Closer Carousel: Trade Deadline Preview

Welcome to a special All-Star break edition of the Closer Carousel. 

With the pause in the action, it's time to look ahead at the trade deadline, an event which is sure to shake up the closer market. Every year, contenders displace their closers by bringing in better options, while relievers who have been locked into the ninth inning for four months on a struggling team suddenly find themselves pitching in a setup role for a new club.

For this edition of the Closer Carousel, I'll keep the usual "Who Earned Saves Last Week" section for the beginning of the article as well as the usual look at the RotoWire Closer Grid at the end, but I've replaced the middle sections with a discussion of which closers are most at risk of losing their jobs at the deadline.

Who Earned Saves Last Week?

*A pitcher can earn a blown save if he enters in what is technically a save situation prior to the ninth inning and blows the lead. For fantasy purposes, we don't really care about blown saves where a reliever was clearly being used as a setup man and coughed up the lead. What matters to us is when a reliever was genuinely being given a chance to save the game but blew it. Therefore, for the purposes of this article, I'm only going to report blown saves of that variety. 

Closers I'm Worried About: Trade Deadline Edition

Category 1: Closers whose teams could acquire someone to take their job

Some very good closers could become available at the deadline, including Aroldis Chapman (something which now looks less likely following Boston's nine-game winning streak) and Mason Miller (who will always be in trade rumors as long as A.J. Preller is his general manager). Miller is indisputably the best reliever in baseball, so if he truly is on the block, then every single established closer on a contending team should feel at least a little worried about his future.

That means every single closer right now is probably at minimum a 1.5 out of 5 on the worry-o-meter. Here are the relievers on contending teams who I'd consider to be at least a 2 out of 5 on that scale. 

Clayton Beeter, Nationals: I don't expect a young Nationals team that's merely on the fringes of the playoff race (48-49, 4.0 games back of the third wild-card spot) to go all-in at the deadline. But if they're at all willing to buy, the bullpen is clearly a big need. It won't take much to find someone better than the team's current saves leader, Beeter, whose 3.62 ERA comes with a 4.15 SIERA. Unless a losing streak in the next two weeks turns the Nationals into clear sellers, I expect Beeter to spend the last two months of the year in a setup role.
Worry-o-meter: 5 

Gregory Soto, Pirates: Soto had a dominant stretch earlier in the season but has struggled recently, with a 6.86 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over his last 20 outings. The Pirates could merely elect to go with a committee and push Soto behind the likes of Mason Montgomery and Dennis Santana on the depth chart, but if they really want to build a winner around Paul Skenes, acquiring a reliable ninth-inning arm seems like an obvious way to improve the roster.
Worry-o-meter: 4 

Pete Fairbanks, Marlins: The Marlins currently occupy the third wild-card spot in the National League despite the fact that they've gotten a 6.83 ERA from their closer Fairbanks, who was signed to a one-year, $13 million deal in December. That's a lot of money for a team with the Marlins' payroll, but without a long-term commitment, they won't lose much by moving him to a setup role for the final two months. Fairbanks does have a much better 3.41 SIERA, however, and it's hard to see the Marlins going all-in at the deadline with a roster which should be right at the start of its contention window, so it's perhaps more likely that the Marlins add another high-leverage arm for the seventh or eighth inning but decline to add anyone who could displace Fairbanks.
Worry-o-meter: 3 

Grant Taylor, White Sox: Unlike most of the pitchers in this section, Taylor is pitching very well this season, with a 2.79 ERA and a 33.8 percent strikeout rate. But while he's seemingly moved to the top of the White Sox's closer committee, the team's reluctance to use him in a true closer role despite his talent and performance implies that they might consider buying a proven closer at the deadline and moving Taylor back to a high-leverage, multi-inning role earlier in games. That's seemingly what they tried to do over the offseason by signing Seranthony Dominguez, but he's fallen out of favor with his 4.41 ERA and hasn't saved a game in over a month. I doubt the White Sox will go all-in at the deadline with a young roster that got competitive a year or two before it was expected to, but the team seems to actively not want to use Taylor as a true closer, so they might not have to shop at the top of the market to displace him from the ninth inning.
Worry-o-meter: 3 

Kenley Jansen, Tigers: Jansen hasn't given the Tigers what they hoped for when they signed him to a one-year deal (with a club option) back in December, as his 4.56 ERA sits right in line with his 4.35 SIERA and 4.71 xFIP. While the Tigers are eight games under .500, they're just 3.5 games back of the final wild-card spot and would reportedly rather buy than sell in Tarik Skubal's walk year. It won't take much to remove this version of Jansen from the ninth inning, and he's arguably already something less than a true closer.
Worry-o-meter: 3 

Riley O'Brien, Cardinals: O'Brien didn't allow a run in his first 13 appearances this season, but since then, he's been less than impressive, with a 5.19 ERA and 1.46 WHIP since April 25. The Cardinals didn't enter the year looking like contenders, so they're unlikely to mortgage the future and go all-in at the deadline, but if they do want to capitalize on their unexpected first-half success which has them one game behind the Marlins for the final playoff spot, acquiring a reliever who bumps O'Brien back to a setup role could be an affordable way to improve the team.
Worry-o-meter: 3 

