A busy 13-game main slate awaits Friday evening as we emerge from the All-Star break, getting underway at 7:05 p.m. EDT. It's imperative you confirm starting pitching, as it can be shuffled in the first game back, but given what's listed, there's no shortage of options; four arms are priced in five-figures and seven more come in at $9,000 or greater.
Despite the volume of high-end arms, this looks like an offensive slate. Only two games have run totals under 8.0, and four sit in double-digits, led by Rockies - Reds (12.0) in Coors Field. The Braves (-215) lead the way as favorites, followed not closely by the Mariners (-156) and Brewers (-152). Wind looks to be in hitters' favor in Chicago and Kansas City.
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Pitching
Troy Melton, DET at LAA ($10,000): As usual, you're not wrong for any payup option. I gravitate toward Melton simply because I believe most won't. He went into the break with four-straight quality starts, allowing just two runs, striking out 27 in 23.1 innings. The Angels bring a targetable 24.8 percent K rate against righties.
Landen Roupp, SF at SEA ($8,900): I personally have some interest in Gerrit Cole ($8,500), as no one will consider him against the Dodgers, but Roupp seems to have the safer floor in a favorable ballpark. Seattle hasn't been awful against righies with a 106 wRC+, but also a 23.0 percent K rate. Loupp has three quality starts in his last four.
Jared Jones, PIT at CLE ($7,200): Jones brings a good bit of upside for this low price. He fanned eight in his last start and has allowed one or no runs in three of his last four outings. The potential limitation is innings, having worked five or more just twice in his eight starts since returning from a torn UCL, but the stuff is clearly back to prior form. Cleveland has just a 95 wRC+ off righties with a .146 ISO. Jones is far cheaper than his adversary in a low 7.5 run expectancy matchup.
Top Targets
We obviously want shares of the Reds and Rockies. JJ Bleday ($3,500) stands out on the Cincinnati side, having homered in two of his last three and not seeing a huge Coors Field price increase. He also leads the Reds with a .376 wOBA off righties. On the other side, Brady Singer is allowing a .422 wOBA to lefties on the road, giving us some potential value in Mickey Moniak ($3,300) and/or Jake McCarthy ($3,200) atop the Rockies order.
Matt Olson ($3,800) homered five times in his last 10, but they came in just three games, making him a high ceiling, low floor consideration. He's 4-for-10 with a long ball off Cal Quantril.
Bargain Bats
Athletics - Nationals is a bit of a conundrum; we know the ballpark screams usage, but be it injuries or matchups, there aren't clear targets. Jacob Wilson ($2,900) can be a decent punt play from the A's; he's a likely leadoff hitter who his .318 in his last 22 ABs. Dylan Crews ($2,900) was ice cold going into the break, but carries a .402 wOBA and 156 wRC+ off lefties into Friday.
Bailey Ober is allowing a .439 wOBA and 59.2 percent fly ball rate to lefties on the road. With outbound winds, that spells trouble. If you're not paying for Pete Crow-Armstrong, consider Michael Busch ($3,100) or Ian Happ ($3,300)
Stack to Consider
Padres at Seth Lugo (Royals): Fernando Tatis ($3,200), Jackson Merrill ($3,000), Manny Machado ($3,000)
I seemingly can't quit this lineup stack as they remain priced so favorabily. Lugo has allowed has allowed eight homers over his last 19.1 innings and we've got outbound winds here, resulting in a double-digit run total. Tatis went into the break terribly, but Machado quietly hit .313 with two homers across his last 32 at bats. Merrill gives us a third top of the order piece.
Cardinals at Merrill Kelly (Diamondbacks): JJ Wetherholt ($3,400), Alec Burleson ($3,400), Ivan Herrera ($3,300)
Kelly has been horrific at home, allowing a 7.44 ERA, 10 homers in 32.2 innings, a .449 wOBA to lefties and .406 wOBA to righties, opening up the entire Cardinals lineup for consideration. We can somewhat fade Jordan Walker ($4,100) and target these three in front of him for cheaper. Burleson has a team-high .402 wOBA, 158 wRC+ and .244 ISO off righties, making him a nice stand alone play.
