The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? This week, we will be focusing on players from the American League.
Trending Up
Travis Bazzana, 2B, 
Cleveland Guardians
When he was called up in late April, Bazzana was broken into the Guardians' lineup as their No. 7 hitter. Less than a month later, the former No. 1 overall pick is the team's new leadoff man.
Over the past four contests, Bazzana has sat atop the Cleveland batting order, once against a lefty opener (and righty primary pitcher) and three times against a righty. Prior to that, he had hit as low as eighth and as high as fifth. After a rough first week or so in the big leagues, Bazzana is sporting a .333/.425/.522 batting line with three home runs, five stolen bases and a 9:14 BB:K across his last 80 plate appearances. His quality of contact hasn't been great, with his hard-hit rate (36.1 percent), barrel rate (4.1 percent) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph) all ranking right around the league average or a little below. However, Bazzana is making it work with an impressive squared-up rate (31.7 percent) along with elite plate discipline (16.5 percent strikeout rate, 13.8 percent walk rate, 20.7 percent chase rate).
Most of the left-handed-hitting Bazzana's production has come versus righties (.311/.432/.459), so he might not be entrusted with the leadoff role
The goal with Lineup Lowdown is simple: we're looking for trends which could help identify players that might be undervalued or overvalued. Who is playing more/less? Who is moving up/down? This week, we will be focusing on players from the American League.
Trending Up
Travis Bazzana, 2B, Cleveland Guardians
When he was called up in late April, Bazzana was broken into the Guardians' lineup as their No. 7 hitter. Less than a month later, the former No. 1 overall pick is the team's new leadoff man.
Over the past four contests, Bazzana has sat atop the Cleveland batting order, once against a lefty opener (and righty primary pitcher) and three times against a righty. Prior to that, he had hit as low as eighth and as high as fifth. After a rough first week or so in the big leagues, Bazzana is sporting a .333/.425/.522 batting line with three home runs, five stolen bases and a 9:14 BB:K across his last 80 plate appearances. His quality of contact hasn't been great, with his hard-hit rate (36.1 percent), barrel rate (4.1 percent) and average exit velocity (89.5 mph) all ranking right around the league average or a little below. However, Bazzana is making it work with an impressive squared-up rate (31.7 percent) along with elite plate discipline (16.5 percent strikeout rate, 13.8 percent walk rate, 20.7 percent chase rate).
Most of the left-handed-hitting Bazzana's production has come versus righties (.311/.432/.459), so he might not be entrusted with the leadoff role against lefties (.258/.343/.387). Still, the 23-year-old's start to his big-league career couldn't be going much better.
Ceddanne Rafaela, 2B/OF, 
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have been searching for something, anything, to resurrect their dormant offense. One thing they've done recently is put one of their better hitters this season in Rafaela in more high-profile spots.
Rafaela batted ninth in 11 of his first 14 starts of the season and he never escaped the bottom-third of the lineup during that span. Across his last six starts, however, Rafaela has not hit lower than fifth, and he's been in the two hole on four occasions (twice against lefties, twice against righties). The 25-year-old is hitting .291/.356/.506 in May and has tallied four of his five home runs and all three of his stolen bases this month.
Rafaela has been a much more patient hitter this season. His 48.3 percent swing rate is just a tick higher than the average rate, but it's more than 10 percentage points lower than his 2025 rate (58.9 percent) and even lower than his 2024 clip (61.9 percent). Rafaela is also sitting on a 34.1 percent chase rate, which is well above the league average but a huge improvement over his obscene 42.2 percent rate from 2025 and 46.6 percent rate from 2024. He's also sporting an above-average zone contact rate (83.3 percent) for the first time in his career. Though he'll probably still go through peaks and valleys, Rafaela's new approach could help avoid too many of the latter. Additionally, with Trevor Story (hernia) out indefinitely and Roman Anthony (finger) coming along slowly, Rafaela has a better chance to remain higher in the lineup.
Richie Palacios, 2B/OF, 
Tampa Bay Rays
Palacios made the Rays' Opening Day roster only because Gavin Lux (shoulder) got hurt. However, between his performance and Lux's recent setback, Palacios has an opportunity to write his name into the lineup at second base in ink.
Playing time for Palacios has been hit-or-miss this season. He started only 19 of his team's first 41 games, but over the last 11 tilts he's started nine times, including all nine against right-handed pitching. During that initial stretch, he regularly batted toward the bottom of the Rays' order. Across those last 11 contests he's hit fifth in each start, and in his last 13 games he's slashing .341/.396/.386 with 10 RBI and three stolen bases.
There are some things working against Palacios. One is that the left-handed batter hasn't made a single start versus a southpaw this season, so a strong-side platoon is the best he can hope for. He's also a poor defender at second base, which the Rays typically have less patience for than most teams. Where Palacios excels is slashing line drives. Since joining the Rays ahead of the 2024 season, among players with at least 450 plate appearances, Palacios ranks first in all of baseball with a 25.8 percent line-drive rate (per Fangraphs). The line drives and the good plate discipline give Palacios a chance to overcome his shortcomings in other areas.
Justin Foscue, 1B/2B, 
Texas Rangers
The Rangers' lineup is banged up right now, creating opportunities for some of the team's depth pieces. One of the beneficiaries has been a former first-round pick in Foscue.