Jacob Latz, Rangers: Latz has been one of the breakout bullpen stars of the season, recording a 1.61 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in the first half while saving 18 games. He has a firm grip on the closer job in Texas, and it would take quite a lot to remove him from the ninth inning. But with several of the Rangers' best players getting up there in age — Jacob deGrom is 38, Nathan Eovaldi is 36, Corey Seager is 32 — could they go all-in at the deadline and land Chapman or Miller? Latz has recent experience as a starter and has recorded four or more outs in 11 of his appearances this season, so the Rangers could use him in a high-leverage role earlier in games while Chapman or Miller handle the ninth. Anything less than that, though, and Latz should remain safely in the closer role.
Worry-o-meter: 2

Daniel Palencia, Cubs: Palencia undoubtedly has the talent to close for a contending team, with a 2.86 ERA (3.13 SIERA) and a 28.0 percent strikeout rate over the last two seasons. But can the Cubs trust him to be available in October? He had a shoulder strain in September followed by a lat strain in April and a flexor strain in June. He remains on the injured list due to the latter issue, and while he's making progress and seems set to return sometime in the second half, the Cubs would surely love to bring in someone more reliable. Maybe that more reliable option will merely be someone better than current top options Jacob Webb and Trent Thornton but worse than Palencia himself, but there's at least an outside chance the Cubs decide to shop closer to the top of the market and eliminate their reliance on Palencia entirely.
Worry-o-meter: 2

Category two: Closers who could be dealt away to become setup men

Selling teams almost always want to cash in on their best relievers at the deadline, especially if those relievers only have a year or two left on their contracts. Figuring out the setup man to stash in these situations can often be a fool's errand, as whoever you stash could just as easily wind up being dealt themselves, but I've made a guess in each of these situations nonetheless.

Kenley Jansen, Tigers: Jansen makes both lists. If the Tigers buy, there's a decent chance they buy a better ninth-inning option. If they sell, there's an even greater chance they choose to deal Jansen away. That would of course depend on another team expecting him to bounce back from his 4.56 ERA thus far, though it's not too hard to see a contender valuing his veteran presence and acquiring him to pitch in the seventh inning.
Worry-o-meter: 4
Setup man to stash: Maybe Kyle Finnegan, though Keider Montero has been pitching in high-leverage situations recently. 

Emilio Pagan, Reds: Pagan has pitched quite poorly this season, with a 6.06 ERA and 1.41 WHIP in 16.1 innings, but some of that might be attributable to hamstring issues, which first bothered him on a day-to-day basis in April and then sent him to the injured list in early May for nearly two months. If he proves his health with a string of good outings to start the second half, he'll surely have some suitors, as he was very effective last season with a 2.88 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. He's on an expiring contract and the Reds are eight games out of the final wild-card spot, so they should be happy to get whatever they can for him. Most teams that could potentially acquire Pagan would likely use him in the seventh or eighth inning, though if he recaptures last year's form, there's an outside chance he could keep earning save chances on a new team
Worry-o-meter: 4
Setup man to stash: It would be Tony Santillan, but he's out with an oblique strain, so the answer could be Tejay Antone or Pierce Johnson. Antone is still under team control for next season and is probably the likelier option, but he could easily be dealt as well.

Caleb Kilian, Giants: Kilian has pitched well enough to become the Giants' primary closing option, as his 4.74 ERA comes with a much better 3.43 SIERA. He's under team control through 2031, so the Giants may simply elect to keep him, but the team is nowhere near competitive and would get more use out of a decent prospect than a decent high-leverage reliever. While Kilian is better than his ERA, he isn't good enough to close for most contending teams, so if he does get moved, his save chances will almost certainly dry up.
Worry-o-meter: 4
Setup man to stash: Probably Keaton Winn, who's pitched capably in a high-leverage role this season but has just one save, or possibly Erik Miller, who's also been a productive high-leverage reliever but has just two saves and throws left-handed. Both guys could easily get dealt themselves, and the Giants could simply go back to a committee approach if and when they trade Kilian, so neither Winn nor Miller makes for a particularly attractive stash candidate.

Devin Williams, Mets: Things haven't gone at all how Williams and the Mets hoped this season, as the team sits second-last in the National League with a 40-57 record while their supposed star closer owns a 4.83 ERA and 1.71 WHIP. Williams entered the break on a down note, blowing saves in two of his last three outings, and the money left on his three-year, $51 million contract might turn away most potential suitors. If the Mets are willing to eat some of that salary in order to bring back a better prospect package, though, it might make sense for them to give Williams a fresh start elsewhere. Given the way he's pitched this season (as well as last year, when he had a similar 4.79 ERA), most teams who could acquire him might prefer for him to pitch in a setup role, though there's certainly a chance someone brings him in to close games.
Worry-o-meter: 3 for deadline-related reasons, but bump that up to a 4 when considering he could simply lose his job due to poor performance even without a trade.
Setup man to stash: Luke Weaver. He's the Mets' clear No. 2 option, and he ended the first half on a streak of 25 straight outings without allowing an earned run. He's under contract through the end of next year, and the Mets could elect to keep him around at the deadline to be their closer next season, as they probably intend to contend again right away rather than tearing everything down. 

