This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets Tonight
8:07 PM EST, October 19, 2023
8-Unit Best Bet on the Phillies in Game 3 using the money line as offered at DraftKings. Consider betting 6-Units preflop on the money line and then look to add 2 units more if Arizona scores first or retakes the lead during the first four innings of play.
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The Phillies have been tied or had the lead in 70 of 72 innings
The Phillies are playing at a historically high level and as a team are playing at individual Cy Young and MVP levels. Only six other MLB players have hit more home runs in the playoffs than Kyle Schwarber. The Phillies have led or were tied in 70 of the 72 innings they played in the playoffs with the lone exception of Game 2 of the Divisional Series against their rival Atlanta Braves. The Phillies have scored first in all of their eight playoff games. The 2017 Houston Astros scored first in 14 of their 18 playoff games en route to the World Series Championship.
The New Mr. October
There is a fast-approaching and new "Mr. October" to join with the original New York Yankee Reggie Jackson, who hit 18 home runs in 77 career postseason games and three home runs in one World Series game. The Phillies Bryce Harper, with three so far in 2023 playoffs, has 14 home runs in 42 postseason games for his career. There are 192 players with at least 150 career postseason plate appearances, Harper ranks fifth in OPS at 1.017, putting him near the top of a leaderboard featuring legendary names like Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, George Brett and Carlos Beltran.
How Important is Scoring First in the Playoffs?
Teams in the playoffs that scored first went on produce a 462-227 record for 67% wins since 2004. So far, in 2023, teams that scored first have gone 19-4 for 83% and the Phillies account for eight of those games. In other words, there have been just four come-from-behind wins in the playoffs this season.
The Phillies have had nine multiple-run-innings in the playoffs representing 12.5% of the innings played. The Phillies have allowed just three multiple-run-innings while the Diamondbacks have allowed the most with seven. Road teams in the playoffs that have won the first two games of the series are 28-23 for 55% averaging a +111 DOG and earning a 17% ROI.
Who is rookie starter Brandon Pfaadt?
The Diamondbacks are starting rookie Brandon Pfaadt, who was drafted #1569 overall in the 5th round of the 2020 draft and attended Bellarmine University. He is a right-handed pitcher and MLB prototype 6-4 and 220 pounds. He throws 4-seam 45%, a slurve 27%, change up to mostly LH batters 12% and a sinker 10%, and the rest a rare curveball. Since he does throw a slurve (Now called a sweeper and I hate it TBH) so the curve ball rarity is pointless.
The bad news for Pfaadt other than being thrown into the Lion's den, is that he ranks poorly in pitching run value, and just the fifth percentile in fastball run value. Worse yet he ranks in the bottom third percentage in barrel percentage and that is what the Phillies lineup top to bottom does very well right now. I think the Diamondbacks will look to get him through the lineup at least once and no more than twice and then look to their bullpen to finish off the remaining innings.
Of the 1,612 pitches he has thrown, he has yielded 109 hits and 26 walks over 96 innings. 74 of the 109 hits allowed had exit velocities of over 100 MPH, which is horrid, especially against a power-hitting team like the Phillies. Moreover, his expected weighted OBP is 0.291 entering this game.
The Difference Maker is the Phillies' Bullpen
If having great starting pitching was not enough for opposing teams to face, they also must face the most dominant relievers in the game. In the playoffs, the Phillies' relievers have amassed an incredible 1.09 ERA and a 1.135 WHIP including 22 strikeouts and allowing one home run spanning 24 2/3 innings of work. By comparison, the Diamondbacks relievers are not even comparable as they have posted a 3.51 ERA and a 1.441 WHIP including 23 strikeouts, but a terrible 25 hits and 12 walks allowed over 25 2/3 innings of work.
Are the Phillies Going to Keep Up the Pace?
Normally, during the regular season, a team like the Phillies, that is hitting at extraordinarily high levels would be expected to suffer some form of regression in the next several games. However, this is an extremely special group of ball players, who are steadily getting better and better since the all-star break. Their team is a unit of individual ball players, who have great chemistry and a will to win like an MVP ball player.
The Trends and Angles You Need to Know For Game 3
· The Phillies are 15-7 in the second half of this season when facing a team that is scoring 4.75 or more RPG.
· Ranger Suarez, the starter for the Phillies is 14-7 when facing NL foes that are scoring 4.5 or more RPG in games played over the past two seasons.
· Phillies are 21-5 over the past two seasons when facing a NL starter that has an ERA of 5.25 or worse.
Player Props for NLCS Game 3 (1-Unit max each)
Brandon Pfaadt Under 11.5 recorded outs +110 at BetMGM
Bryson Stott to record an RBI +225 at UniBet
Corbin Carroll to record a double +550 at Bet365
Nick Castellanos to score a run +170 at DraftKings
