.

That said, I would like to feature a few pitchers who have made us wonder, "what was I thinking?" as we reflect on draft day. As readers know, I am painfully patient, but at some point, we have to draw a line. Should we pull the chute or hang on just a wee bit longer? Just keep in mind, fantasy relies on what's coming next.

Let's take a look at some significant underperformers:

Lance Lynn (White Sox, 0-3, 7.52 ERA, 1.78 WHIP) – I have never been a huge Lynn fan. For one thing, even though he would sometimes have stretches of effectiveness, he has pretty consistently offset those good times with beatings. Notably, the bad times frequently came later in the season as he appeared to wear down. I have many times suggested selling high if you owned him early on. In 2023, Lynn hurt his knee and missed the first two months. Having not pitched enough innings to wear down, he had a pretty good year. This year the script might be a bit different. The bad times have already begun. His first start of the year was his best, but it was just mediocre, and subsequent starts have been anything but encouraging. His strikeout rate is actually up a bit, but he is walking more, and pitching behind so hitters are sitting on the fastball which equates to batters hitting over .300 against him. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Chris Sale (Red Sox, 1-2, 8.22 ERA, 1.74 WHIP) – I think it's only fair to give a pitcher who has missed a very long time a little more time to sort things out once he returns. I think this clearly applies to Sale who has pitched less than 50 innings since 2019. He has taken a regular turn this year (five starts) but he has lasted longer than five innings in just one of those starts. And, it's not that they have an inordinately tight leash on him, but rather his pitch counts have been elevated, and he's really not fooling anyone with his off-speed stuff. He does have one excellent out against the Twins with 11 strikeouts, but he followed that up with another clinker (no strikeouts). Verdict: Hung jury.

Patrick Corbin (Nationals, 1-3, 5.88 ERA, 1.69 WHIP) – He has given owners quite the rollercoaster ride over the past few years. He was once a mainstay on my roster, but that was back when the Nationals and Corbin were performing well. As I have mentioned in a couple previous editions of the Musings, the most frustrating part is you can usually tell what you will get today after only a few pitches. If he is spotting the fastball for effect, and the slider is crisp as it darts out of the strike zone at the last second, sit back and enjoy the game. If those things aren't happening, you might want to switch channels. His velocity has been up and down, and his command has been very erratic. Those both suggest a need for major mechanical adjustments, but there has been time enough to accomplish that. One side of me says be patient, but the other side says your ERA and WHIP can't take many more of those meltdowns. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Madison Bumgarner (Diamondbacks, 0-3, 10.26 ERA, 2.40 WHIP) – He has been a stalwart of pitching rotations, most notably in playoff settings, but those days seem like distant memories now. Mad Bum is only 33, but his arm (as well as his back and the rest of his body) has a lot of miles on it. Injuries were a huge part of his velocity dropping (down almost 4 mph in 2020). It rebounded somewhat, but has been back down this season, and I think he continues to struggle pitching with diminished stuff. He claims to have been pitching through more injuries, but things got so bad the D'backs designated him for assignment (since released). Maybe injuries are impacting his performance, but only time will tell that for certain. Right now, Arizona and your fantasy team have something in common. Neither can afford to roster him. Verdict: Pull the chute.

Miles Mikolas (Cardinals, 0-1, 7.46 ERA, 1.89 WHIP) – One of the things I have come to expect from pitchers who have spent time overseas is reasonable command of a fully functional repertoire. When Mikolas returned from Japan, he was able to work within those parameters. Not overpowering, he didn't provide a high strikeout rate but he didn't walk hitters, got ahead in counts, and induced soft contact. Basically, a solid innings eater pitching for a good team. This season he has been behind in the count too often leading to the highest walk rate since the pre-Japan days. Further, as so often happens in those situations, hitters wait for a juicy one, and his BABIP of .407 is the unlucky price he is paying. He has been showing signs of coming out of his funk and he's due for some good luck so maybe a few balls will be at someone. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Alek Manoah (Blue Jays, 1-1, 5.13 ERA, 1.56 WHIP) – What do you do when a Cy Young finalist from the previous year posts an ugly 6.98 ERA with an even uglier 1.97 WHIP over his first four starts. Answer. You wait. I actually composed this list prior to Manoah's last start against the Yankees. Ahhh. It was like 2022 the sequel. Seven innings, two hits, and just one walk against a good hitting team. He registered just five strikeouts so it would be nice to see more whiffs, but he was clearly more comfortable in this start. He's one I feel has been affected by the pitch clock. One start does not a season make, but it certainly is encouraging. Verdict: Hold onto him.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Max Scherzer was considered for the disappointment list above, but I would think just a little more rosin could solve his problems. All kidding aside, getting a 10 game/two start suspension wasn't the best idea. I actually think there could be more suspensions now that the situation has been brought out of the closet.
• Minnesota's Sonny Gray hasn't gotten the pub from me. I've touted a few other starters like Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez, and even Kenta Maeda is on the radar, but Gray and his 0.62 ERA – that's right, the first number is a zero – has barely gotten a mention. The Twins staff is legit; and fun to watch!
• There have been a couple big surprises like the Pirates, and the Diamondbacks who, led by Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, are leading the NL West. They have more to show us too. I think Brandon Pfaadt will be making his debut very soon, and he has the stuff, and command, to likely be effective right away.
• I continue to look for reasons to recommend Clarke Schmidt. He was very ordinary, or worse, in his first few starts, but he looked much sharper in his most recent outing against Toronto. As long as he gets ahead in the count, he can be a useful fantasy option. I expect more improvement as the season progresses.

Endgame Odyssey:

Is it possible the Phillies have solved their closer dilemma? Jose Alvarado has jumped into the fray in a big way. He has always had the huge arm, but prior to this year locating the strike zone has been a problem. He has looked good but Seranthony Dominguez should still be on your radar. Daniel Bard is back with the Rockies, and I think if all goes smoothly, he could eventually take save chances away from Pierce Johnson. I don't think A.J. Puk has officially been tagged as Miami's closer, but it has to be close. Dylan Floro likely slides into the primary set-up slot. When Oakland's Dany Jimenez went down, I tabbed Jeurys Familia as the most likely fantasy benefactor. As long as he avoids any meltdowns, I think he's the guy. In Detroit, Alex Lange continues to leave the door open for someone to nab the closer's gig. The most recent applicant has been Jason Foley. He's not awful, but I think Lange is still the best option. Ryan Pressly is still the closer in Houston – sometimes. He pitched last Friday, but was then listed as "unavailable" the next two games. Something is up. Owners might want to seek out Bryan Abreu who is Pressly's caddy. Lately we have seen lefty Andrew Chafin closing in Arizona. He's certainly not a prototypical closer, but realistic options are not readily available. Scott McGough was inconsistent, and while he has a closer's arm, Miguel Castro's command remains a work in progress.