This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Yes, Thursday is not the first day of the MLB regular season. Even so, it's still "Opening Day" to me. This is when the 2024 MLB campaign starts with gusto. There are eight games on the slate starting at 4:10 p.m. ET or later. These matchups make up the first DFS slate on DraftKings of the year that isn't just a single game. Here are my recommendations.
Pitching
Tarik Skubal, DET at CWS ($9,100): Skubal didn't have the same hype as a prospect as some of his Tigers compatriots on the mound, but he has emerged as the star of the rotation. He had a 2.95 FIP in 2022 after figuring things out, and last year his FIP dropped all the way to 1.99, with an increase in strikeouts and a drop in walks. Rosters have changed across the majors since last season, but the White Sox ranked 29th in runs scored last year, and if anything the roster looks worse in 2024.
Mitch Keller, PIT at MIA ($8,300): What version of Keller will we see this season? I don't know, and I don't think Keller knows either. He's been inconsistent, and often frustrating, but the reason for the frustration is that he really flashes potential, sometimes for sizeable stretches. Last year he had a 3.80 FIP, with his highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate since he made 11 starts as a rookie. The Marlins surprisingly made the playoffs last season, but they didn't really do anything to improve an offense that ranked 26th in runs scored.
Yu Darvish, SD vs. SF ($8,200): Darvish arguably has a slight advantage on the Giants' hitters, in that he got to make a proper regular season start to help get in gear. While the Padres held him to 3.2 innings, Darvish only gave up two hits, and the one run the Dodgers scored on him was unearned. The Giants should be better than the team that had a .695 OPS and finished 24th in runs scored last year, but to even be above average they would have to improve quite a bit.
Top Targets
Bright spots for the Royals are few and far between, but Bobby Witt ($6,200) is certainly a cause for celebration in Kansas City, especially now that he's signed long term. He has room for improvement — like a lot of young hitters, he's allergic to walks — but he's coming off a campaign where his 30 homers and 49 stolen bases would have really turned heads if Ronald Acuna didn't exist. I've been seeing some Pablo Lopez Cy Young buzz, but that feels a bit odd for a pitcher with a career 3.86 ERA coming off a season with a 3.66 ERA.
Even though he only played in 90 games, Jose Altuve ($5,500) slashing .311/.393/.522 stands out. Last season he was better against righties and on the road, but the season prior he was decidedly better against lefties and at home, so I am not worried about that. Nestor Cortes has been pressed into an Opening Day start due to Gerrit Cole's injury issues. A rotator cuff injury may have played into Cortes' struggles in 2023 — it certainly truncated his campaign — but a 4.97 ERA across 12 starts is still not good.
Bargain Bats
After a couple seasons in Atlanta, Eddie Rosario ($3,100) now finds himself in Washington. The lefty hit 21 homers and 24 doubles last year, and the southpaw should be a staple in the lineup whenever a righty is starting. Speaking of newcomers, Frankie Montas is now pitching for the Reds. He has a career 3.90 ERA, and that's with spending the bulk of his career in Oakland's pitcher-friendly park.
The Tigers are quite lefty-heavy, but Mark Canha ($3,900) brings a steady veteran presence and a right-handed bat to the lineup. He doesn't have a ton of power, but he hit 11 homers and 11 stolen bases last year, and he had an .826 OPS against left-handed pitchers. Garrett Crochet, a lefty, won't just be making his first Opening Day start. He's making his first MLB start period, having exclusively pitched out of the bullpen to this point.
Stack to Consider
Dodgers vs. Cardinals (Miles Mikolas): Freddie Freeman ($5,900), Will Smith ($4,800), James Outman ($4,400)
Mikolas is the antithesis of the idea of "three true outcomes" in baseball. He doesn't allow many walks or homers, but also struck out a mere 6.12 batters per nine innings last season. That means a lot of balls in play, and Mikolas was hit pretty extensively last year. His 4.78 ERA was fueled in part by a 38.8 groundball percentage, which was a new low. Righties hit .279 against him, while lefties hit .285. He's 35 now, and he's had an ERA over 4.00 in three of his last four campaigns. The best lineup in baseball should be able to manage, right?
Freeman may be 34 himself, but given that he posted a .977 OPS and hit a staggering 59 doubles last season, I'm not worried about his age, at least at the plate. What makes him so formidable is that he's a lefty that isn't neutralized by southpaws coming out of the bullpen. Since 2022 he has a .924 OPS against left-handed pitchers. The catcher position is a necessity in a DraftKings lineup, and Smith is a catcher with a career .262/.358/.484 slash line. He had an .829 OPS at Dodger Stadium in 2023, and he hit 13 of his 19 home runs there as well. Outman's rookie year secured him a spot as the center fielder for the Dodgers going forward. He had 23 homers and 16 stolen bases, but also had a .353 OBP. The southpaw had an .836 OPS versus right-handed pitchers as well.
