This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets: World Series Expert Picks for Diamondbacks vs. Rangers, Game 1
Season: 129-157-2 -55.65 units
Prior Article: 1-4 -2.00 units
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Arizona Diamondbacks at Texas Rangers
The last two games between the Diamondbacks and Phillies were not kind to me, as I (like most people) had the Phillies taking Game 6 or 7 and winning the series.
Now, we have Game 1 of the World Series between the Dbacks and Rangers with Zac Gallen against Nathan Eovaldi. I will go back to the home/road splits of Gallen, which over the course of the season have been significant.
Gallen's home splits are excellent: 2.47 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, 10.6 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9. On the road, he's been a different pitcher: 4.42 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 8.3 K/9, 2.4 BB/9 and 1.3 HR/9. In his four postseason starts, he has a 5.29 ERA, 1.67 WHIP, 13 strikeouts and nine walks. His road ROI was -$298, compared to +$262 at home. Eovaldi's playoff numbers have been excellent in his four starts, as he has a 2.49 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, striking out 28 while walking four. His overall ROI was $549 ($242 at home, $307 on the road, and +$641 over his last nine starts).
Corey Seager has 12 walks in 12 games and gets the left-handed hitter vs. right-handed pitcher edge along with Gallen's awful recent history and road splits. Evan Carter has been hitting third against right-handers, in front of Adolis Garcia, and has a total of 25 (H+R+RBI) in 12 games.
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MLB Best Bets for Diamondbacks at Rangers
- Rangers -0.5 F5 for 1 unit (DraftKings -110)
- Evan Carter OVER 1.5 H+R+RBI for 0.5 unit (DraftKings -105)
- Corey Seager OVER 0.5 walks for 0.5 unit (DraftKings +135)