Nine games are on the docket Tuesday evening at FanDuel, with first pitch at 7:07 p.m. EDT. Four arms are priced in five figures, but just one additional pitcher checks in above $9,000, so it's a top-heavy slate where you're going to have to choose if paying up is your preference, or if you want to try and sneak 30 FDP out of a lower-priced option and build a stout offense.
Coors Field is on this slate, while the A's are doing a residency at Las Vegas Ballpark, giving us massively elevated run totals of 12.5 or higher and making for clear and obvious targets. Two additional games sit at 9.0 or 9.5, while three are down at 7.5, so this slate sets up rather chalky for both pitching and hitting. There aren't massive favorites, with Atlanta (-154) and the Cubs (-154) leading the way. Keep an eye on wind as the slate gets closer to starting; early reports show double-digit winds in hitters favor in Denver, New York, Kansas City and San Francisco.
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Pitching
Chase Burns, CIN at SDP ($11,200): I wrote the bulk of the hitting portion before pitching, and it became increasingly clear that paying up for an arm is going to be very difficult Tuesday. That also means if you do so and it hits, you'll likely have a massive advantage on your competition thanks to a low roster rate. Burns has a 1.80 road ERA (2.23 xFIP) and fans 12.3 per nine outside of Great American Ball Park. San Diego has a 23.1 percent K rate off righties and a weak .292 wOBA and 87 wRC+. He's gone for at least 40 FDP in four straight, seven of his last eight and nine of 12 overall.
Dustin May, STL at NYM ($8,200): Simply put, no one is afraid of the Mets lineup. New York enters Tuesday with a .295 wOBA, 89 wRC+ and .135 ISO off righties. May's 21.7 percent K rate isn't elite, nor is his 8.1 K/9 rate, but he's fanned nine in each of his last two starts. His 4.59 ERA comes with a better 3.36 FIP, and the 44.8 percent ground ball rate helps alleviate concerns on the wind at Citi Field. This is one of those 7.5 run total games, and May is the cheaper of the two options to consider.
Lucas Giolito, SDP vs. CIN ($7,000): The early returns on Giolito are ugly; he's got a 4.86 ERA (6.65 FIP), and he's walking an obscene 7.0 per nine against just 5.9 strikeouts. Yet the Padres are only slight underdogs and the Reds have a moderate 4.1 run expectancy. Cincinnati fans at a 24.2 percent clip off righties while sporting a below average 92 wRC+. With this seemingly being a hitters' slate, Giolito could get us to a 3x or better return and free up spending elsewhere.
Top Targets
As the intro tells us, there are two clear and obvious games to target. But if you're a multi-entry GPP player, consider a contrarian build around the Nationals' duo of James Wood ($4,500) and CJ Abrams ($4,100). Giants' starter Adrian Houser is getting pelted by lefties, allowing a .452 wOBA overall, a number that climbs to .497 at home with a 1.175 OPS.
How you choose to attack the two high-scoring expected games will clearly define this slate. Shea Langeliers ($4,000) seems fairly priced given his .483 wOBA, 210 wRC+ and .385 ISO off lefties.
Pete Crow-Armstrong ($3,800) is sizzling, hitting .392 with five homers in his last 12. He's not getting a massive Coors Field price increase, and Rockies starter Tomoyuki Sugano is allowing a .409 wOBA and .946 OPS to lefties at home.
Bargain Bats
The White Sox will deploy an opener before turning to Erick Fedde for bulk innings. He's been mashed by righties for a .404 wOBA and .946 OPS. Ronald Acuna ($3,900) is in play at the top end and is 6-for-19 (.316) with three homers off him, but due to the opener, Austin Riley ($2,900) likely gets as many plate appearances against Fedde despite being lower in the order. He's 8-for-22 (.364) with a homer off him.
Tyler Soderstrom ($3,000) is too cheap given this game's total and his current form, hitting .421 with five homers in his last 12.
Colin Rea has been far more hittable on the road (6.19 ERA) and more vulnerable to lefties (.392 wOBA). Jake McCarthy ($3,300) or Willi Castro ($3,100) are set up well, as Edouard Julien ($2,900) would be if he's starting.
Daylen Lile ($3,200) and Luis Garcia ($2,800) offer cheaper entry points to the Nationals lineup against Houser if you prefer to build at the top end from the more obvious high-scoring games.
Stack to Consider
Phillies at Dylan Cease (Blue Jays): Kyle Schwarber ($4,000), Bryce Harper ($3,600), Trea Turner ($3,000)
The obvious choice to stack is the Brewers, but J.T. Ginn doesn't have targetable splits. This column features enough nuggets to point the way to additional stacking opportunities, but I'll highlight this one as a likely low-usage option. It's absolutely boom or bust, and somewhat of a BvP play against a pitcher that's fanning a massive 13.4 per nine and has a 2.57 xFIP, but you've got to try something different in tournaments to win big and Cease is just coming off the IL. Schwarber is 3-for-10 with two homers off the righty, while Turner is 4-for-9. Harper is hitless in two at-bats but gives you the traditional top of the order stack. If you need to pay down, Alec Bohm ($2,700) is hitting .346 with seven RBI in his last seven, and is 3-for-6 off Cease with a long ball.
