This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Previous article 4-5 +0.70
Season 34-30 +14.6
Mixed bag of results on Tuesday night as it looked like it was going to be a big night, but I got crushed on the totals in the Twins/Orioles and Brewers/Reds. The takeaway is to look at the team run totals vs. the overall game totals. Both the Orioles and Reds went under which is what I expected.
The problem with team run totals is that the oddsmakers have smartened up to them and making more of them 2.5 runs, which is a tough number to play at. If I see 3 or 3.5 I usually like to grab the unders.
I can not stress enough the importance of shopping around for the best numbers on totals right now. That half run you can gain will be everything towards being profitable vs. not. I have found FanDuel to be the best site for team run totals as they usually land on a whole number and have lower juice.
With a split slate, I will look at the evening games only.
Minnesota Twins 
vs. Baltimore Orioles 
7:05 pm EDT
I went with the Twins last night and will come back again tonight with Kyle Bradish making the second start of his career. The Twins are 5th in run differential vs. the Orioles, who are 27th. Minnesota is on an 11-1 run in their last 12 games while the Orioles are 2-7 in their last 9. The Orioles have allowed 4.25 runs per game on the season making the over 4 runs on the Twins an attractive play, but I can see this being a 4-2, 5-2 type of game.
Best Bet #1 for Twins-Orioles: Twins -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (PointsBet +120)
Best Bet #2 for Twins-Orioles: – Twins over 4 runs for 1.1 RW buck (FanDuel -110)
Los Angeles Angels 
vs. Boston Red Sox 
7:10 pm EDT
Reid Detmers vs. Garrett Whitlock
Yesterday paid off in taking the overreaction on the Red Sox being home dogs as they put up a 4-0 win. I don't have enough confidence coming back to take them again tonight as home favorites. But I still like the under play as the Red Sox bats have not got going yet. Whitlock has been great so far, and I like Detmers even though the 5-plus ERA isn't attractive, but he does have a 1.10 WHIP.
I just think we are getting a total that is more indicative of 2021 vs. 2022 with the 8.5. I would have it playable down to 8 if we see a line move which I do expect.
Best MLB Bet for Angels-Red Sox: Under 8.5 runs for 1.15 RW buck (DraftKings -115)
Cincinnati Reds 
vs. Milwaukee Brewers 7:40 pm EDT
Vladimir Gutierrez vs. Freddy Peralta
Rinse and Repeat – go against the Reds every game. The line on this game has shifted big time from -220 to -295. I would expect the -275 to -300 range to be the norm on Reds games moving forward. The Reds will be without Jonathan India and Joey Votto. Great spot for Freddy Peralta to rack up 10 strikeouts. Note – I did have the under 2.5 on the Reds, but Peralta can sometimes outpitch himself and give up too many walks.
MLB Best Bet #1 for Reds-Brewers: Brewers -1.5 runs for 1.25 RW buck (PointsBet -125)
MLB Best Bet #2 for Reds-Brewers: Peralta over 6.5 strikeouts for 1.02 RW buck (FanDuel -102)
Bonus MLB Prop – Peralta over 10 strikeouts for 0.1 RW buck to win 7.5 (FanDuel +750)
Washington Nationals 
at Colorado Rockies 
8:40 pm EDT
Patrick Corbin vs. Austin Gomber
The Nationals crushed the Rockies last night 10-2 which can happen, but with Patrick Corbin going today I have to come back with the Rockies at home given their strong history.
MLB Best Bet for Nationals-Rockies: Rockies -1.5 runs for 1 RW buck (DraftKings +130)
MLB Best Bet for Nationals-Rockies – Rockies over 5.5 runs for 1.04 RW buck (FanDuel -104)
MLB Parlay 1: Three-Team Parlay – Twins, Brewers, Rockies (all -1.5 run line)
for 0.1 RW buck to win 7.9 (FanDuel)
MLB Parlay 2: Four-Team Parlay – Rockies o5.5, Peralta o7 strikeouts, Angels/Red Sox under 8.5, Twins o4
for 0.1 RW buck to win 12.8 (FanDuel)
Before you place your bets, be sure to use all of RotoWire's MLB resources, like our MLB Lineups page, MLB Weather page, and the best batter vs. pitcher stats.
