Mound Musings: AL Central Draft Day Targets

Three divisions down, and three to go. This week, we move to the AL Central to take a look into the crystal ball and search for draft day bargains. I'll continue to throw out some names out for your consideration, covering one division each week. When the dust settles, we should be looking at Opening Day, and hopefully have a value-laden pitching staff heading into the 2019 season. We're past the halfway point, so let's look at the:

American League Central

Chicago White Sox – The young but maturing White Sox will hope their pitchers can move ahead this year as well. I'm optimistic about a couple, but not so much on others. To start, with injuries, timing can be everything. Carlos Rodon, missed part of 2017, and didn't pitch until June last year. Not surprisingly, his command was shaky, and his stamina was reduced. That puts the talented righty on schedule to take a significant step forward this year. I'm buying. Once the hype of fantasy circles, Lucas Giolito struggled again last season, displaying very inconsistent command. He has again reworked his mechanics, so perhaps he'll rediscover the abilities that lead to the hype. I'm cautiously optimistic, but I would need a Plan B. And, speaking of big hype guys, Michael Kopech made just four MLB starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He'll miss this year, but file him away in the "for the future" file. Reynaldo Lopez, was also very inconsistent with command of his secondary pitches, but he displayed some encouraging signs. I'm skeptical that he has a deep enough repertoire to enjoy long term success, but there is hope. The team added a couple veterans to perhaps help with the kids' development. Ivan Nova and Ervin Santana should give the Sox some innings and stability. Both are pretty much back of the rotation fantasy arms in deeper leagues at this point. They would like Manny Banuelos to claim a spot, but I don't see it. They also have Dylan Cease and Dane Dunning down on the farm, but they are dynasty pieces and unlikely to see much time, if any, in Chicago this season.

The bullpen has also added some veteran presence after a frustrating season last year. Alex Colome and Kelvin Herrera have closing/late inning experience. So, they will handle the late innings. I like Herrera a bit better to close, but he is recovering from September foot surgery, and is likely to be behind Colome early on. Lefty Jace Fry and Nate Jones should also see some high leverage work, but Jones is always a question mark with ongoing health issues. If you're looking for a sleeper, I still have some interest in Thyago Vieira, but he still has a lot to prove.

Recapping the White Sox:

The arm to own: Carlos Rodon
He's not for me: Ivan Nova
Best of the bullpen: Kelvin Herrera, but Colome may have a head start

Cleveland Indians – If you need a proven winner to lead your staff, over the past five seasons, very few have been more reliable than Corey Kluber. He pitches every five days, gets deep into games, maintains a very handy WHIP and piles up strikeouts (more than 200 each of those years). He's top-of-the-rotation worthy, but his price tag will reflect that. And there is some concern that his velocity declined late last year. We waited, sometimes patiently, but the light switch was finally flipped on for Trevor Bauer. He put it all together, and I think the best may be yet to come. The next arm on the staff actually offers similar upside, but Carlos Carrasco just can't find consistency. Don't get me wrong, he's a good pitcher, but his mechanics do occasionally get out of synch. Last season I recommended pursuing Mike Clevinger, and he paid dividends. I like him again this year, but he's no longer a sleeper and will command a fair price on draft day. The weak link on this very competent staff is Shane Bieber. Despite some popularity, his average stuff, and on and off command just don't provide much confidence for fantasy owners. Danny Salazar could eventually be a better option, but health issues (shoulder) have sidelined him for a long time. Best case scenario is a June return, but there have been setbacks already, and I wouldn't count on meaningful contributions from him. Their best pitching prospect, Triston McKenzie, is progressing and could see time in Cleveland later this season. He's worth keeping an eye on.

Brad Hand is now officially the primary closer. He's not ideally suited to close, but he is a competent end gamer and should see plenty of save chances behind this winning rotation. Unfortunately, there's not a clear pecking order behind Hand. Adam Cimber is an asset against right-handed hitters, and Oliver Perez fits against lefties. Veterans Tyler Clippard and Dan Otero have late-inning experience, but each have had some struggles of late. One guy to potentially watch is Chih-Wei Hu, who was acquired from Tampa Bay in the offseason and perhaps can step in and contribute. This bullpen has all the makings of a mix-and-match collection and will be difficult to count on for holds.

Recapping the Indians:

The arm to own: Trevor Bauer
He's not for me: Shane Bieber
Best of the bullpen: Brad Hand

Detroit Tigers – In what appears to be a common thread in the AL Central, the Tigers have a rotation full of guys who might help your fantasy team, but also have the potential to hurt you. A couple years ago, Michael Fulmer was the toast of Detroit, but he has regressed, as the league may be figuring him out, and he has a rather long list of nagging injuries He's still young and could be a boost to your rotation if he gets it back together, but I need a hefty discount on draft day. Similarly, Jordan Zimmermann was once a hot commodity in fantasy leagues. However, chronic neck and back issues have resulted in declining production. I will say I was encouraged at times last year, and I might be tempted to throw a dollar or two at him this season. Matt Boyd, is still a lefty with lefty inconsistency, but he is displaying better command as he matures. I don't think he should be near the top of your rotation, but he's getting close to being usable when he has things in synch. Once upon a time, Matt Moore was near the top of my top prospects list. That seems like a very long time ago. I can't recommend him, but if you have deep rosters, take a flyer. Someday, some team could get him on track. They also added Tyson Ross who missed most of 2016 and 2017, and looked rusty throughout most of last season. It's possible he could have a bounce-back year given the injury return timeline mentioned above. Daniel Norris could be in line for better days, too, but he's going to need to win a spot, and I consider him a longshot at best. The best hopes for Tigers' fans are to be found down on the farm. Matt Manning, Casey Mize and Franklin Perez are all legitimate pitching prospects. I like Manning slightly better than the other two, especially since Perez has experienced some shoulder issues, but all three are worthy of consideration in keeper/dynasty formats.

