A small five-game slate is all we have Saturday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:35 p.m. EDT. Despite just ten arms to choose from, three are priced in five-figures with one more at $9,500 before falling off a cliff pretty rapifly after. Paying the premium looks to be the necessary evil.
The betting narrative is obvious. The Dodgers (-330) are massive favorites, followed by the Brewers (-245) who also have an elevated 7.5 run expectancy. It looks windy in both of those spots, as well as in Yankee Stadium
Try our FanDuel MLB Lineup Optimizer to discover more expert recommendations, customize the player pool, set exposure percentage and mass-enter DFS lineups.
Pitching
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, LAD vs. LAA ($10,800): I targeted Roki Sasaki against this lineup last night, and he gave us seven shutout innings and 10 Ks. The price here is significantly higher, but the matchup appeal is identical. The Angels lead the league with a 25.3 percent K rate off righties. Yamamoto has been under 30 FDP just three times all year, has a great chance to get a win and quality start in addition to high strikeout totals, and is $400 less than Jacob Misiorowski, who I do like plenty for GPPs if we can get lower roster percentages in Coors Field.
Nolan McLean, NYM at SD ($9,500): McLean lands here almost by default as the cheapest of the four big payup options. He's off three consecutive poor outings however, so the play is more for GPPs as a bounce back candidate. San Diego continues to undewhelm, sitting with a poor .292 wOBA and 87 wRC+ off righties, striking out 23.4 percent of the time. Another bad outing and it may be panic time.
Tanner Bibee, CLE at TEX ($7,800): It's the lowest run total on the slate (8.0) and Bibee is the cheaper of the two starters, so he's also here almost by default as the paydown option I have the most faith in. He's been inconsistent, but it's baked into the price. His 5.96 road ERA comes with a 3.96 xFIP and the Rangers are just league average with a 100 wRC+ off righties. When on, Bibee has shown well capable of exceeding a 4x return, offering some potential for GPPs while creating more flexibility with offensive spend.
Top Targets
The Rockies haven't confirmed their starting/opening plans, but it's looking like a bullpen game for a unit that went four innings last night and allowed eight runs. Jackson Chourio ($4,200) failed us last night, all the more reason to try again.
Stability can be worth more on these compact slates. Being 0-for-8 off Jack Leiter doesn't scream that, but Jose Ramirez ($3,600) looks to be turning the corner, hitting ..360 with a homer and five RBI in his last six.
Bargain Bats
Two things can happen when players are activated from IL after long absences; they struggle with timing initially, but also come with nice salary discounts. Corey Seager ($2,900) and Wyatt Langford ($2,600) fit that bill if you're not trusting what Bibee is throwing.
Griffin Canning has struggled all season against lefties, allowing a .430 wOBA and 1.003 OPS. The Mets likely counter with Jared Young ($2,600) and Carson Benge ($2,900) in top-4 lineup positions. Both players have three homers in their last six.
Sal Frelick ($3,100) has hits in four of five, and can offer a cheaper Brewers option in Denver.
Stack to Consider
Dodgers vs. Jack Kochanowicz (Angels): Shohei Ohtani ($4,200), Freddie Freeman ($3,400), Kyle Tucker ($3,200)
Perhaps is difficult to make the argument for Chourio above when we can take Ohtani for the same price. But perhaps we get slightly less roster percentages due to Milwaukee's ballpark factor. Kochanowicz has a 6.62 road ERA, allowing a .372 wOBA to lefties, so we'll load up there against him. Freeman hit a walk-off homer last night and is hitting .333 with four homers and 12 RBI in his last 13. Tucker simply gives us a third lefty with some potential even if he hasn't gotten going all season.
