Last week, I examined some highly rostered, underperforming hitters. This week, it's the pitchers' turn. For the leaderboard, I used the FanGraphs Player Rater and then found the starting pitchers with the lowest production who are rostered in at least 50 percent of leagues in the NFBC's RotoWire Online Championship.
Here are the 30 worst performers whose managers are still holding out hope for a rebound.
| Name | Roster% | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | SO | Dollars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 63% | 42 | 2 | 6.96 | 1.62 | 35 | -$18.9 |
| Mike Burrows | 61% | 56 | 2 | 5.75 | 1.53 | 48 | -$17.1 |
| Aaron Nola | 62% | 56 | 3 | 5.72 | 1.45 | 56 | -$12.1 |
| Tanner Bibee | 100% | 63 | 0 | 4.57 | 1.32 | 55 | -$10.3 |
| Shane Baz | 93% | 64 | 2 | 4.48 | 1.43 | 57 | -$10.2 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 60% | 9 | 1 | 10.61 | 2.14 | 9 | -$10.1 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 100% | 75 | 3 | 4.66 | 1.33 | 52 | -$9.9 |
| Zac Gallen | 84% | 54 | 3 | 4.80 | 1.44 | 40 | -$9.6 |
| Bubba Chandler | 97% | 47 | 1 | 4.60 | 1.47 | 47 | -$9.3 |
| Logan Webb | 100% | 48 | 2 | 5.06 | 1.40 | 42 | -$8.7 |
| Jack Leiter | 99% | 60 | 2 | 4.75 | 1.37 | 64 | -$7.5 |
| Robbie Ray | 98% | 58 | 3 | 4.60 | 1.38 | 53 | -$6.7 |
| Roki Sasaki | 98% | 45 | 3 | 4.93 | 1.42 | 43 | -$6.5 |
| Andrew Abbott | 98% | 56 | 4 | 3.97 | 1.46 | 38 | -$6.4 |
| Merrill Kelly | 99% | 48 | 5 | 5.25 | 1.42 | 31 | -$6.4 |
| Blake Snell | 67% | 3 | 0 | 12.00 | 2.67 | 5 | -$6.4 |
| Kyle Bradish | 100% | 58 | 2 | 3.86 | 1.47 | 61 | -$6.3 |
| Framber Valdez | 100% | 61 | 2 | 4.28 | 1.33 | 50 | -$6.2 |
| Nick Lodolo | 99% | 21 | 1 | 5.57 | 1.38 | 18 | -$5.9 |
| Seth Lugo | 97% | 65 |
Last week, I examined some highly rostered, underperforming hitters. This week, it's the pitchers' turn. For the leaderboard, I used the FanGraphs Player Rater and then found the starting pitchers with the lowest production who are rostered in at least 50 percent of leagues in the NFBC's RotoWire Online Championship.
Here are the 30 worst performers whose managers are still holding out hope for a rebound.