Yoendrys Gomez, Twins: The Twins sit as surprising contenders at the moment, tied for the final wild-card spot with the Mariners. This doesn't look like a team which is in win-now mode, though, so a losing streak in the next week or two could turn the team into sellers. If that happens, expect teams to make offers for Gomez, who has a 1.71 ERA and 0.99 WHIP since joining the Twins in early May. He'd likely pitch in a setup role for whoever acquires him.
Worry-o-meter: 3
Setup man to stash: Potentially Andrew Morris, who sits second on the team with three saves, though 11 different relievers have at least one save for this team and seven different relievers have at least two, so it's likely that the Twins would use a committee down the stretch if Gomez is traded.

Paul Sewald, Diamondbacks: Sewald has been Arizona's unquestioned closer throughout the season, with 22 of the team's 25 saves. The Diamondbacks also remain in the playoff mix, sitting 2.5 games out of the final wild-card spot, so for now, I don't expect them to sell. Slip just a few more games out of the race in the next two weeks, though, and selling will become the prudent option, and if that happens, it's hard to see a 36-year-old on an expiring contract sticking around. It's also hard to see Sewald closing for whatever team hypothetically trades for him, as despite his strong 28.6 percent strikeout rate and 6.0 percent walk rate, a home run problem (1.85 HR/9) means he has an ERA north of 4.00 for the third straight season.
Worry-o-meter: 3
Setup man to stash: Juan Morillo is second on the team in leverage index and is under team control through 2031, so he's likely to stick around.

Aroldis Chapman, Red Sox: Chapman seemed quite likely to get traded before the Red Sox ended the first half on a nine-game winning streak. They're now just half a game out of the final wild-card spot in the American League, so it would take a losing streak for them to become sellers again. Even if Chapman does get dealt, he's good enough to remain the closer almost anywhere he goes.
Worry-o-meter: 2
Setup man to stash: Garrett Whitlock. He's under control for 2.5 more years, and the Red Sox likely want to compete again next year, so there's a reasonable chance they hold onto him even if they decide to sell at the deadline.

Louis Varland, Blue Jays: The defending American League pennant winners finished the first half 45-51, but that's actually good enough that they're just 2.5 games out of the final playoff spot. For now, I expect them to be sellers, and even if they go on a losing streak they could elect to keep Varland and reload for next year. Additionally, any team who pays the lofty price for Varland, who has a 1.10 ERA and 0.98 WHIP on the season and is under contract through 2030, will probably do so with the intention of installing him as their new closer, but there's an outside chance he's acquired to pitch in front of someone like Edwin Diaz or Jhoan Duran.
Worry-o-meter: 2
Setup man to stash: Jeff Hoffman or Tyler Rogers, though both are quite likely to be dealt themselves if the Blue Jays do decide to tear things down. 

Trevor Megill, Brewers: Most teams would never consider trading a closer like Megill while they sit 22 games over .500, five games ahead of the Cubs for the division lead. But the Brewers aren't most teams. They have a proven willingness to sell and buy at the same time, and with a setup man like Abner Uribe ready to step into the ninth inning if needed, don't be surprised if Milwaukee moves Megill (who has a year and a half left on his contract) for help elsewhere on the field. Megill is good enough that he'd close for most of his hypothetical landing spots, but there's a non-zero chance he ends up as a setup man for a team like the Yankees or Mariners after the deadline.
Worry-o-meter: 2
Setup man to stash: Abner Uribe. He's already stepped into the closer role once this season when Megill was in a slump early in the year, and there's little doubt he'd be the one to take over if the Brewers get creative at the deadline. 

Riley O'Brien, Cardinals: O'Brien, like Kenley Jansen, makes both lists. I expect the Cardinals, who are currently one game back of the final wild-card spot, to remain in the race and buy rather than sell, but if they do go on a losing streak in the next two weeks, O'Brien could become an interesting trade candidate. He's under team control through 2030, so the Cardinals might elect to hold onto him and try to win again next year, but the team could also elect to cash in on the 31-year-old while his value is at or near its peak. O'Brien could close for a handful of potential suitors but could also fit in nicely as a setup man in front of a more proven ninth-inning arm.
Worry-o-meter: 2
Setup man to stash: Maybe George Soriano? JoJo Romero is second on the team in leverage index, but he's on an expiring contract and would almost certainly be traded if the Cardinals do become sellers. Soriano is under contract through 2030 and is therefore more likely to stick around. 

Closer Grid

This article will be published every Monday and Friday this season, taking a look back at the previous series' top closer news. For more closer updates, check out the RotoWire Closer Grid, which changes daily. 

Here's how the whole thing looks as of the start of the second half:

*part of a committee

Questions about any of the closers covered above or any relievers you're considering picking up off the waiver wire? Let me know in the comments below.