It typically takes me about 15-20 minutes to make my picks before writing, but these ones came together much quicker. I'm not exactly sure why that's the case, but it has to be a good sign. What I really love about this slate is some of the discounts we're looking at. There's a pitcher that I can't believe is below $7K and two value hitters hovering around $3K that'll be tough to avoid as well. That should make things much easier from a lineup construction standpoint, because using those guys lets you build the rest of your lineup however you want. With that said, let's take a look at the pitchers we like for this Monday slate.
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Pitching
Spencer Arrighetti, HOU at LAA ($9,500)
Some of Arrighetti's advanced statistics indicate some negative regression, but this guy is pitching too well to avoid it in a matchup like this. Let's start there because the Halos ranks 19th in wOBA and dead last in K rate. That won't bode well given how Arrighetti has performed all season, as he's accrued a 1.94 ERA and 1.18 WHIP en route to a 7-1 record. He's also scored at least 15 DraftKings points in all but two starts while scoring at least 19 DK points in all three matchups with the Angels over the last three years.
Andrew Abbott, CIN at SD ($6,800)
Abbott was atrocious through the first month of the season, but it appears the southpaw has solved his issues. He's allowed three runs or fewer in seven straight starts while amassing a 2.25 ERA and 1.20 WHIP in that span. That's the guy we saw last season, when Abbott accrued a 2.87 ERA and 1.15 WHIP across 29 starts. Pitching in San Diego only adds to his appeal because Petco Park is one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball. Not to mention, the Padres sit dead last in runs scored and wOBA, with Abbott scoring nearly 30 DK points in their one road matchup last season.
Top Targets
Yordan Alvarez, HOU (vs. Grayson Rodriguez) $6,200
Rodriguez has one of the worst ERAs and WHIPs in baseball, but we'll dive into that more below. This is about Alvarez, who's one of the frontrunners for AL MVP behind a sensational season. The slugger has a .430 OBP and 1.084 OPS this year while bringing his career averages to a .392 OBP and .972 OPS. His splits are even more stupendous, totaling a .444 OBP and 1.077 OPS against righties this year. It's not like Alvarez has cooled off either, collecting a .491 OBP and 1.400 OPS over the last two weeks.
Jackson Chourio, MIL (vs. Jeffrey Springs) $5,700
There's a reason why Chourio was a top-20 pick in nearly every season-long league. An early injury slowed him down a bit, but Chourio has collected a .280 AVG and .844 OPS across his last 20 outings. Most importantly, he has the profile to be a 25-25 player while hitting leadoff for one of the best lineups in the league. He also has the platoon advantage against a struggling southpaw. Chourio has a .299 AVG and .814 OPS against lefties during his career, while Springs has a 5.96 ERA and 1.50 WHIP across his last nine starts.
Bargain Bats
Alec Bohm, PHI (vs. Patrick Corbin) $3,100
I was floored to see Bohm sitting at just $3,100. This is the best value of the day as he should hit fifth for a Phillies team that's projected to score five runs. It's easy to see why their projection is so high, because Corbin has a 5.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP since 2020. Most importantly, he gives the platoon advantage to Bohm, who has a .298 AVG and .850 OPS against lefties in his career. That's evident in his BvP numbers, and he's posted a .370 AVG and 1.137 OPS in 27 at-bats against Corbin. This is one of the best stacks on this slate, with Kyle Schwarber ($6,300), Bryce Harper ($5,300), Trea Turner ($5,000) and J.T. Realmuto ($3,500) also looking like good options. All of these guys have seen Corbin a ton, and they all have an OPS above .800 against him.
Bryce Eldridge, SF (vs. Miles Mikolas) $2,800
Some top prospects gets slapped with low salaries until they prove themselves, and that's just what we have with Eldridge. The strange thing is that he's been hitting well lately, accumulating a .514 OBP and 1.232 OPS across his last nine outings. I had to double-check that given Eldridge's salary, but it's no surprise for a guy that had a .445 OBP and .965 OPS at Triple-A this year. He also hits from the left side against Mikolas, something I'll talk about more below.
Stacks to Consider
San Francisco Giants vs. Washington Nationals (Mikolas): Casey Schmitt ($4,400), Rafael Devers ($4,000), Jung Hoo Lee ($3,700), Eldridge ($2,800)
Using the Giants in pitcher-friendly Oracle Park is a risky proposition, but is anyone really risky against a guy like Mikolas? The veteran right-hander simply doesn't have it anymore, amassing a 6.39 ERA and 1.40 WHIP this season. That looks even better since San Francisco's offense is starting to turn things around, scoring 34 runs over their last four fixtures.
Schmitt has been the team's best slugger this season, sporting a .300 AVG and .907 OPS since April 1. Devers was last year's big acquisition for the Giants, generating a .374 OBP and .910 OPS against righties over the last three years. Lee is quietly one of the hottest hitters in baseball, accruing a .585 AVG and 1.327 OPS across his last 11 outings.
Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels (Rodriguez): Alvarez ($6,200), Jose Altuve ($4,200), Christian Walker ($4,100), Isaac Paredes ($3,600)
We had hope that Rodriguez would recapture the form that once made him a top prospect when he was an Oriole, but that hasn't been the case. In fact, he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. G-Rod has made only four starts since his return from Tommy John surgery, but he's stumbled to a 9.50 ERA and 1.89 WHIP. That's scary against one of the hottest lineups in the league, with Houston scoring 36 runs across its previous five games before getting shut out Sunday.
While Alvarez is an easy option atop this stack, Altuve is right there with him. The All-Star second baseman has homered in two of his last four games. Walker has an .827 OPS in a bounce-back season while posting an .895 OPS across his last 13 outings. Paredes might be the hottest of the bunch, providing a .462 AVG and 1.731 OPS across the last four fixtures.