| Name | Roster% | IP | W | ERA | WHIP | SO | Dollars |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trevor Rogers | 63% | 42 | 2 | 6.96 | 1.62 | 35 | -$18.9 |
| Mike Burrows | 61% | 56 | 2 | 5.75 | 1.53 | 48 | -$17.1 |
| Aaron Nola | 62% | 56 | 3 | 5.72 | 1.45 | 56 | -$12.1 |
| Tanner Bibee | 100% | 63 | 0 | 4.57 | 1.32 | 55 | -$10.3 |
| Shane Baz | 93% | 64 | 2 | 4.48 | 1.43 | 57 | -$10.2 |
| Grayson Rodriguez | 60% | 9 | 1 | 10.61 | 2.14 | 9 | -$10.1 |
| Sandy Alcantara | 100% | 75 | 3 | 4.66 | 1.33 | 52 | -$9.9 |
| Zac Gallen | 84% | 54 | 3 | 4.80 | 1.44 | 40 | -$9.6 |
| Bubba Chandler | 97% | 47 | 1 | 4.60 | 1.47 | 47 | -$9.3 |
| Logan Webb | 100% | 48 | 2 | 5.06 | 1.40 | 42 | -$8.7 |
| Jack Leiter | 99% | 60 | 2 | 4.75 | 1.37 | 64 | -$7.5 |
| Robbie Ray | 98% | 58 | 3 | 4.60 | 1.38 | 53 | -$6.7 |
| Roki Sasaki | 98% | 45 | 3 | 4.93 | 1.42 | 43 | -$6.5 |
| Andrew Abbott | 98% | 56 | 4 | 3.97 | 1.46 | 38 | -$6.4 |
| Merrill Kelly | 99% | 48 | 5 | 5.25 | 1.42 | 31 | -$6.4 |
| Blake Snell | 67% | 3 | 0 | 12.00 | 2.67 | 5 | -$6.4 |
| Kyle Bradish | 100% | 58 | 2 | 3.86 | 1.47 | 61 | -$6.3 |
| Framber Valdez | 100% | 61 | 2 | 4.28 | 1.33 | 50 | -$6.2 |
| Nick Lodolo | 99% | 21 | 1 | 5.57 | 1.38 | 18 | -$5.9 |
| Seth Lugo | 97% | 65 | 2 | 3.74 | 1.38 | 54 | -$5.7 |
| Cole Ragans | 100% | 35 | 1 | 4.84 | 1.42 | 45 | -$5.7 |
| Garrett Crochet | 100% | 30 | 3 | 6.30 | 1.47 | 37 | -$5.6 |
| Kumar Rocker | 56% | 50 | 2 | 3.96 | 1.36 | 42 | -$4.4 |
| Eury Perez | 100% | 58 | 3 | 4.91 | 1.30 | 63 | -$4.0 |
| Carlos Rodon | 100% | 13 | 0 | 4.15 | 1.46 | 17 | -$4.0 |
| Ryne Nelson | 100% | 60 | 2 | 4.65 | 1.18 | 49 | -$3.6 |
| Christian Scott | 98% | 25 | 0 | 3.20 | 1.38 | 30 | -$3.0 |
| Matthew Boyd | 50% | 24 | 2 | 6.00 | 1.29 | 31 | -$2.9 |
| Edward Cabrera | 94% | 54 | 3 | 4.00 | 1.35 | 47 | -$2.8 |
| Griffin Jax | 97% | 30 | 1 | 3.30 | 1.37 | 27 | -$2.5 |
And here are my thoughts on some of the biggest underperformers.
Trevor Rogers: All of Rogers' struggles this season (6.96 ERA, 4.71 xFIP, 1.62 WHIP, 7.4 K/9), center around the left-handed pitcher's inability to get righties out. Against them, he has a six percent K-BB% and has allowed a .911 OPS. Against lefties, it's a 19 percent K-BB% and a .588 OPS.
Not much has changed from last season, when he handled righties just fine (17 percent K-BB%). Some websites say he has a new pitch (10 percent usage) that gets labeled as a sweeper or cutter, but he threw the pitch last season. Probably the only difference centers around his control. He went from a 31.8 percent ball rate to a 34.6 percent ball rate and from a 55 percent zone rate to a 46 percent zone rate.
Mike Burrows: Like Rogers, the right-handed Burrows struggles against opposite-handed hitters. On the season, lefties are hitting 1.011 OPS (six percent K-BB%) against him, while it's a .693 OPS (18 percent K-BB%) for righties.
Also, Burrows' fastballs are getting crushed, as they dropped from averaging 95.6 mph to 94.8 mph. Finally, he has been behind in the count more with his ball rate up one point, zone rate down six points, and first strike percentage down two points.
Drop. I'm not even sure if he is worth streaming off the wire at this point.
Aaron Nola: Since Nola's fastball dropped under 92 mph last season, he's getting hit around (.323 BABIP, 1.7 HR/9), leading to horrible results (5.72 ERA, 1.45 WHIP). He's throwing his four-seamer and sinker a combined 46 percent of the time, and he also throws an 86 mph cutter nine percent of the time. Usually, pitchers who throw this soft lean into their sinker to generate groundballs. The problem is that his sinker has a 30 percent groundball rate on the season.
