Top MLB Betting Picks for Thursday, May 14
MLB 2026 betting record: 11-15-1, -5.05 units
Thursday's baseball slate is busier than usual, featuring 11 games on the schedule. That gives us plenty of MLB betting options today.
I'm recommending four picks, including a play on the Houston Astros' sputtering offense this afternoon and a pair of predictions on the Kansas City Royals tonight.
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Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago Cubs Best Bets and Predictions
Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases (+130 BetMGM)
Olson is one of six players slugging north of .600 with an OPS over 1.000. Only four players have hit more than his 14 homers, and, more importantly, no player does a better job at cashing this prop.
The Braves' slugging first baseman has recorded two-plus total bases in a whopping 67.4% of his games, per Team Rankings, which is easily the top mark in MLB. For context, during each of their triumphant MVP seasons, neither Aaron Judge nor Shohei Ohtani ever approached 60%.
Olson will slow, but right now he's sizzling. He's been mashing all season, hitting at home and on the road, and has done damage against both lefties and righties. Tonight, he'll enjoy a platoon advantage and he's responded with a .313/.402/.698 line with 10 bombs in that situation this season.
Atlanta and Olson will see Chicago righty Ben Brown to start, though he's unlikely to work deep. Brown was pitching out of the bullpen before making his first start of the season last week, throwing just 46 pitches. The Cubs will surely need to rely on their relievers, a group that hasn't been overly impressive.
The implied probability of this +130 price is 43%, giving us tremendous value on one of the game's most powerful hitters.
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Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox Best Bets and Predictions
Royals moneyline (-130 BetMGM)
Royals over 2.5 runs, first five innings (+114 DraftKings)
White Sox starter Anthony Kay has limited damage in consecutive outings and had his best start of the season in April against these same Royals. But he's been walking a tightrope — too many walks, not enough strikeouts, a lot of hard contact — and is liable for a blowup at any moment.
He does have a soft landing vs. the light-hitting Royals, who have been particularly weak against southpaws. But Kansas City starter Kris Bubic offers upside that Kay simply doesn't possess. As a result, I'm comfortable backing the Royals to avoid the sweep on the road at this playable price.
Bubic also had his best start of the season when these teams met in April (11 strikeouts over seven innings) and has been pretty good since.
Both teams have subpar bullpens that have absorbed innings this series, including White Sox closer Seranthony Dominguez, who has appeared in consecutive games. Kansas City has the pitching edge and should do enough offensively to come away with the win.
The top of the Royals' lineup is particularly attractive. Right-handed hitters Maikel Garcia and Bobby Witt Jr. are excellent options to produce, but their prop prices aalready factor in that Kay has been pummeled by righties (.343/.429/.600 line). So I'm betting on them to deliver in this matchup in a roundabout way, putting down a plus-money play on the Royals' team total through the first five innings.
Kay has an expected batting average against of .296 and a 6.70 xERA, both inside the 10th percentile, per Baseball Savant.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros Best Bets and Predictions
Astros over 4.5 runs (+120 FanDuel)
Houston has only plated five-plus runs once in its last 10 games. The Astros are scuffling right now, but I see a good opportunity for their bats to break out with Luis Castillo on the bump.
Despite a strong bullpen to follow him, teams are 6-2 against this line over Castillo's eight starts. The Astros have already cleared this once, pounding Castillo for seven runs on 10 hits in his shortest outing of the season, just over a month ago.
Castillo showed warning signs last year as his strikeout rate plummeted and his hard-hit rate exploded, two things that have carried over to 2026. Once known as a strikeout arm, Castillo isn't even punching out batters at a league-average rate and he's surrendering as much hard contact as nearly any pitcher in the game.
It has led to a 6.57 ERA and at least four runs allowed in 75% of his outings. Castillo has a cozy home stadium, but he's pitched considerably worse outside of it over the last few years, and carries a 7.50 road ERA into today's outing at Houston's Daikan Park.
MLB Picks Recap
- Matt Olson over 1.5 total bases (+130 BetMGM)
- Royals moneyline (-130 BetMGM)
- Royals Over 2.5 runs, First Five innings (+114 DraftKings)
- Astros over 4.5 runs (+120 FanDuel)
