The 4th of July weekend is over and All-Star Game rosters have been named, two things that feel like demarcation points in the MLB season. Things like MVP races are down to a handful of names, and making MLB DFS decisions is less speculative. There are seven games on the DFS docket for Monday, with a first pitch at 6:40 p.m. ET. That means you can get your lineups in well before the United States takes on Belgium. Go USA, and here are some recommendations on the MLB front.
Pitching
Walker Buehler, SDP vs. ARI ($8,600): After a strong run, Buehler's last start was bad. It was also on the road, which is relevant. In the pitcher-friendly confines of the Padres' park, Buehler has a 3.13 ERA this season, in part because a guy who has struggled with allowing homers has been able to keep the ball in the park in San Diego. The Diamondbacks are below-average in terms of runs scored, and they have a sub-.700 OBP, so Buehler might get back on track.
Reynaldo Lopez, ATL vs. NYM ($7,000): Lopez is back in the starting rotation, and he went five innings in his last outing, which is key when considering the potential of getting a win. All in all, he has a 3.31 ERA on the campaign as well. Can Lopez handle the Mets, who are in the bottom five in runs scored and team OPS? I do believe so.
Top Targets
In each of the last two seasons, Matt Olson ($3,600) has fallen one homer short of 30 homers and 30 doubles. Given that he has 22 of the former and 23 of the latter in 2026, he seems primed to make that happen this time around. He's slugged .549 against righties this year, so Monday's matchup could help make that a reality. Freddy Peralta has had a rough year in general, but on the road he has a 6.06 ERA and 1.8 HR/9 rate. Also, remarkably, lefties have hit 12 of the 13 homers he's allowed.
While Andy Pages ($3,400) has improved a bit on the margins, mostly he's just replicated what he did last season. Of course, that was a breakthrough campaign, so there are no complaints to be had about that. A guy who will hit around .270 with 25-to-30 homers and doubles plus double-digit stolen bases? Yeah, that'll work. Plus, he loves his home park, where he has an .877 OPS in his career. Kyle Freeland has allowed righties to hit over .300 against him the last three years, and his 5.63 ERA on the road shows he doesn't simply suffer from pitching at Coors Field. He's not cut out to pitch in MLB, and that's quite clear at this point.
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Bargain Bats
It's not surprising that Luis Arraez ($3,100) has hit .326, but he's also managed seven triples and six stolen bases this season. As a bit of a slap hitter, the fact it can be hard to hit home runs in San Francisco hasn't hindered the southpaw at all. Arraez has an .820 OPS at home in his first season with the Giants. It hasn't been the norm for Kevin Gausman to have notable home/road splits as a Blue Jay, but he has a 5.40 ERA on the road this season and that is striking.
The Padres have a bad offense, and it's even worse at home. By dint of Ty France ($2,600) slugging .462 at Petco Park he legitimately manages to stand out. On top of that, he has an .865 OPS over the last three weeks. Since 2024, Brandon Pfaadt has a 5.87 ERA on the road, which is why I hoped to find a Padre bat, and indeed I did in France.
Stacks to Consider
Nationals vs. Astros (Mike Burrows): James Wood ($4,500), CJ Abrams ($3,900), Daylen Lile ($3,100)
Based on his rookie campaign in 2025, the Astros were probably expecting to get a decent pitcher in Burrows. However, the former Pirate has instead faltered considerably with his new squad. He's gone from a 3.13 K/BB ratio to a 2.18 K/BB ratio, he's allowed 1.89 homers per nine innings, and he has a 5.58 ERA. Also, lefties have hit .317 against him, and thus I have three southpaws in this stack.
Wood has an OPS over .960 against righties and also at home, so that pretty much covers it. However, he's also hit 23 homers with 13 stolen bases, and because this offense is so good he's already scored 78 runs in only 91 games. Abrams is having a career year, though with "only" 14 steals he may not get to 30 again, much less the 47 he had in 2023. His .348 OBP and .498 slugging percentage are both comfortably personal bests, though, and his 18 homers are only two off his current personal high of 20. Lile has cooled off a bit, but on the year he has 20 doubles, three triples, 10 homers, and eight stolen bases. He hasn't been quite as good against righties as last year, though, and so in his career he's slugged .504 against righties.
Astros at Nationals (Miles Mikolas): Yordan Alvarez ($4,400), Christian Walker ($3,300), Taylor Trammell ($2,500)
For the fourth season in a row, Mikolas is going to finish with an ERA over 4.75. That's, you know, bad. This year, the former Cardinal's ERA is all the way up to 5.44. Never a strikeout pitcher, Mikolas' K/9 rate has plummeted to 5.02, and his HR/9 rate is up to 1.92. Over the last three seasons both lefties and righties have hit over .275 against Mikolas, but since he is right-handed, I do have two lefties in this stack.
Alvarez is going to hit over .300 with over 30 home runs, which is a rare combination these days. He's maybe the best southpaw in MLB at hitting lefties, but his 1.125 OPS against righties is what is relevant here, at least when the game starts. Walker is here for his power potential, as he has 20 home runs and has had at least 26 in each of the last four seasons. Though he has been cold, he's shown more power (in terms of slugging percentage) against righties and on the road, so maybe he can lock in Monday. Trammell isn't really in the lineup for his bat, but he's hit .272 against lefties and he has an .899 OPS on the road. He's worth a shot at this salary against Mikolas.
