This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Bets and Props for Saturday, June 24
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We'll focus on an NL showdown involving two of the hottest teams in baseball and a marquee interleague matchup for our two Saturday bets.
Atlanta Braves at Cincinnati Reds
The Braves ran into the Reds' seemingly never-ending hot streak Friday night and blew an early 5-0 lead to fall 11-10, and a similar offensive showcase could be in the offing Saturday. Atlanta gets a crack at the returning Graham Ashcraft, who surrendered 10 earned runs to the Brewers in his last start not shortened by injury and who's pitched to a .288 xBA and allowed a 40.4 percent hard-hit rate. In addition to his meltdown versus Milwaukee, Ashcraft has allowed at least seven runs in three other outings, and Atlanta checks in averaging an MLB-high 3.5 runs per first 5 innings per road game.
The Reds are playing with supreme confidence after 12 consecutive wins, and the old adage about the ball seeming especially large to their hitters likely applies. Cincinnati boasts a .362 wOBA and 17.0 wRAA during its winning streak, and the Reds also sport a .285 average and .359 wOBA against left-handers in the last month of play. The latter could spell some trouble for Braves starter Jared Shuster, whose .344 xwOBA, 4.93 xERA and 41.1 percent hard-hit rate allowed imply his 4-2 mark may at least partly be the result of some good fortune and run support.
The game carries a Coors-like 11.5-run projected total, and although that could prove to be a bit inflated, I can certainly see some offense when two of the hottest hitting teams in baseball get together in a daytime affair.
MLB Best Bets for Braves at Reds
- Over 6.5 total runs - 1st 5 innings (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Ronald Acuna Over 2.5 Hits + Runs +RBI (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers
The Astros' Ronel Blanco has displayed some of the inconsistencies typical of a young pitcher, and although his 4.66 ERA is borderline serviceable, the rest of his statistical profile is littered with foreboding metrics. The right-hander's 1.69 WHIP, which is partly the byproduct of a 5.0 BB/9, is certainly one. Blanco also sports a 1.9 HR/9, and he's also conceded an 11.9 percent barrel rate, .270 xBA and 5.84 xERA.
Blanco only has a modest 15-inning road sample thus far in his career, but he's pitched to a 7.20 ERA, 1.87 WHIP and 2.4 HR/9 in that split. The right-hander has especially struggled in same-handed matchups when traveling this season, surrendering a .296 average, .886 OPS, 2.6 HR/9 and .382 wOBA in the sample.
The Dodgers rank in the top 10 in baseball with 3.14 runs per first 5 innings per home game, and L.A. has a solid 5-run projected total for the game as of early Saturday. As such, I'm in the camp of the two wagers listed below.
MLB Best Bets for Astros at Dodgers
- Dodgers -0.5 - 1st 5 innings - 1st 5 innings (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Ronel Blanco 1st Earned Run allowed (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Saturday MLB Best Bets Recap
- Braves-Reds Over 6.5 total runs - 1st 5 innings (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Ronald Acuna Over 2.5 Hits + Runs +RBI (-115 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Dodgers -0.5 - 1st 5 innings - 1st 5 innings (-145 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Ronel Blanco 1st Earned Run allowed (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck