This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
A somewhat reduced nine-game slate is on tap for Tuesday evening's FanDuel main slate. There's no shortage of high quality pitching, with three arms coming in at five figures, and five more in the $9k tier. With Miami not having a listed arm as of Monday evening, that's 47.1 percent of the pitching being "pay up" options in my book. That doesn't mean we can't sneak by with a lower-end arm, but it does mean we'll have to get creative offensively.
Our double-digit run totals come in Colorado and New York, so shares there make sense, while the slate's lowest total of 7.5 comes in Seattle. Weather looks safe and dry across the country, so we should be all systems go.
Pitching
Freddy Peralta, MIL vs. MIA ($10,500): Justin Verlander is the obvious answer on the mound against the A's, but for $200 more, I'm willing to spend that for someone that surely has lower usage rates. Peralta struggled in his last outing, and it's possible he's tiring, but he was on a tremendous run prior with five quality starts in seven outings, never earning less than 40 FDP. The Marlins' K rate is only 21.1 percent off righties, but they rank 21st with a 90 wRC+ and .305 wOBA, and their lineup is littered with injuries. It's a prime spot for a bounceback, and historically, Marlin batters have combined for a terrifically targetable 29.3 percent K rate.
Bryan Woo, SEA vs. LAA ($9,500): There just aren't any ideal mid-tier options on this slate, which leaves Woo as the lowest-priced arm I'm comfortable with. His last outing leaves plenty to be desired, and the zero strikeouts has pushed him down to just 8.7 per nine on the year, but he's shown swing and miss capabilities and the Angels bring a 24.5 percent K rate into Tuesday. Woo has faced the Angels twice already, earning 34 and 29 FDP. While that's far from elite, it's seemingly stable enough to back him.
Zack Littell, TB at MIN ($6,400): This is such an obvious pay-down option it could perhaps make sense to heavily fade it. Littell is coming off an eight-inning, one-run performance and gets a Twins lineup that fans a massive 27.3 percent of the time of righties. Littell isn't a big strikeout guy at just 7.1 per nine, and for their swing and misses, the Twins still rank fifth with a .329 wOBA in this spot. For the price though, Littell doesn't need much more than 20 FDP to provide a fair return, and he can get that even with five innings and a handful of Ks.
Top Targets
A lot of builds are going to be based around Cubs hitters, so I'll present options and implore you to take one or two, but not a full stack. Cody Bellinger ($4,600) is priced too high for my liking, but his .360 wOBA off righties is the team's best, and he's 2-for-2 against Chris Flexen.
As obvious as Verlander is on the bump, Astro bats figure to be equally popular. They've got a plethora of options with successful splits off lefties, and many with solid BvP success against JP Sears in limited exposure. Kyle Tucker ($3,700) is in a power drought, having not homered since August 27 and collecting just four extra-base hits since then. Perhaps that gets him ignored over some of Houston's other options. He boasts a .403 wOBA, 160 wRC+ and .262 ISO off lefties, and is 3-for-7 against Sears with two long balls.
While the above are matchup plays, on a slate with such talented pitching, there's ample reason to take safe anchors and just move on. Julio Rodriguez ($4,500) or Freddie Freeman ($4,200) fit that bill the best.
Bargain Bats
As noted above, Cubs bats are the obvious play. There are multiple options with plus success against Flexen, though they're priced up due to Coors' Field. Dansby Swanson ($3,600) is 4-for-6 off him, Yan Gomes ($3,100) has gone 2-for-2 and Jeimer Candelario ($3,600) is 3-for-4. All incredibly small sample sizes. Perhaps Pete Crow-Armstrong ($2,400) is the true value play should he draw a start. Flexen has been better at home surprisingly, another reason to not go too far in on the Cubs lineup.
Evan Carter ($2,200) profiles similarly to Crow-Armstrong. He's young and has had limited MLB exposure, but he's 3-for-9 with a homer and a steal in three starts since his promotion.
Josh Naylor ($3,100) looks like a sound one-off. He's hit lefties well enough to the tune of a .352 wOBA, 127 wRC+ and .212 ISO, and has seven hits and six RBI in his last seven games.
Stacks to Consider
Diamondbacks vs. Jose Butto: Corbin Carroll ($3,900), Ketel Marte ($3,500), Christian Walker ($3,300)
Butto has a 6.14 home ERA (6.44 xFIP), allowing 15 of the 37 batters he's faced to reach base. It's been righties doing him in, posting a .384 wOBA, perhaps allowing Walker to break out of his slump. He's hitless in his last 17 at-bats and homerless in his last nine games. Carroll has multiple hits in five of his last 11 games, and is running freely with six steals over his last five games, giving him multiple paths to score fantasy points. Marte rounds this out as he's white hot, collecting hits in 18 of his last 21 games, nine times going for extra bases.
Giants vs. Cal Quantrill: Thairo Estrada ($3,200), Mike Yastrzemski ($2,900), Joc Pederson ($2,600)
While Quantrill has been better in two September starts since a lengthy absence, he still looks like a pitcher that could blow up on this slate. He walks too many (3.1 per nine) and doesn't miss bats (5.2 Ks per nine), and while homers aren't a problem, we look to have favorable double-digit mph winds blowing out in the Bay area, giving the Giants a chance at a few long balls. Quantrill also doesn't have tremendously targetable lefty/righty splits, so we can freely choose from this lineup as budget and positional needs dictate. Yastrzemski is the anchor, he has a team-best .372 wOBA, 143 wRC+ and .259 ISO off righties to date, and is in a groove, with 10 hits, including two homers in his last five games, ascending to the leadoff spot to boot. Estrada has homered in two of his last three and has hit safely in 12 of his last 14. Pederson gives us a third early/middle of the order bat that has 10 hits in his last eight games. He's just 1-for-9 off Quantrill, the most exposure anyone in this lineup has against him, but that one left the park.
