Which Major League Baseball teams were the most surprising and most disappointing in April, judging by their preseason over/under win totals? RotoWire.com compared each team's season over/under win totals at bet365 Sportsbook with their actual records as of April 30 (our metrics also include the last few days of March).
| Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Yankees | 90.5 | 105 | +14.5 | Over | |
 Toronto Blue Jays | 88.5 | 73 | -15.5 | Under | |
 Boston Red Sox | 87.5 | 63 | -24.5 | Under | |
 Baltimore Orioles | 85.5 | 78 | -7.5 | Under | |
 Tampa Bay Rays | 76.5 | 97 | +20.5 | Over |
| Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Detroit Tigers | 85.5 | 81 | -4.5 | Under | |
 Kansas City Royals | 82.5 | 63 | -19.5 | Under | |
 Cleveland Guardians | 78.5 | 81 | +2.5 | Over | |
 Minnesota Twins | 72.5 | 71 | -1.5 | On Track | |
 Chicago White Sox | 67.5 | 73 | +5.5 | Over |
| Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Seattle Mariners | 89.5 | 81 | -8.5 | Under | |
 Houston Astros | 86.5 | 61 | -25.5 | Under | |
 Texas Rangers | 83.5 | 78 | -5.5 | Under | |
 Athletics | 75.5 | 89 | +13.5 | Over | |
 Los Angeles Angels | 70.5 | 61 | -9.5 | Under |
| Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 New York Mets | 90.5 | 52 | -38.5 | Under | |
 Philadelphia Phillies | 89.5 | 63 | -26.5 | Under | |
 Atlanta Braves | 86.5 | 111 | +24.5 | Over | |
 Miami Marlins | 72.5 | 78 | +5.5 | Over | |
 Washington Nationals | 65.5 | 76 | +10.5 | Over |
| Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Chicago Cubs | 88.5 | 99 | +10.5 | Over | |
 Milwaukee Brewers | 84.5 | 86 | +1.5 | On Track | |
 Cincinnati Reds | 80.5 | 105 | +24.5 | Over | |
 Pittsburgh Pirates | 78.5 | 81 | +2.5 | Over | |
 St. Louis Cardinals | 69.5 | 94 | +24.5 | Over |
| Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Los Angeles Dodgers | 103.5 | 105 | +1.5 | On Track | |
 San Diego Padres | 83.5 | 103 | +19.5 | Over | |
 San Francisco Giants | 80.5 | 68 | -12.5 | Under | |
 Arizona Diamondbacks | 79.5 | 86 | +6.5 | Over | |
 Colorado Rockies | 55.5 | 71 | +15.5 | Over |
| # | Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlanta Braves NL East | 86.5 | 111 | +24.5 | |
| 2 | Cincinnati Reds NL Central | 80.5 | 105 | +24.5 | |
| 3 | St. Louis Cardinals NL Central | 69.5 | 94 | +24.5 | |
| 4 | Tampa Bay Rays AL East | 76.5 | 97 | +20.5 | |
| 5 | San Diego Padres NL West | 83.5 | 103 | +19.5 | |
| 6 | Colorado Rockies NL West | 55.5 | 71 | +15.5 | |
| 7 | New York Yankees AL East | 90.5 | 105 | +14.5 | |
| 8 | Athletics AL West | 75.5 | 89 | +13.5 | |
| 9 | Washington Nationals NL East | 65.5 | 76 | +10.5 | |
| 10 | Chicago Cubs NL Central | 88.5 | 99 | +10.5 | |
| 11 | Arizona Diamondbacks NL West | 79.5 | 86 | +6.5 | |
| 12 | Chicago White Sox AL Central | 67.5 | 73 | +5.5 | |
| 13 | Miami Marlins NL East | 72.5 | 78 | +5.5 | |
| 14 | Cleveland Guardians AL Central | 78.5 | 81 | +2.5 | |
| 15 | Pittsburgh Pirates NL Central | 78.5 | 81 | +2.5 |
| # | Team | O/U | Pace | Diff | Bar |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | New York Mets NL East | 90.5 | 52 | -38.5 | |
| 2 | Philadelphia Phillies NL East | 89.5 | 63 | -26.5 | |
| 3 | Houston Astros AL West | 86.5 | 61 | -25.5 | |
| 4 | Boston Red Sox AL East | 87.5 | 63 | -24.5 | |
| 5 | Kansas City Royals AL Central | 82.5 | 63 | -19.5 | |
| 6 | Toronto Blue Jays AL East | 88.5 | 73 | -15.5 | |
| 7 | San Francisco Giants NL West | 80.5 | 68 | -12.5 | |
| 8 | Los Angeles Angels AL West | 70.5 | 61 | -9.5 | |
| 9 | Seattle Mariners AL West | 89.5 | 81 | -8.5 | |
| 10 | Baltimore Orioles AL East | 85.5 | 78 | -7.5 | |
| 11 | Texas Rangers AL West | 83.5 | 78 | -5.5 | |
| 12 | Detroit Tigers AL Central | 85.5 | 81 | -4.5 |
Biggest Surprise MLB Teams in 2026 April Standings
So far, 15 MLB teams find themselves on pace to clear their preseason win total over/under based on winning percentages through the end of April.
