This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets: Expert MLB Picks for
Wednesday, September 25
- Year-to-Date Record: 163-163-1
- +Prior Article: 2-1 ( +1.85 units)
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MLB Betting Tips
MLB SPLITS
I lean on splits more than any other metric for baseball. I look at starting pitcher (full season) and team (last 30 days) home/road splits and vs. right-handed pitchers/left-handed pitchers splits to get enough of a sample size but also recency. This is where you can find value because oddsmakers do not bake these into the lines.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check the weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. When summer temperatures and humidity rise, scoring may see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game. The bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a first five innings (F5) play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution against playing any totals (especially team totals) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an under.
Don't place any wagers on the best online sportsbooks without first making sure you have the most current MLB odds to help you make an informed bet.
MLB Unit Betting Guide
Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting on baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet:
- 1.5 - 2.0 units (Best Bets - typically a full game total or ML/RL play)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals Strongest Plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
Tampa Bay Rays 
at Detroit Tigers 
The Tigers won the first game in the series 2-1 thanks to Tarik Skubal pitching another gem. Now we get Zack Littell, who has 1.41 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in his last eight starts, versus Keider Montero. The Tigers are in the middle of the American League Wild Card race.
Montero has been very hit-or-miss this season, but he has a huge home/road split edge. His home/road splits since August 1st:
- Home: 2.03 ERA, 0.90 WHIP
- Road: 6.12 ERA, 1.56 WHIP
The Rays are 9-1 to the under in their last 10 games and are averaging just 2.4 runs per game. The Tigers have averaged only 3.4 runs per game in their last 10.
MLB Picks for Rays at Tigers
- Rays-Tigers Under 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-100 at BetMGM)
Kansas City Royals 
at Washington Nationals 
I was on the Nationals +1.5 for most of the day when I was researching for yesterday's article. I ended up going with the Moneyline and going for the plus-money, which cost me, as the Nationals lost 1-0. But the takeaway is that I was on the right path and we can use that result for today's game.
The Royals are not hitting and I want to continue riding that wave. They are starting Michael Lorenzen in a likely bullpen game. The Royals' pen has been strong all season as a top-three unit.
DJ Herz has been solid over his last 10 starts before his last one against the Mets. His stat line from the 10 starts:
- 49 innings
- 2.76 ERA
- 1.08 WHIP
- 10.5 K/9
- 1.7 runs/start
Lorenzen is coming off a hamstring injury, which should limit his innings, but his numbers since July 28 have been strong: 1.91 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. The Royals are 14-5-1 to the under in their last 20 games. The Nationals are 7-3 to the under in their last 10 games.
MLB Picks for Royals at Nationals
- Royals-Nationals Under 8 Runs for 1 Unit (-118 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Pittsburgh Pirates 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
One of the trends I like to exploit is when a team is out of contention against a team still in contention. I look at the team out of contention over the last 10 games on the hitting and pitching side to see if they have given up. In the Pirates' case, they have only averaged 2.2 runs per game in their last 10 games.
Freddy Peralta is on the bump for the Brewers. Walks are always an issue, but he has been strong in his last seven starts, recording a 2.19 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. The juice is a bit on the under, but it is 3.5 runs as opposed to 2.5 runs with plus-money.
MLB Picks for Pirates at Brewers
- Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Rays-Tigers Under 7.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-100 at BetMGM)
- Royals-Nationals Under 8 Runs for 1 Unit (-118 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Pirates Team Total Under 3.5 Runs for 1 Unit (-140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
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