MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, July 17
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Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Yankees Best Bets and Predictions
Friday's showdown between the New York Yankees and Los Angeles Dodgers is one of the marquee matchups on the MLB betting slate, and the value lies with the Yankees moneyline (-109). While oddsmakers have this game priced as virtually a pick'em, New York owns the edge on the mound, and Yankee Stadium could expose one of the Dodgers' biggest weaknesses.
The Dodgers enter the series with the National League's best record at 61-36 and have been outstanding away from home, going 30-17 on the road. The Yankees, meanwhile, sit at 54-42 and have been solid in the Bronx with a 23-20 home record. Despite Los Angeles' superior overall record, this matchup is much more favorable for New York than the standings suggest.
The biggest advantage belongs to the Yankees in the starting pitching matchup. Gerrit Cole has once again performed like an ace, carrying a 4.04 ERA and 1.20 WHIP into Friday's start while consistently giving New York a chance to win against elite competition. The Dodgers counter with Roki Sasaki, whose first season in the majors has been filled with growing pains. Sasaki is 3-5 with a 5.33 ERA and 1.36 WHIP, and his biggest issue has been keeping the ball in the park.
That weakness could become even more pronounced at Yankee Stadium. Sasaki has surrendered 2.1 home runs per nine innings, a dangerous profile against a Yankees lineup built around left-handed power. The short right-field porch gives hitters like Cody Bellinger and Ben Rice an opportunity to capitalize if Sasaki leaves pitches up in the zone. Against a pitcher allowing that many home runs, one swing can quickly change the complexion of the game.
The betting market also favors a competitive, offense-friendly contest with the total sitting at 9.5 runs. While Los Angeles is capable of putting runs on the board, New York's advantage with Cole on the mound makes the affordable -109 moneyline the preferred betting option over laying a run line in what projects to be a tightly contested matchup.
When evaluating Friday's MLB betting picks, this game comes down to the starting pitchers. Cole gives the Yankees the more reliable arm, and Sasaki's home-run issues create a difficult matchup in one of baseball's most hitter-friendly parks for left-handed power. At nearly even money, New York offers one of the best values on the board.
Best Bet: Yankees ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
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Washington Nationals at Athletics Best Bets and Prediction
The Washington Nationals enter Friday's matchup against the Athletics as one of the best values on the MLB betting slate, and the numbers point toward backing Nationals -1.5 runs (+125) instead of laying the -135 moneyline. With the total set at 10.5 runs, this is the type of game where a multi-run victory becomes more likely, making the run line the preferred betting angle.
Washington begins the second half at 48-49, but its road performance tells a much different story. The Nationals are an impressive 28-18 away from home, one of the stronger road marks in the National League. Oakland, meanwhile, has struggled to protect its home field, posting a 19-28 record in Sacramento, where opponents have consistently taken advantage of a pitching staff that has unraveled over the past few weeks.
The Athletics have been one of baseball's coldest teams entering the second half. Oakland has lost 19 of its last 24 games and is just 5-19 during that stretch. Even more concerning, the Athletics have dropped nine of their last 10 games, getting outscored by 41 runs while their pitching staff has posted a staggering 7.07 ERA over those 10 contests. They are also 3-9 in their last 12 home games, making it difficult to trust them against a Nationals club that has consistently played well on the road.
Washington hands the ball to Cade Cavalli, who has continued to develop into a dependable starter. His ability to generate strikeouts and limit hard contact gives the Nationals a clear edge over rookie left-hander Gage Jump, who has shown promise but now faces a Washington lineup capable of putting pressure on opposing pitchers from the first inning. If the Nationals reach the Athletics' bullpen early, the advantage only grows given Oakland's recent pitching struggles.
One of the biggest reasons this projects as one of the best MLB betting picks today is the expected offensive environment. Oddsmakers have installed a 10.5-run total, signaling plenty of scoring opportunities. In games with elevated totals, favorites are more likely to separate by multiple runs than in lower-scoring contests. That trend becomes even stronger at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, a hitter-friendly venue where crooked numbers can develop quickly. Rather than paying -135 on the moneyline, taking Washington -1.5 runs at +125 provides considerably more value.
Everything lines up in Washington's favor entering Friday. The Nationals have been one of baseball's better road teams, while the Athletics continue to spiral with one of the league's worst recent pitching staffs. Add in the high projected run total and favorable run-line price, and this stands out as one of the strongest MLB predictions and betting picks on Friday's schedule.
Best Bet: Nationals -1.5 runs for 1 unit (The Score +125)
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels Best Bets and Predictions
The Detroit Tigers head into Friday's matchup against the Los Angeles Angels playing some of their best baseball of the season, and they offer one of the strongest values on the MLB betting slate. With Detroit listed as a modest -109 moneyline favorite, the best betting angle is backing the Tigers to continue their recent surge against an Angels club that has struggled to gain traction for more than a month.
Detroit enters the second half at 44-52, but its recent play suggests the Tigers are far better than their overall record indicates. Detroit has won seven of its last 10 games, 14 of its last 22, and has outscored opponents by 17 runs over the past 10 contests. The Tigers have received quality pitching, timely hitting and strong bullpen work during this stretch, allowing them to consistently win close games while also pulling away when opportunities arise.
The Angels, meanwhile, continue to trend in the opposite direction. Los Angeles is just 38-59 overall and has dropped eight of its last 10 games, getting outscored by 10 runs during that span. The struggles extend beyond the recent skid, as the Angels are just 15-23 over their last 38 games, showing little consistency on either side of the ball. Even at home, Los Angeles has been unable to establish an advantage, posting just a 21-25 record.
The pitching matchup also favors Detroit. Troy Melton has emerged as one of the Tigers' biggest bright spots, carrying a dominant 1.82 ERA and 0.81 WHIP into Friday's start. His ability to limit baserunners and pitch efficiently gives Detroit a clear edge over Reid Detmers, whose electric arm has been offset by inconsistency throughout the season. When Detmers loses command early in games, opponents have been able to string together quality at-bats and force the Angels into their bullpen sooner than they'd like.
While the Tigers are available at +150 on the run line, the -109 moneyline offers the better balance of value and safety. With the total sitting at 8.5 runs, oddsmakers are projecting a relatively competitive, lower-scoring game where simply backing the superior team to win is the more attractive approach than asking for a multi-run victory.
Detroit owns the edge in current form, starting pitching and overall momentum entering the second half. Combined with the Angels' prolonged struggles, this matchup stands out as one of the best MLB predictions and betting picks on Friday's schedule.
Best Bet: Tigers ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports -109)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Yankees ML for 1 unit (BetMGM -105)
- Nationals -1.5 runs for 1 unit (The Score +125)
- Tigers ML for 1 unit (Circa Sports -109)