Even with high expectations, that cast of clubs including the two-time reigning World Series champion Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League and the always powerful New York Yankees in the American League. Both ended April at 20-11, so both are on pace for 105 wins. For L.A., that's just over the 103.5 preseason win wager at sports betting apps.
But those teams are hardly surprises. That distinction belongs to teams such as the Cincinnati Reds, who are atop the NL Central at 20-11 and tied with the Dodgers for the second-best record in the Senior Circuit (behind the 22-10 Atlanta Braves). The Reds entered 2026 with a win total over/under of 80.5.
While oddsmakers from DraftKings Sportsbook are still giving Cincy the second-best NL Central championship odds, at +350, that's a lot more promising than where sportsbooks had Terry Francona's team to start the season.
Speaking of the Cubs, the North Siders have been another early season surprise in 2026. They are 19-12 and on pace to win about 100 games (actually 99) for the first time since the team's World Series season of 2016.
Manager Craig Counsell's team is the resounding favorite to win the NL Central for the first time since 2020 at bet365, with +115 odds. That is well ahead of the Reds and the Milwaukee Brewers (+350 each).
But the biggest surprise when we compare current pace to their preseason win total line is the Tampa Bay Rays. The AL East contenders are on pace to clear their preseason number of 76.5 by more than 20 victories (a 97-win pace), which proves the high level of play out of Kevin Cash's club early in the 2026 season.
FanDuel Sportsbook gives Tampa Bay +470 odds of winning 90 or more games this year, to go with +3000 odds that they clear the 100-win mark in their return to the rebuilt Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg.
Most Disappointing MLB Teams Based on Over/Under Wins
When it comes to 2026 MLB disappointments, it doesn't get much more bitter than the way the Boston Red Sox have performed out of the gate.
The Red Sox, with a preseason win total of 87.5, have delivered a putrid 12-19 start that cost manager Alex Cora his job. Boston's on pace to finish almost 25 games short of their O/U betting line at MLB betting sites.
Outside of Beantown, another disappointment is the Kansas City Royals, who are on pace to win 63 games after starting the year with an over/under of 82.5 victories. The San Francisco Giants (O/U 80.5) are off to a 13-18 start as they enter May in last place in the NL West.
Of course, we'd be remiss to not mention a pair of NL East clubs that have taken on water already this season. The New York Mets have the worst record in MLB at 10-21, on pace to miss their preseason number of 90.5 wins by a whopping 38.2 victories. The Philadelphia Phillies (O/U 89.5) haven't been much better, sitting at 12-19, a start which cost Rob Thomson his job as manager.
All told, there has been no shortage of highlights and lowlights out of the gate this baseball season. Some clubs have done a better job of meeting (or exceeding) the hype when compared with their less-successful brethren in the 30-team league. Stick with RotoWire.com for the best MLB betting promo codes all season.
