MLB Divisional Series Bets: Expert MLB Picks for Saturday, October 12
- Year-to-Date Record: 175-174-1
- Prior Article: 4-1 (+2.5 units)
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MLB Postseason Betting Tips
PITCHING IMPACT
A lower run-scoring environment means you want to focus on under run totals, pitcher hits allowed and over strikeouts. Avoid laying -1.5 runs unless it is an extreme situation.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game in the regular season. In the postseason it goes down as teams have a day off between games. Bullpens are critical to postseason success and should be heavily taken into consideration.
HITTER PROPS
Be careful with hitter props because every team is throwing their best pitchers. We are dealing with some of the best MLB teams. I will look only at home run + runs + RBI props on a top-four hitter in the playoffs.
Don't make any bets on the best online sportsbooks without first making sure you are making informed bets by having the latest MLB odds at your fingertips.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Detroit Tigers 
at Cleveland Guardians 
This has been a great series, but offensively challenged, to say the least. Game 5 should be exciting, though, with Tarik Skubal facing Matthew Boyd. Skubal has been the best pitcher in the American League and lights out in the playoffs. He is much better at home than on the road, however. Matthew Boyd is being overlooked here as he has been strong in his last seven starts.
The Guardians are also significantly better at home and have the better bullpen/closer.
I can not see Skubal going fewer than six innings in this game as the Tigers need him desperately but the juice on his over recorded outs prop is -190.
Ultimately, I like the Guardians to take the series. At plus-money, as a home underdog, there is value here. I am staying away from the full game under because as home underdogs the Guardians have put up runs. I think the Guardians get to the Tigers' bullpen late.
Best MLB Picks for Tigers at Guardians
- Guardians Moneyline for 1 Unit (+105 at BetRivers)
- Tigers Team Total Under 0.5 Runs F3 for 1 Unit (-105 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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