Friday's main slate at FanDuel includes 12 games and gets underway at an earlier than usual 6:45 p.m. EDT. Eight arms are priced at $9,000 or greater with half of those in five-figures, giving us plenty of choices on the high end.
Runs again figure to be plentiful with Coors Field and Sutter Health Park on the docket. Rockies-Giants, A's-Marlins and Yankees-Twins all have run totals of 10.5 or greater, and three additional games sit at 9.5. The low point comes in Seattle with just a 7.0 run total. The Dodgers (-250), as usual, are massive favorites, followed by the Yankees (-188). Weather looks incredibly favorable overall, with all games that are outdoors and not in Los Angeles figure to be played in the 90s, though wind doesn't look like it will have an impact.
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Pitching
Gavin Williams, CLE vs. CWS ($9,300): All arms priced above Williams are in consideration, but I'll back the Cleveland starter for a slight discount. He's got a stout 2.74 home ERA (3.13 xFIP), striking out 10.2 per nine. The White Sox have a decent 105 wRC+ off righties, but it comes with a 23.4 percent K rate. He hasn't reached six innings in any of his last five starts, of mild concern for an elite return, so perhaps he's a better cash-game floor-play. Williams faced the White Sox two starts ago and returned 3.5x.
Trevor Rogers, BAL at CIN ($8,600): Rogers is only an option for multi-entry GPPs and for managers who have a high risk tolerance. We wouldn't normally target arms in Great American Ballpark, especially one with a 46.0 percent fly ball rate. Rogers is surging however, and the price hasn't caught fully up. He's allowed seven runs in his last five starts, spanning 30.2 innings, striking out 23. Yes, we'd like more of those, and perhaps Cincinnati will oblige with their 24.6 percent K rate off lefties.
Luis Castillo, SEA vs. TOR ($7,800): I have some interest in Anthony Kay ($8,000) opposing Williams, and I don't think there's much debate that he's the higher-ceiling play. But Castillo comes slightly cheaper, has the favorable ballpark factor, is off a vintage performance and faces a lineup he's comfortable with. Toronto is hitting just .220 with a .637 OPS against him across 115 plate appearances, striking out at an elevated 26.1 percent. Seattle is a slight underdog, but the game has a 7.0 run total, and we could get some value out of Castillo for far cheaper than his adversary, Dylan Cease ($10,400) in a potential pitcher's duel.
Top Targets
For the nonballpark boosts, Washington's James Wood ($4,200) and CJ Abrams ($3,800) merit consideration. Wood is hitting .333 with two homers in his last six, and while Abrams isn't in great form, he's homered in four of 12. They've both taken Mitch Keller deep and are a collective 10-for-26 (.385) off him.
Tyler Phillips doesn't have hugely targetable splits, but he'll bring a 5.67 road ERA (5.37 FIP) into Friday's game against the Athletics. Nick Kurtz ($4,200) hasn't homered since June 21; he seems due.
Conflicting reports on who's starting for the Rockies Friday, but it appears it will be Ryan Feltner, who hasn't been awful overall. Rafael Devers ($3,600) is surging, hitting .350 in his last six and has five homers in his last 12. The price is up, but not massively for the Coors Field boost.
Bargain Bats
Yankee bats are a challenging evaluation Friday. The team should flirt with seven runs, but the big names are in terrible form over the last week-plus. We'll need to see their lineup card before confirming options, but a value play on any of Anthony Volpe ($2,900), Spencer Jones ($2,500) or Jasson Dominguez ($2,800) mitigates risk.
Liam Hicks ($3,000) has five hits in three games since returning from the IL and makes for an easy entry point into this high-scoring game in Sacramento. He has a .380 wOBA and 140 wRC+ off righties for the year.
Francisco Lindor ($2,900) merits daily consideration when still priced below 3k. He's homered in two of his last three, though has not offered much more. Atlanta starter Grant Holmes is allowing a modest .341 wOBA to lefties at home, his highest split.
Stacks to Consider
Rays vs. Spencer Arrighetti (Astros): Junior Caminero ($3,900), Jonathan Aranda ($3,500), Cedric Mullins ($2,900)
Arrighetti has allowed six homers in his last two starts, has a 41.2 percent fly ball rate overall, with nearly 12 percent of those flies leaving the yard. Caminero saw his six-game homer binge end last time out, but fade him at your own risk. He's hitting hitting .373 with nine homers and 21 RBI over his last 13. The top of this order is expensive, so we have to get a little creative to afford a full blown stack. Arrighetti is more vulnerable to lefties, and Mullins is surging, hitting .324 with four homers in his last 10. Perhaps he's due to move up the order, but if not, Victor Mesa ($2,600) can be a bargain piece as needed. Aranda meanwhile needs minimal discussion; he's hitting .383 with a 1.066 OPS over his last 13.
Orioles vs. Brady Singer (Reds): Gunnar Henderson ($3,200), Adley Rutschman ($3,000), Samuel Basallo ($2,900)
A potential bargain stack for GPPs here. None of these three are in particularly great form, which should help keep roster percentages low. Singer has been better of late and better at home overall, but is still allowing a .392 wOBA and .910 OPS to lefties on the season, and Baltimore is going to give us these three likely hitting in the top five of their order, and they come with nearly a six run expectancy in a hitters ballpark.
