This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Expert MLB Picks & Props for Tuesday, September 24
This is it, the final week of the MLB regular season. Not many playoff teams have solidified their spots yet, so for now we should see "normal" roster usage from the contenders. Let's try to find a few wagers!
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MLB Picks for San Diego Padres at Los Angeles Dodgers
Three games separate these two teams in the National League West standings. The Dodgers have clinched a playoff spot while the Padres would have to implode to not make it to October. San Diego can still take the division if they win out and would get at least the No. 2 seed and a bye.
Over 4.5 Runs F5 (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
We have two hot offenses here. The Dodgers rank second in MLB with a wRC+ of 130 over the last 30 days, led by some Shohei Ohtani guy you may have heard of. Is it possible for the GOAT to get even better? He's hit .336 with 12 homers and 15 steals just in the last month. That's a pretty good season for plenty of players. Ohtani is so crazy good we almost have forgotten the Dodgers still field a pretty amazing lineup around him. Mookie Betts has slashed .283/.339/.566 with seven homers since his return. Trade deadline acquisition Tommy Edman has somehow found a power stroke in L.A. with six homers in the month. He has never exceeded 13 in a full season.
The Padres check in at fourth in wRC+ over the last 30 days at 117. They get there more with a really deep lineup that puts everything in play. They lead MLB over that stretch with a 17.3 percent strikeout rate. They take their lead here from Luis Arraez, who has struck out twice in 103 plate appearances while batting .392. Manny Machado is on fire (.314/.355/.637 slash line and nine homers) as is Jackson Merrill (.315/.365/.607).
San Diego should tee off on Dodgers starter Landon Knack, who I really hope uses My Sharona as his entry music. On the surface, he has pitched well with a 3.39 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. But that includes just a .228 BABIP and likely batted-ball luck. His 24.1 percent strikeout rate is pretty good, though he will face a really tough team to strike out here. His actual batted-ball metrics show a 10.6 percent barrel rate, 90 exit velocity and 20.3 launch angle. Yes, that's a lot of hard-hit fly balls, which can keep the BABIP on the low side. But it can also produce a lot of doubles and homers, especially against a team loaded with guys who put the ball in play.
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I am less sure the Dodgers will get to Padres starter Michael King. San Diego somehow traded Juan Soto and got better as they more or less turned him into King and Dylan Cease. The former Yankee reliever is now an ace starter with a 3.04 ERA, backed by a 28 percent strikeout rate. In contrast to Knack, he has just a 5.9 percent barrel rate and 85.6 exit velocity. Still, it's the Dodgers, he may have to get through Ohtani three times in the first five innings.
Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
He may not get an RBI as he bats leadoff and has very little power. But Arraez hits like a metronome. He has 196 hits, 81 runs and 44 RBI in 145 games, which comes out to 2.21 H+R+RBI per game. When I dust off the Poisson calculator it spits out that he has a 62 percent chance of going over on this prop. The odds imply 58 percent, so there is an edge there, assuming league-average run prevention on the other side. Knack, if anything, looks a bit below league average.
Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Going more with the hot hand on this one. One homer alone goes over and so does an RBI hit. Machado should have plenty of plate appearances with ducks on the pond as he bats fourth. Any or all of Arraez, Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. should get on base ahead of him.
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Over 4.5 Runs F5 (-105 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Luis Arraez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI (-125 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
