This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Playoff Picks for Tuesday, October 3
Season: 106-130-1 -52.94 units
Prior Article:3-1 +1.16 units
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Texas Rangers 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
The Rangers went from winning the AL West, a bye, and home field advantage to having to go on the road to face the Rays. They were just 18-24 in their last 42 games hitting .234. averaging 4.3 runs per game on the road. While the offense was reasonable, the pitching really starting to implode with a 5.13 ERA, 1.43 WHIP.
The Rays have found their early season success again going 34-19 the last two months and 16-9 at home. Tyler Glasnow has been much better at home versus on the road historically and this season with 10 starts, 56.2 innings, 83 strikeouts, 17 balls, 3.18 ERA, and a 0.88 WHIP.
The Rays have destroyed left-handed pitching at home all season and will roll out eight right-handed hitters against left-hander Jordan Montgomery. The Rays were #1 in wRC+ splits of home against left-handed pitching at 137. They have a 14-5 record against left-handed starters at home with 6.0 runs against 4.2 allowed. The majority of these games have gone way over the total with the last 7 games all over 7 runs or higher.
On the flip side, Jordan Montgomery has been lights out in his last 4 starts going 27 innings with a 0.67 ERA, 0.89 WHIP. I can see Montgomery having success in this spot, but allowing a couple of home runs to the big right-handed Rays hitters.
But this game and series will be won by the Rays home-field advantage and significant bullpen edge. Once this game gets into innings 6-9, the Rays should be able to dominate.
While I like the Rays to score and win this game, I do not see the value in the money line or laying -1.5 runs, so will look at a team total and some Rays hitter props.
MLB Best Bets for Rangers at Rays
- Rays OVER 3.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -140)
- Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 homerun for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +560)
- Randy Arozarena OVER 0.5 homerun for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +470)
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Toronto Blue Jays 
at Minnesota Twins 
This series and game is the toughest to predict as both teams are close to even. The Twins have strong starting pitching and they also lead the league in strikeouts on the hitting side. This will result in some very low scoring games especially in this game with Kevin Gausman versus Pablo Lopez.
Gausman has hit his recorded outs threshold (15.5) in 11 out of 15 road starts.
The Twins also have the black cloud of their playoff woes going 0-15 in their last 15 games.
So I will avoid picking a side in this game and look at the game being lower scoring with the Jays leaning on Gausman heavily.
MLB Best Bets Blue Jays at Twins
- Blue Jays/Twins UNDER 7.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -105)
- Kevin Gausman OVER 15.5 outs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -145)
Arizona Diamondbacks 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
In the biggest pitching mismatch on the slate, we get Corbin Burnes against Brandon Pfaadt and the Brewers have been trending heavily towards UNDERS in the last month going 10-2 at home in their last 12.
Both teams offenses could struggle in this spot, and I think the total of 8 gets a little bump from Pfaadt, which only helps us.
MLB Best Bets Diamondbacks at Brewers
- Dbacks/Brewers UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
Miami Marlins 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
Zack Wheeler is a workhouse especially in the playoffs and the Marlins are a much different team on the road versus at home.
Jesus Luzardo has pitched well against the Phillies, but the Phillies are one of the best split hitting teams at home against right-handed pitching. Much like the Rays/Rangers, the Phillies will end up getting to the Marlins bullpen and taking the series.
Most of the team totals on the Phillies came in at 3.5 but with high juice, so I shopped around to find plus money at 4.5. I think they hit at least 2 homeruns in this game which will put them over their team total.
While I like the Phillies in the game, they have played too many 1 run games recently to take the run line and the juice on the money line was too high, but the F5 number came in reasonable.
MLB Best Bets Marlins at Phillies
- Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (BetMGM +125)
- Phillies -0.5 runs for 0.5 unit F5 (DraftKings -105)
MLB Best Bets Recap
- Rays OVER 3.5 runs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -140)
- Isaac Paredes OVER 0.5 homerun for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +560)
- Randy Arozarena OVER 0.5 homerun for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +470)
- Blue Jays/Twins UNDER 7.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -105)
- Kevin Gausman OVER 15.5 outs for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -145)
- Dbacks/Brewers UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
- Phillies OVER 4.5 runs for 0.5 unit (BetMGM +125)
- Phillies -0.5 runs for 0.5 unit F5 (DraftKings -105)
