This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Friday, September 20
- Year-to-Date Record: 160-160-1
- Prior Article: 2-2 (+0.02 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Ensure you have the latest MLB odds before placing any bets on the best online sportsbooks.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Toronto Blue Jays 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
Jose Berrios has been one of the best pitchers in baseball since August 7 with a 1.51 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 47.2 innings. Prior that to he had a 5.72 ERA and 1.40 WHIP from June 5th to August 3rd. If you look at his March 28th-May 31st period he had a 2.78 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. It has been the tale of three seasons for him.
Tyler Alexander has been a spot starter for most of his career and not a very good one. He has a 5.91 ERA and 1.38 WHIP since August 10th. His K/9 is one of the lowest in baseball at 5.1. He ranks 130 out of 133 pitchers with at least 20 innings in the last 30 days with a -0.6 WAR.
Getting Berrios at just about even-money feels like a huge value in this spot especially as neither team has much to play for at this point in the season.
MLB Picks for Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays
- Blue Jays ML for 2 Units (-103 at BetRivers)
Detroit Tigers 
at Baltimore Orioles 
At the end of July, the Tigers traded Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers. They were five games under .500, eight games back of the American League Wild Card and had a one percent chance to make the playoffs. Fast forward six weeks and the Tigers are tied for the Wild Card and are seven games over .500 with a 42 percent chance to make the playoffs.
One of the keys to the Tigers' run has been Brant Hurter, who is 5-1 with a 2.56 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. He just faced the Orioles last Friday, striking out eight and only issuing one walk in 5.2 hitless innings. Now, most of the time when a pitcher has success against a team and faces them again in his next start I try to avoid that situation. But Hurter has been so good and at +165 odds it is hard to pass, especially with how the Orioles are playing.
Corbin Burnes goes tonight and also just faced the Tigers in his last start on September 14, going seven innings with zero earned runs, two hits and seven strikeouts. The under is also in play here at 7.5 runs, but I will take the value on the Tigers as I have this line more in the -150 range.
MLB Picks for Tigers at Orioles
- Tigers ML for 1 Unit (+165 at BetRivers)
Los Angeles Angels 
at Houston Astros 
Justin Verlander has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball since August 21st with an 8.34 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. This total of 8.0 runs is completely based on Verlander's name value and the Angels being a bad team. But Tyler Anderson has been just as bad with a 6.46 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his last six starts.
Both teams could end up hitting this over by the end of the fifth inning.
MLB Picks for Angels at Astros
- Angels/Astros Over 8 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Blue Jays ML for 2 Units (-103 at BetRivers)
- Tigers ML for 1 Unit (+165 at BetRivers)
- Angels/Astros Over 8.0 Runs for 1 Unit (-105 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
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