This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB ALDS Picks and Props for Wednesday, October 9
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2024 Postseason Betting Record: 1-1 (+0.16 RW Bucks)
2024 Postseason Props Betting Record: 0-2 (-2.00 RW Bucks)
The Yankees and Royals meet for a pivotal Game 3 at Kauffman Stadium on Wednesday night, a game that features a gem of a pitching matchup between Clarke Schmidt and Seth Lugo. As customary, we break down multiple game and player prop bets to consider for this postseason clash.
New York Yankees vs. Kansas City Royals Best Bets
The Yankees let one slip away at home in Game 2 on Monday night, taking a 4-2 loss to the Royals in which Carlos Rodon suffered through some early trouble. They'll turn to a true road warrior in Schmidt on Wednesday, with the right-hander having fashioned a tiny 1.39 ERA, 9.1 K/9 and 0.4 HR/9 across 45.1 innings outside Yankee Stadium this season.
Schmidt will be pitching on nine days' rest and should have plenty of reserves in his arm at this stage of the year, considering he was limited to 16 starts overall this season – including five, all in September, from May 27 on – due to a lat strain. Schmidt fared well against both-handedness of hitters and held opposing bats to a .211 average and .262 wOBA on the road. It's also worth noting the Royals finished the regular season underperforming against right-handed pitching at home, as evidenced by their .213 average, .564 OPS and an American League-worst .254 wOBA and -15.8 wRAA in that split (350 plate appearances).
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On the other side, Lugo put together a stellar debut campaign in Kansas City, recording a career-high 16 wins and 206.2 innings along the way. The veteran righty was solid at Kauffman with a 3.36 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and 0.7 HR/9 across 107 innings. Lugo also completely flummoxed the Yankees in his most recent appearance against them on September 10, tossing seven shutout innings during which he recorded 10 strikeouts at Yankee Stadium. His one encounter with them at home came back on June 10. While he wasn't quite as dominant, Lugo still put together a respectable outing – seven innings, eight hits allowed, four earned runs allowed, one walk and four strikeouts.
Lugo will also be on plenty of rest after last having taken the hill last on September 28 in which he threw just 36 pitches over two innings. Consequently, despite the offensive talent on either side, I'm leaning toward a lower-scoring start to a game that is seen as extremely close by oddsmakers all the way around. My prop bet on Schmidt also backs this idea, and the one bet related to offensive success I'm eyeing is for Juan Soto's total bases prop, considering his talent and the fact he's had plenty of experience facing Lugo (.278 average over 28 career plate appearances), who had far more trouble with lefty bats than right-handed hitters this season.
MLB Best Bets for Yankees vs. Royals
- Under 2.5 Runs F3 (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Under 4.5 Runs F5 (-120 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Clarke Schmidt Over 13.5 Outs Recorded (-110 on DraftKings Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Juan Soto Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130 on BetMGM Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
