After a weirdly scheduled Thursday, we've got a massive 11-game main slate Friday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch set for 7:05 p.m. EDT. There isn't a pitcher priced in five-figures and only three arms are currently priced at $9,000 or above. That hopefully gives us plenty of funds to spend freely on offense.
Coors Field is present, where the surging Braves offense results in a slate-high 11.0 run total. Three other games have totals at 9.0 or 9.5, including Guardians-A's, which includes one of the higher-priced arms in Joey Cantillo ($8,800). Atlanta (-190) leads the way as the most favored side, followed by the Yankees (-184) and Dodgers (-178). Rain doesn't seem to be a problem across the slate. Minor inbound winds appear present in Minneapolis, Denver and Sacramento, with minor outbound winds may help in San Diego and Anaheim.
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
Pitching
Zack Wheeler, PHI at MIA ($9,000): I trust not many, if any, will target Marlin bats Friday, so it stands to reason we can turn that around and back Wheeler for a floor at worst. He threw 84 pitches in his season debut, inducing 15 swinging strikes in route to six Ks across five frames, though he walked three. You'd expect the control to improve with each additional outing, and we know Wheeler has some of the best stuff across the league when right. The price will only go up. Current Marlins are hitting .250 with a .643 OPS against him, fanning a massive 34.1 percent in 41 plate appearances.
Cole Ragans, KC at SEA ($8,200): This appears to be low-hanging fruit. Ragans is off an 11-strikeout outing, but has been widely inconsistent overall, allowing zero or one run three times and 14 runs in his other three outings. Seattle has just a .283 wOBA and 81 wRC+ off lefties, and we know the ballpark helps. Further adding appeal is current Mariners are hitting .194 with a .581 OPS in 40 plate appearances.
J.T. Ginn, A's vs. CLE ($6,400): Perhaps an unnecessary risk given the depth of the slate, but that also will lead to very low roster percentages in GPPs. If you're a multi-entry player, taking a shot here and loading up on bats could be a different path. Ginn has started four times and returned 24.0 FanDuel points or better twice, which will flirt with a 4x return. We know the ballpark makes this scary, but Ginn has a 51.4 percent ground ball rate and light winds can hold up some of the fly balls surrendered. Cleveland's offense is streaky, but overall has just a .304 wOBA and 90 wRC+ off righties. Very minimal strikeout upside adds to the risk of needing clean innings, but you're not expecting a massive ceiling at this price. Christian Scott ($6,600) can also be considered in this bottom tier.
Top Targets
Atlanta is in Coors Field, and while we haven't always seen price increases this season, we absolutely are Friday, with Matt Olson ($4,700) coming in ridiculously high. Lefty Jose Quintana toes, which immediately puts Ozzie Albies ($3,700) from the right side in play. He has a 12-game hitting streak, homering in two of three, and is 9-for-19 (.474) with three homers off Quintana.
Similar to Albies, Aaron Judge ($4,300) is usually an automatic play against a lefty (Cade Povich not 100 percent confirmed for Baltimore). It's minimal, but he's 2-for-3 off Povich with both being homers.
It's not hard hitting analysis, but the likely matchup necessitates pointing out the obvious. Jake Bennett is expected to make his MLB debut Friday, and Yordan Alvarez ($4,400) is destroying lefties, hitting .432 with a 1.392 OPS and .459 ISO. Bennett's 0.86 ERA in Triple-A comes with an elevated 3.74 xFIP, and his low 6.9 K/9 seems to spell trouble against better hitters.
Bargain Bats
The Mets stink. Walbert Urena probably also stinks. Juan Soto ($3,300) remains priced down and has homered in two of three. Too much potential at this number for me to fade.
Mike Burrows is allowing a .443 wOBA to lefties, a number that rises to .524 on the road. Boston's lineup is long on cheap lefties to help round out your lineup. Wilyer Abreu ($3,100) is probably the safest, Jarren Duran ($2,900) is in a horrible slump and will be nearly zero percent rostered, while Marcelo Mayer ($2,600) is quietly hitting .370 over his last 11 games, just with no power.
Teams are loading up righties against Matthew Liberatore (102 of 135 batters faced), but it's lefties who are squaring him up, posting a .535 wOBA and 1.263 OPS. Kyle Tucker ($3,200) makes plenty of sense at this price, and Dalton Rushing ($3,000) is in the mix if starting. Stacking potential exists with the bigger names if you want to fade the top targets above.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays vs. Simeon Woods Richardson (MIN): Vladimir Guerrero ($3,200), George Springer ($2,900), Daulton Varsho ($2,700)
You can tell from the price points that the Blue Jays offense isn't firing on all cylinders. We've got a moderate 8.5 run total in this game despite Woods Richardson opposing Patrick Corbin, which doesn't smell right to me, even with the minor winds noted in the intro. Woods Richardson has allowed a homer in each of his six starts, and is surrendering a .405 wOBA to lefties and .389 wOBA to righties. There's some serious BvP success here, as the Blue Jays lineup is 22-for-56 (.393) with a 1.237 OPS. The curious part is the bulk of the damage has come from Davis Schneider ($2,500) and Andres Gimenez ($3,000). The former is in terrible form and may not play, the latter doesn't hit high enough in the lineup for stacking consideration, but both can be one-offs if you're not trusting the Jays bigger names.
Padres vs. Noah Schultz (White Sox): Manny Machado ($3,200), Jackson Merrill ($3,100), Fernando Tatis ($2,900)
Schultz has been pretty good, and the Padres have been largely terrible against lefties, so this is a low-rostered, contrarian GPP play only. San Diego had yesterday off to clear their minds after having dropped three of four, and I'm expecting a little bit of urgency from them here. Machado is the exception, and a terrific stand alone play, posting a .456 wOBA and 195 wRC+. Merrill has just a .332 wOBA but decent 112 wRC+. Tatis, well, we'll just take a flier at the discounted price. We're all aware of the power drought, but at least we can say he's hitting .250 over the last 14 days. The Padres come with a decent 4.7 run expectancy.
