This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Picks for Friday March 28th
Previous article 2-2 (+0.47 units)
Season 3-9 (-5.73 units)
The first day of baseball is in the books and while we were on the positive side, it was frustrating to see the 3 underdog parlay colaspe from bad bullpens. The Nationals wasted a gem from MacKenzie Gore (13 strikeouts), and the A's gave up two bombs in the 8th to the Mariners. That is the life of going with underdogs, and for what it is worth, I played around with going F5 on that parlay on the A's/Nationals because of a low run environment and bad bullpens. Lesson learned moving forward.
Some Opening Day observations: NEVER take a bad team laying juice like -130 or higher. We saw this with the Angels and the Pirates. It does not matter how BAD the White Sox and Marlins are, they will win 50-60 games and chances are they will be at home against bad teams.
There are two parts to handicapping baseball games - the first 5 innings and the latter 4. I cannot stress enough how important it is to know the bullpens and usage. We saw the Guardians shut down the Royals yesterday and I got lucky on that one going over 3.5 runs as they got a sac fly off Emmanuel Clase in the 9th.
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Best MLB Bets Today
Detroit Tigers at Los Angeles Dodgers Picks
Thursday's game between these two teams was competitive as the Dodgers pulled out a 5-4 win, but that was with the Tigers' ace Tarik Skubal on the mound against Blake Snell. Friday's game brings a much different pitching matchup with Jack Flaherty against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. I expect Yamamoto to have a huge year. We know the Dodgers are going to put up at least 5 to 6 runs. This line opened Dodgers -190 and is now up to -225.
I am going to be cautious when taking the Dodgers this year because of their prices, but when they are at home laying -1.5 runs at a reasonable price, I will be firing.
MLB Best Bet: Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -102)
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Chicago Cubs at Arizona Diamondbacks Picks
I love both teams' offenses and we get Jameson Taillon against Merrill Kelly, which is favorable for the bats. Taillon was considerably worse on the road in 2024 with a 4.58 ERA and 1.22 WHIP versus a 2.18 ERA and 1.06 at Wrigley. Kelly only pitched 73 innings in 2024 and gave up 1.6 HR/9 at home.
Both lineups are balanced throughout the entire order, and we already saw 16 runs put up in yesterday's game with both teams' aces going. Shop around for the 8.5 and lay the juice instead of taking the 9.0s, which really means you need 10 runs. I don't do player props here, but I would be on Kyle Tucker for a home run today.
MLB Best Bet: Cubs/Dbacks OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (ESPN Bet -120)
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Pittsburgh Pirates at Miami Marlins Picks
The Marlins are a bottom-three team in baseball and the Pirates' offense is terrible as well. I went with the UNDER 1.5 runs in F3 yesterday with the two aces on the mound. Today is a different story with Mitch Keller against Connor Gillispie. But these lineups are still bad and in an extreme pitchers' park.
With these two lineups, I just do not see how they are going to be able to put up any runs unless there are a lot of unearned runs or extra innings.
You probably will not need it, but shop around for the 8.5 total as there are more 8.0s in the marketplace right now. This has the feeling of a 4-1 or 4-2 type of game.
MLB Best Bet: Pirates/Marlins UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -120)
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MLB Picks Recap
- Dodgers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel -102)
- Cubs/Dbacks OVER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (ESPN Bet -120)
- Pirates/Marlins UNDER 8.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -120)