Foscue had an impossibly bad start to his major-league career during his limited chances the last two years, going 3-for-51 with a 2:21 BB:K. He was hurt during spring training and was a relatively early roster cut, but Foscue earned a promotion in early May. After starting just three of the first nine games upon his call-up, Foscue has since been in the lineup for 11 consecutive contests, and he's slashed .300/.356/.450 with one home run and three doubles over that span. The right-handed-hitting Foscue has been up in the No. 2 spot in the lineup each of the last three times the Rangers have gone up against a lefty.
Contact remains an issue for Foscue, who has struck out at a rate of 28.6 percent in his first 17 tilts for Texas this season. However, he's done his best to make what contact he does make count, sporting a 50 percent hard-hit rate, 11.1 percent barrel rate and 91.4 mph average exit velocity. Foscue is also sitting on a 30.3 percent flyball rate and 27.3 percent pull-air rate, so he's got a profile built for power right now if he can keep it up. The 27-year-old is a good bet to move down in the batting order when Corey Seager (back) and Wyatt Langford (forearm) return. He could hold off Josh Smith (illness) for the second-base job, though, as Smith was really struggling before going on the IL and manager Skip Schumaker might prefer Smith in a utility role, anyway.
Trending Down
Lawrence Butler, OF, 
Sacramento Athletics
Butler managed to still go 20-20 last season despite clear regression in his overall performance. This season, that performance has bottomed out.
Among 202 players to tally at least 150 plate appearances, Butler ranks 201st in both wRC+ (43) and wOBA (.236) and 200th with a .506 OPS. He's 2-for-27 (both singles) at the plate across his last 30 trips to the dish, and he is without a home run or a stolen base in May. The Athletics have seemingly run out of patience with the left-handed hitter, giving him only two starts over their last nine games, and just one of those games has been against a lefty. In the two starts he did make, Butler batted eighth once and ninth once.
Butler has been a more disciplined hitter this season with a 23.3 percent chase rate and 11.6 percent walk rate, and his hard-hit rate (45.7 percent) and average exit velocity (90.4 mph) are right in line with his career marks. However, he's sporting a lowly 75.8 percent zone contact rate, 30.1 percent whiff rate, 27.7 percent strikeout rate and 6.5 percent barrel rate. It's hard to imagine the Athletics totally burying a guy with a $65.5 million contract, and Butler has been unlucky with a .211 BABIP and 57-point gap between his wOBA (.236) and xwOBA (.293). He's not playable right now, though.
Jackson Holliday, 2B, 
Baltimore Orioles
For five months last season, Holliday was the Orioles' leadoff hitter. Since returning from the injured list last week, he's batted ninth three times and hasn't hit higher than seventh. He's also been out of the lineup twice against a lefty, though that looks to be more about easing into action than being in a platoon.
My hunch is that Holliday will eventually get an opportunity to bat leadoff again, with everyone else moving down in the order. Adley Rutschman could be a candidate to move down a few spots, as he's cooled off considerably in May (.608 OPS) after a huge April (1.067 OPS). I'm not sure it happens anytime soon, however, especially with the Orioles playing better lately. Players returning from hamate bone surgery often exhibit a power outage, so it's encouraging that Holliday has already homered and is sporting a healthy 92.7 mph average exit velocity.
Steven Kwan, OF, Cleveland Guardians
The aforementioned Travis Bazzana has taken over as the Guardians' leadoff hitter, which means former leadoff man Kwan is no longer at the top of the batting order. Kwan has batted seventh in eight of his last nine starts, and in the other contest he hit eighth.
Kwan has been such a steady presence atop the Cleveland batting order that it's jarring to see him occupying a spot in the lower-third of the lineup. He batted leadoff in every one of his starts through May 15, but with a .201/.308/.258 batting line through his first 42 games, Kwan simply could no longer be trusted with prime real estate in the Guardians' lineup. Kwan has an 11:4 BB:K since moving down in the order, but he's only 7-for-30 with one extra-base hit (a double).
Kwan has always ranked low in terms of how hard he impacts the ball, but it's been another level of futility this season. The 28-year-old is sporting an 8.9 percent hard-hit rate and 82 mph average exit velocity, and both marks are the lowest in baseball among 262 batted-ball qualifiers. He's remained elite in terms of squared-up rate (99th percentile), however, and he's drawing more walks than ever. Kwan makes sense as a buy-low candidate, but he's always been more floor than ceiling, so I'm not sure how much ground he'll be able to make up after such a brutal start.
Ryan McMahon, 3B, 
New York Yankees
In the first two games after Jose Caballero returned from the injured list last week, McMahon started at third base. However, he has been absent from the lineup for the Yankees' last two tilts in what could be a preview of things to come.
McMahon is slashing an anemic .190/.255/.307 with a 31.3 percent strikeout rate this season and is hitting only .199/.284/.321 with a 32.5 percent strikeout rate across 104 games since joining the Yankees. With a 48.4 percent hard-hit rate, 8.9 percent barrel rate and 90.8 mph average exit velocity, McMahon is still hitting the ball plenty hard when he does make contact, but he's been fishing out of the strike zone way more than normal with a 30.6 percent chase rate.
The Yankees kept Anthony Volpe on the active roster when Caballero was activated, and it's been Volpe at shortstop for the last two contests, with Caballero handling third base against a righty and Amed Rosario playing there versus a lefty. I suspect McMahon won't be outright benched, at least not yet, with Caballero capable of bouncing around to multiple positions. However, having both Caballero and Volpe on the left side of their infield might be the Yankees' best course of action.
