MLB Best Bets Today: MLB Betting Picks for Friday, May 22
Prior article 2-1 +1.32 units
Season 45-48-1 -3.71 units
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Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels Best Bets and Predictions
The Texas Rangers open a weekend AL West series against the Los Angeles Angels on Friday night, and the best betting value points toward the Rangers on the run line at -1.5 runs. Texas enters 24-25 and third in the AL West, while Los Angeles sits 17-34 and near the bottom of the American League standings. The Rangers have quietly started playing better baseball recently, while the Angels continue to struggle with run prevention and bullpen consistency.
Current MLB odds list Texas around -168 on the moneyline, with the Rangers -1.5 run line available near even money (+100 to +102). The total is sitting between 7.5 and 8 runs depending on the sportsbook.
The pitching matchup strongly favors Texas with Jacob deGrom taking the mound against Angels right-hander Grayson Rodriguez. deGrom enters with a 3.02 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 61 strikeouts in 50.2 innings while continuing to post elite swing-and-miss numbers. His Stuff+ profile remains among the best in baseball thanks to his fastball velocity, slider shape and command metrics.
Rodriguez, meanwhile, is still working back into form after returning from injury earlier this week. In his Angels debut against the Dodgers, he allowed seven runs in 3.2 innings and enters Friday with a 17.18 ERA and 3.00 WHIP. While Rodriguez still possesses high-end raw stuff, his command and workload remain major concerns following shoulder inflammation and last season's elbow surgery.
Recent trends also support Texas. Over the last two weeks, the Rangers bullpen has stabilized while the lineup has shown more power and has consistently performed well against below-.500 teams recently.
The Angels continue carrying one of the weakest pitching staffs in baseball with a team ERA above 4.40 and ongoing bullpen volatility. Los Angeles has also struggled badly against elite right-handed pitching this season.
With a massive starting pitching edge, superior bullpen form and a favorable matchup against an Angels team trending downward, the Rangers -1.5 run line stands out as one of the strongest MLB betting picks on Friday's slate.
Best Bet: Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies Best Bets and Predictions
Current MLB odds list Philadelphia around -178 on the moneyline, Cleveland near +150, the run line at Phillies -1.5 (+105), and the total sitting at 7 runs across most sportsbooks.
The pitching matchup is the biggest reason the under stands out as one of the strongest MLB betting picks on Friday's slate. Philadelphia sends left-hander Cristopher Sanchez to the mound against Cleveland right-hander Gavin Williams. Sanchez enters with a 2.72 ERA, 3.01 xERA, 3.08 FIP, 3.19 xFIP and elite 2.94 SIERA across 62.2 innings. The Phillies left-hander has also posted a dominant 28.9% strikeout rate, 5.8% walk rate and outstanding 4.98 K/BB ratio while generating one of the best ground-ball profiles in baseball.
Williams has quietly produced strong underlying metrics of his own despite some inconsistency. The Cleveland right-hander enters with a 3.84 ERA, 3.62 xERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.71 xFIP and 3.66 SIERA. Williams owns a 27.1% strikeout rate and continues generating elite swing-and-miss numbers with his fastball-slider combination. His ability to miss bats has helped Cleveland remain competitive despite recent offensive struggles.
Weather conditions at Citizens Bank Park should slightly favor pitchers with temperatures expected in the mid-60s and modest evening winds.
With two high-end strikeout arms, elite underlying pitching metrics and both bullpens trending upward recently, the under 7 runs stands out as one of the sharpest MLB betting angles on Friday night's slate.
Best Bet: Guardians/Phillies UNDER 7 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -118)
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Best Bets and Predictions
Current MLB odds list Minnesota around -118 on the moneyline, Boston near +100, the run line at Twins -1.5 (+145), and the total sitting at 8 runs across most sportsbooks.
The pitching matchup features Minnesota right-hander Connor Prielipp against Boston starter Hunter Dobbins. Prielipp continues flashing elite raw stuff early in his major league career, carrying a fastball-slider combination that has generated strong swing-and-miss numbers. The Twins right-hander enters with a 3.48 ERA, 3.61 xERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.68 xFIP and 3.59 SIERA while posting a 27.4% strikeout rate and limiting hard contact effectively.
Dobbins has quietly produced solid underlying metrics for Boston despite inconsistent run support. The Red Sox right-hander enters Friday with a 3.92 ERA, 3.88 xERA, 3.97 FIP, 4.05 xFIP and 3.94 SIERA. He has also generated a respectable 23.1% strikeout rate with improved command over his last several outings. Boston's bullpen has stabilized recently as well after struggling earlier in the season.
Recent trends strongly support a lower-scoring game. Over the last 14 days, Minnesota ranks top 10 in MLB in team ERA and bullpen ERA while Boston has averaged fewer than four runs per game during that same span. The Red Sox offense continues carrying elevated strikeout rates against quality right-handed pitching, while the Twins have played seven unders in their last 10 games entering Friday.
Weather conditions at Fenway Park should also slightly favor pitchers, with temperatures expected in the low 60s and modest evening winds.
With both starters carrying strong strikeout profiles, improved recent bullpen form on both sides and two offenses that have struggled for consistency lately, the under 8 runs stands out as one of the sharper MLB betting picks on Friday night's slate.
Best Bet: Twins/Red Sox UNDER 7.5 runs for 0.5 unit (The Score -102)
Friday's Best Bets and Predictions
- Rangers -1.5 runs for 1 unit (BetRivers -105)
- Guardians/Phillies UNDER 7 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -118)
- Twins/Red Sox UNDER 7.5 runs for 0.5 unit (The Score -102)
- Cardinals/Reds OVER 9.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -105)
- Braves -1.5 runs for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -106)
