Expert MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, July 16
MLB 2026 betting record: 22-36-1, -15.22 units
Fresh off hosting the MLB All-Star Game, the second half of the baseball season kicks off in Philadelphia on Thursday.
In the lone game of the day, the Phillies host the last-place New York Mets. I'm expecting offense and the underdog to prevail as part of my three predictions for tonight's matchup between the National League East rivals.
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New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Predictions and Best Bets
Carson Benge over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-110 BetMGM)
Phillies starter Aaron Nola has thrown well in back-to-back outings this month but still enters his first start out of the all-star break with considerable risk. Nola has a 6.81 ERA in eight starts at home, which is an excellent hitting venue that especially plays up to left-handed batters.
This is the second consecutive season that lefty hitters are slugging north of .500 off Nola, who enters with the worst HR/9 rate of his career and the highest mark in the NL. He has allowed multiple homers in seven outings, which includes a start vs. the Mets in June. There's likely to be smoke-filled air due to the Canadian wildfires, but with wind blowing out to right field, it should make for strong hitting conditions.
Benge was enjoying his best hitting month of the season before the break, slashing .317/.404/.512 in July. Following a difficult April for the rookie outfielder, Benge has posted a strong .289 average and .353 on-base percentage (just shy of an .800 OPS) since May 1. After a 1.5-month-long stint in the leadoff spot, Benge has primarily hit No. 4 or 5 in the Mets' order this month, putting him in a great run-producing spot behind the likes of Juan Soto, Francisco Lindor and Bo Bichette.
Benge will enjoy a platoon advantage vs. Nola, and his ability to hit plus spot in the order makes him a worthwhile target tonight. Over the last three seasons, Citizens Bank Park has been the No. 2 offensive environment for left-handed batters and the top home run-hitting venue (per Baseball Savant).
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Over 9.5 runs (-109 DraftKings)
The 23-year-old Benge is my target because of the value on his combo prop, but I expect more of New York's offense to perform.
New York is probably the most disappointing team in baseball this season, posting a 92 wRC+ and second-worst first-half record in the NL. But the Mets have shown some signs of life offensively, bringing that number up to a solid 107 since Lindor made his return to the lineup on June 24.
Their four best hitters over that stretch are all left-handed batters with a 115 wRC+, creating what should be a difficult matchup for Nola. And based on the environment, I don't expect the Mets to be the only team to contribute at the plate tonight. The Phillies hit well at home, ranking seventh in MLB in homers and fourth in ISO, delivering power in their hitter-friendly park.
Though both groups will be coming in with fresh arms, bullpens haven't been a strength of either team in recent weeks. The clubs have identical 5.21 ERAs since June 1 with elevated home run rates. In a home run-hitting park, there's an excellent chance balls will be flying out tonight, upping the chances of runs piling up.
The over on this total has cleared in 10 of Nola's 19 starts, including five of his last seven outings.
Mets to win (+110 BetMGM)
Lastly, I think the Mets are worth backing as a plus-money underdog and have the starting pitching advantage with Christian Scott on the mound. And, as mentioned, their offense has been more than competent of late. Even stretching back to the start of June, New York ranks seventh in homers and has an above-average offense (per wRC+).
Scott didn't work deep but threw well vs. the Phillies when he got them in June, a 6-2 New York win. He's been a solid rotation piece, compiling a 3.17 ERA and a well-above-average strikeout rate that sits in the 83rd percentile. New York has gone 9-3 in Scott's 12 starts.
While these are all 1-unit single bets for me, another way you could play this is to combo it up in an SGP wager at odds around +400 at DraftKings.
MLB Picks Recap
- Carson Benge over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-110 BetMGM)
- Over 9.5 runs (-109 DraftKings)
- Mets to win (+110 BetMGM)
