MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Wednesday, May 20
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Season 43-47-1 -5.03 units
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Boston Red Sox vs. Kansas City Royals Best Bets and Predictions
The Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals wrap up their three-game series Wednesday night at Kauffman Stadium, and the best betting angle points toward the under on the total. Boston enters at 21-27 and fourth in the AL East, while Kansas City sits 20-29 and fifth in the AL Central. The Red Sox have already taken the first two games of the series by scores of 3-1 and 7-1, with both games staying under the total.
Current MLB odds list Kansas City around -120 on the moneyline, Boston near +100, the run line at Royals -1.5 (+150), and the total at 7.5 runs with slight juice to the under.
The pitching matchup strongly supports a lower-scoring environment. Boston sends left-hander Connelly Early to the mound, while Kansas City counters with veteran Michael Wacha. Early has posted a 3.21 ERA with a 4.18 xERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.41 xFIP and 4.22 SIERA. He owns a solid 23.4% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 2.69 K/BB ratio, helping Boston limit big innings despite inconsistent run support.
Wacha continues to quietly produce one of the more underrated seasons in the American League. The Royals right-hander enters with a 2.83 ERA, 3.91 xERA, 4.14 FIP, 4.08 xFIP and 4.02 SIERA across 57.1 innings. Wacha owns a 21.1% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 2.61 K/BB ratio while continuing to suppress hard contact with his changeup-heavy arsenal.
Recent trends also favor the under. Over their last 10 games, Boston ranks in the bottom third of MLB in SLG while averaging just 3.9 runs per game. Kansas City is 2-8 over its last 10 games and has scored four runs or fewer in seven of those contests. The Royals bullpen has quietly improved as well, posting a sub-3.50 ERA over the past two weeks.
Weather conditions at Kauffman Stadium should also help pitchers, with temperatures expected around 64 degrees and light winds around 8-10 mph.
Between two inconsistent offenses, favorable weather and a pair of starters capable of limiting damage, the under 7.5 stands out as one of the stronger MLB best bets on Wednesday's slate.
Best Bet: Red Sox/Royals UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +102)
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels Best Bets and Predictions
The Athletics and Los Angeles Angels wrap up their AL West series Wednesday night in Anaheim. The betting value points toward the Athletics on the moneyline. The A's enters at 24-24 and third in the AL West, while Los Angeles sits 19-30 and last in the division. The series has been competitive through the first two games, but the Athletics hold the edge entering the finale thanks to a more reliable pitching profile and stronger recent underlying metrics.
Current MLB odds list the A's around -115 on the moneyline, the Angels near -105, the run line at Athletics -1.5 (+145), and the total sitting at 8.5 runs.
The pitching matchup favors the A'swith veteran right-hander Aaron Civale taking the mound against Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz. Civale enters with a 4.08 ERA but significantly stronger advanced metrics, including a 3.74 xERA, 3.81 FIP, 3.92 xFIP and 3.85 SIERA. He has also posted a strong 22.8% strikeout rate, 6.4% walk rate and elite 3.56 K/BB ratio. Civale's ability to limit walks and weak contact has helped stabilize the Athletics rotation over the last month.
Kochanowicz has struggled more consistently for Los Angeles, entering with a 5.02 ERA, 4.89 xERA, 4.77 FIP, 4.84 xFIP and 4.69 SIERA. The Angels right-hander owns just an 18.7% strikeout rate with a concerning 9.1% walk rate and 2.05 K/BB ratio. His inability to consistently miss bats creates problems against patient lineups capable of extending at-bats.
Recent team trends also support Oakland. The Athletics are 6-4 over their last 10 games and have quietly improved offensively, ranking near the middle of MLB in OPS during that stretch. The Angels are just 3-7 over their last 10 while continuing to strike out at one of the highest rates in baseball. Los Angeles has also posted one of the weaker bullpen ERAs in the American League over the past two weeks.
Weather conditions should be neutral in Anaheim, with temperatures around 66 degrees and light evening winds expected.
Between the starting pitching edge, superior recent form and bullpen advantage, the Athletics moneyline stands out as one of the better MLB betting picks on Wednesday's late slate.
Best Bet: Athletics ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -123)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Best Bets and Predictions
The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Diego Padres close out their NL West showdown Wednesday night at Petco Park, and the betting value points toward the Padres on the moneyline and run line.
Los Angeles enters at 31-18 and first in the NL West, while San Diego sits 27-22 and third in the division. The Dodgers have taken two of the first three games in the series, but the Padres remain one of the more dangerous home underdogs on the MLB slate thanks to their bullpen strength and matchup profile against elite velocity.
The pitching matchup features Shohei Ohtani against Padres right-hander Randy Vasquez. Ohtani has been dominant overall, entering with a 2.91 ERA, 3.04 xERA, 3.12 FIP, 3.19 xFIP and elite 2.98 SIERA. The Dodgers superstar owns a massive 31.8% strikeout rate, just a 6.9% walk rate and a 4.61 K/BB ratio. However, San Diego's lineup profiles well against power fastballs and has consistently generated quality at-bats at home against high-strikeout pitchers.
Vásquez enters with a 4.11 ERA, 4.28 xERA, 4.35 FIP, 4.22 xFIP and 4.18 SIERA. While his strikeout numbers remain modest at 20.4%, he has improved his command significantly over the last month with a manageable 7.8% walk rate and 2.62 K/BB ratio. The Padres have also gone 5-2 in his last seven starts, with the bullpen consistently protecting late leads behind one of the top relief units in the National League.
Recent trends support San Diego as a live underdog. The Padres are 7-3 over their last 10 games while ranking top 10 in MLB in team OPS during that stretch. Los Angeles remains explosive offensively, but the Dodgers bullpen has shown signs of fatigue after heavy usage throughout the series.
Weather conditions at Petco Park should remain neutral, with temperatures around 67 degrees and light winds expected during the evening.
Best Bet: Padres +1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -113)
Wednesday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Red Sox/Royals UNDER 8.0 runs for 1 unit (FanDuel +102)
- Athletics ML for 1 unit (DraftKings -123)
- Padres +1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -113)