Shane Greene is a set-up guy in closer's clothing. Despite a nasty 5.12 ERA helped by allowing 12 homeruns in 63 innings, he contributed 32 saves to his fantasy owners. You get the saves, but you pay dearly for them in ERA and WHIP. He'll start the season as their everyday closer again, and he'll likely contribute some saves again. To be honest, there's not much to challenge him. Joe Jimenez remains the "Tigers' closer of the future," but he will need to pitch well over a period of time to challenge Greene. I think it will happen sometime this season. Other than Jimenez, the lukewarm choices for late-inning work are probably Buck Farmer and Blaine Hardy.

Recapping the Tigers:

The arm to own: Maybe Jordan Zimmermann but grab one of the kids
He's not for me: Michael Fulmer unless he comes very cheap
Best of the bullpen: Joe Jimenez

Kansas City Royals – I'm afraid when Jakob Junis and Danny Duffy are the staff leaders, there's not any great level of optimism. Duffy can be a decent starter when he's healthy and on track, but he has had ongoing injury issues (an oblique, minor elbow surgery a couple years ago and, most recently, shoulder tendinitis). He doesn't always stay as focused as I would like, and, with all the injuries, that gets him scratched from my list. Junis, despite having pretty pedestrian stuff other than a quality slider, is arguably the best the Royals have to offer. However, one quality pitch is unlikely to provide positive results start after start. I'll pass on him, too. I have always liked Ian Kennedy, mostly because he does tend to stay on point. However, Kennedy remains haunted by the long ball (118 of them over the last four seasons). When in a groove he can be decent, but he's really a streaming option rather than an everyday member of a fantasy rotation. The one member of the staff I do think could potentially step up this season is Brad Keller. The Rule-5 pick was pretty effective last season and wouldn't need to improve much to step to the head of the class in Kansas City. He's a back-of-the-rotation option for fantasy teams. The last spot on the rotation, at least early on, will likely be filled by Jorge Lopez, with Jesse Hahn expected to be out until at least June as he recovers from elbow surgery, and the suspended Eric Skoglund unavailable until late July. I'll pass on all of them, so no need to hurry back, guys.

The Kansas City bullpen isn't all that exciting either. They added Brad Boxberger over the winter. That's a step up from last year's second half closer, Wily Peralta, but don't read that as an enthusiastic endorsement. Peralta returns as the likely primary set up guy, with Kevin McCarthy and southpaws Tim Hill and Jake Diekman hoping to get any leads into the late innings. Boxberger should have considerable job security, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him or Peralta dealt during the season. If that happens, look for Josh Staumont to arrive as a potential closer. He has a huge arm but still lacks command, and a deep repertoire. The Royals converted him to relief work last season, and the move certainly made an immediate difference.

Recapping the Royals:

The arm to own: Brad Keller
He's not for me: Danny Duffy
Best of the bullpen: Brad Boxberger but monitor Josh Staumont

Minnesota Twins – The Twins have a staff with considerable upside, albeit there are some questions as to whether that upside will be achieved. After he struggled in 2016, Jose Berrios was written off by some fantasy owners, but the shrewd ones stayed the course and reaped rewards the past couple of years. He's now the young leader of the band, but I think there is still some growth to come. I don't believe he'll be a fantasy No. 1, but a solid two is possible. Maybe the biggest surprise in the rotation is Kyle Gibson. He looked pretty ordinary, but then found a little more zip on his fastball. I'm still staying away, but he now looks like he can hold his own in a fantasy rotation. Another of the upside crowd is Jake Odorizzi. His ERA and WHIP were both pretty pedestrian last season, and he needs to continue honing his command, but indications are that may be transpiring. His strikeout rate climbed and the home runs dropped – potential signs of better things ahead. Remember when Michael Pineda arrived in Seattle back in 2011? Or his first season for the Yankees after missing two years with a shoulder injury? Wow! He's missed the last 18 months following Tommy John surgery and then a torn meniscus. Is he still that "wow" guy? It's very hard to say, but he might be worth a shot if the price is right. Lefty Martin Perez came over from Texas and slots into the fifth spot. He was once highly regarded but he never justified the hype. I'm skeptical, but he does fit the "changes in latitudes" angle pretty well. Adalberto Mejia, and perhaps Kohl Stewart, should also collect some innings, as the team will surely monitor Pineda's workload very closely. Unfortunately, I don't see either being a fantasy asset. I once thought highly of Stewart, but he hasn't really progressed as I had hoped.

Right now, the Twins' bullpen displays all the signs of being a closer by committee scenario. No one stands out, none of the candidates have significant closing experience, and there is a mix of righties and lefties available for the right matchups. That said. I believe someone will step up. I see five contenders for the gig. I'm going to take two out of that mix and plug them into high leverage, key nonclosing spots. Addison Reed, and, probably the best arm in their pen, lefty Taylor Rogers are the ideal set-up tandem, leaving the bridge-building duties to righties Trevor Hildenberger and Blake Parker. Will the last man standing please take the ninth inning? That would be Trevor May who returned from Tommy John surgery and enjoyed a strong season last year.

Recapping the Twins:

The arm to own: Jose Berrios
He's not for me: Kyle Gibson
Best of the bullpen: Trevor May but keep an eye on Taylor Rogers

Next week we'll look at the NL West.