And like the first two guys, he doesn't have an answer for lefties (25 percent K-BB% vs righties, eight percent K-BB% vs lefties) with his changeup not missing bats (seven percent swinging strike rate).
Tanner Bibee: While Bibee's underlying numbers haven't been great (4.14 xFIP, 3.99 botERA, 1.32 WHIP), they are decent enough for him to be a streaming option. Also, he needs to lower his home run rate, which has increased every year (from 0.8 HR/9 to 1.1 to 1.3 to 1.7). While not a ton, his K-BB% dropped for the second straight season (from 20 percent to 14 percent to 13 percent). He's not trending in the right direction.
He's a league-average pitcher having a bit of bad home run luck.
Shane Baz: Baz's problem is that he walks too many batters (3.8 BB/9) with no signs of improving (4.8 BB/9 over his last five starts). His 1.43 WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 5.10 ERA.
Additionally, he has not been that good. Of the 49 pitchers with 60 IP, his 10.8 percent K-BB% is the seventh lowest. He can be relied upon again once he can get his walks under control for three or four starts.
Grayson Rodriguez: It's only been two horrible starts (11 ER, 6 BB, 9 IP), so he could turn his season around. He is giving up too many walks (5.8 BB/9), but did improve in his second start (4 BB in 3 IP to 2 BB in 5 IP). He might not be fully ready after being on the IL with shoulder inflammation.
With the horrible starts on the record, he could improve but be unnoticeable to other fantasy managers. At this point, he should not be started, but keep an eye on his progress for a potential sleeper.
Sandy Alcantara: Alcantara is dealing with two issues, with the first being somewhat related to the second. First, he's barely striking anyone out. His 6.2 K/9 is the fourth lowest among qualified starters.
Like many of the guys today, the righty can't get outs against opposite-handed hitters. On the season, lefties are posting a .837 OPS (13 percent K-BB%) against him, while it's just a .626 OPS (seven percent K-BB%) for righties.
Finally, since returning from Tommy John surgery, Alcantara's struggles can be linked to his fastball having a ~25 percent swinging strike rate before and a 16 percent swinging strike rate after.
He needs to get his fastball back to return to his former self.
Zac Gallen: I added Gallen for his two-step last week (11 IP, 2 W, 11 K, 3.97 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) and sent him to the curb. Like Alcantara, a sub-7.0 K/9 is not going to cut it. On top of the low strikeout rate, he's getting hit around (.310 BABIP), thereby inflating his 4.80 ERA and 1.44 WHIP.
One issue this season is that the effectiveness of his changeup has disappeared, going from a 14 percent swinging strike rate to six percent. With no way to get out lefties, he has a 4.95 xFIP against them compared to a 3.53 xFIP against righties.
Bench or waiver wire streamer.
Bubba Chandler: Chandler's status is up in the air as he struggles (4.60 ERA, 5.10 xFIP, 1.47 WHIP) with Jared Jones about to come off the IL. Chandler has been unstartable this season with a 6.5 BB/9 (7.0 BB/9 in May), the highest among starters with 40 IP.
I could see the Pirates go several different directions, especially since they are three games over .500 and one game out of the Wild Card. He could go back to Triple-A to work on his command. He could head to the bullpen. Or he could end up on the IL with a mystery injury. Nobody knows.
Logan Webb: I'm not going to evaluate Webb until he comes off the IL.
Jack Leiter: Too many walks are killing Leiter's fantasy value. While he's been a little unlucky on batted balls, his 3.9 BB/9 is the reason he has a 4.75 ERA and 1.37 WHIP. He has always struggled with walks (4.3 BB/9 in '24, 4.0 BB/9 in '25) and needed a .267 BABIP to have a successful 2025 season (3.86 ERA, 4.53 xFIP).
While the ERA could drop, his WHIP is doing as much ratio damage as a 4.75 ERA. Find a better option.
